Sierra91

Russia doesn't just attack a country, it spends years, if not decades, fomenting dissent in that country causing confusion on the issue and blurring the lines so it could appear as a simple intervention and not a war. If you want to see where they will attack next, that's what to watch.

And Russia wouldn't just be brought back into the world as if nothing happened, many sanctions would still apply. It likely wouldn't target Ukraine again, but plenty of other former Soviet states it could start causing problems for.

Just because they are in a position of weakness doesn't mean they will lose it all. They might just decide the cost of gaining more isn't worth it, so just ceasefire along current lines. The ceasefire will happen when Russia realizes it can't win, not that it has lost.

What reasons? I don't think the war will end, I think there will at best be a ceasefire with no formal end to hostilities. Call it peace, but it's not. Likely sabotage/cyber attacks will continue behind the scenes. Ukraine will wait for a chance, when Russia starts another war.

Just because the US isn't making it better doesn't mean they can't make it worse.

Ukraine isn't surrendering, but they might make the decision to fight in the future. Strategy is more than just thinking about if you can win this one fight, you have to be in it for the long run.

That's why Ukraine also invested in European aid defence systems. But the EU manufacturing capacity also isn't able to keep up, and many systems still use US controlled technologies (detection, targeting and parts). It will take years to fully divest from the US in this area

You suggested looking beyond Trump. That's either 3 years away, or looking somewhere else and not the US. PURL is more effective than what was there before, which was nothing when Trump cut off aid. It was always known export of Patriot missiles couldn't keep up with demand, not a big surprise

The only other countries that could supply these items in quantities are China and.... Russia.

But you can't look beyond the US and still fight the war in Ukraine as it is. From Patriot missiles, HIMARS ammuntions, precision 155mm shells, air to air missiles, aircraft maintenance parts. So much is supplied by US manufacturing or has parts regulated for export by the US.

He also wants to be seen as someone who can do the impossible. He wants to be the guy "who did it, when no one said it could be done!", even when people are saying it shouldn't be done. He said he would end the war in 24 hours, and every day it goes on makes him look like a narrow sighted fool.

By staying at the table he appears to be willing, maybe more willing than Russia, to bring about peace. And Trump just wants a peace deal, he doesn't care about the details, he just wants to show people he "fixed it". By appearing willing to negotiate, Zelenskyy has more room to maneuver

Or Zelenskyy could refuse to negotiate and watch as the US pressures him into it by, say, limiting intel sharing, refusing resale of US munitions from EU countries to Ukraine, nothing direct but enough to make Ukraines position very difficult.

Ok, that made me chuckle. "I'm right here!", but a month later 😂

Likely means they are no longer refusing US security guarantees, because they know they will mean nothing anyway. "Yes, they still want all of your territory. But look, they don't mind if we sign a meaningless treaty that we will never uphold and the terms actually hurt you anyway! Progress!"

Maybe just morning.... I've not caught up on all the news yet

It's showing as "blocked" content for me, even though I have no one blocked. And I can't see any of the replies under this post either. Was the account deleted or something?

I don't know if I would describe NATO as a zombie alliance, but everything regarding it has to change. It certainly can't maintain its current shape, attitudes or strategies.

I was going to say this one too

My PC crashed on December to 27th and lost all of the Browser Tab data, so I lost two years of reading and watching. I got my fresh start, just not at a time of my choosing 😂

I have also taken to following journalists and not news outlets, because I can know their biases better and sometimes get a fuller unedited version of the story that was published.

Very good examples. I have taken to just skimming posts now to get a broad view of the news for the day, and then visiting my follows that specialize in a subject I was interested in a few days ago for a more in-depth analysis once the situation has shaken out.

I wouldn't say they are bad now, but they don't have the same integrity as when they started their reporting.

I think a lot of them ended up becoming too broad in their scope. I watched many accounts that focused on specific conflicts or theatres suddenly having to report on areas they weren't familiar with (for example, Ukrainian focused accounts suddenly having to report on North Korea, China and Iran).

I think a lot of accounts went downhill in 2022, many got sucked into the disinformation sphere and didn't have the time or manpower to sort through all of the information. Things are happening so rapidly now on so many fronts that it takes a lot to verify everything that may be happening.

It's why I like Evergreen, they know aviation and so that's what they analyse and post about in depth. But they also report information, without bias and without jumping to conclusions, if they don't feel they know enough to comment.

Yeah for geolocation they are all pretty good, but for analysis it's a mixed bag. I don't think many of them have the in-depth knowledge of varied weapon systems and platforms that make more specialized accounts a better follow.

Evergreen Intel is golden, they are reserved in their opinions and don't tend to comment until they have a bit more information. 95% of their information is either verified or they make sure you know it is unverified and don't take it too seriously. In my opinion they are the gold star for aviation

IntelDoge is 50/50 (or was the last time I looked), Faytuks seemed to be a rumour mill same as OSINTdefender, Aurora Intel was far too opinionated for my taste and ignored a lot of good information if it didn't fit their opinions.

You do amazing work! Always worth supporting that 😁

I just saw the video and thought the same thing haha