Tim Allinger

Just published in @bjpols.bsky.social: @sergipardos.bsky.social and I show that inter-regional moves in pursuit of employment security reduce individual worries about immigration—a mobility pattern that, in the aggregate, reinforces spatial polarization in anti-immigration sentiment. cup.org/3XiB6yD

How do contemporary challenges of backsliding and war interact? We show that interstate conflict boosts support for undemocratic candidates, especially among Republicans who *do not prefer democratic Rs over undemocratic Rs* during interstate conflict.

Out in @bjpols.bsky.social with Lasse Laustsen

Abstract for the article: How does right-wing terrorism affect electoral support for populist radical right parties (PRRPs)? Recent research has produced contrary answers to this question. We argue that only high-intensity attacks, whose motives and targets mirror PRRPs’ nativist agenda, are likely to generate a media backlash that dampens electoral support for PRRPs. We test this argument by combining high-frequency survey and social media data with a natural and survey experimental design. We find that right-wing terror reduced support for the radical right party Alternative für Deutschland after one of the most intense nativist attacks in recent German history. An analysis of all ninety-eight fatal right-wing attacks in Germany between 1990 and 2020 supports our argument. Our findings contribute to an understanding of how political violence triggers partisan detachment and have important implications for media responsibility in the aftermath of terrorist attacks.

🚨 New article out!

“Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right” in @bjpols.bsky.social

👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...

We (Alex De Juan, @juvoss.bsky.social & I) examine how right-wing attacks shape support for the far-right in Germany.

Short summary thread below 👇

Abstract

New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵

American Journal of Political Science | MPSA Journal | Wiley Online Library Concern that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape electoral politics? Prior research asserted a growing left–right divide in immigration attitudes...

Glad to see this out at @ajpseditor.bsky.social! I show that the immigration-crime issue, when salient, can shift leftist cosmopolitans to the Right. This is due to leftist voters being more conservative on crime than leftist parties.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social

Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?

@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions

Thread 🧵1/10

BJPolS abstract discussing the dynamics of mainstream and radical political rhetoric regarding anti-immigrant policies, highlighting differences in societal responses and enforcement norms based on the source of the rhetoric.

NEW -

How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD

"we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians"

- @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of extensive media exposure on public perceptions and normalization. It references specific research surveys conducted on Sky News UK and Australia, analyzing changes in public attitudes and policy effects due to media strategies.

NEW -

Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL

"exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population"

- @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

🚨 working paper (w. @morganlcj.bsky.social @markuswagner.bsky.social): Protesters are not judged equally - even if tactics of groups are similar.

We ran an experiment in 🇩🇪 testing how people react to farmers vs. climate activists blocking roads.

What we find is disturbing:

osf.io/preprints/os...

🚨 My first publication, co-authored with Sylvia Kritzinger & Susanna Bastaroli, is out! In our chapter, we explore how Italians re-elaborate their country’s role in the WWII & the Holocaust.

Available online & in print (EN): www.wallstein-verlag.de/978383535866...

🧵 Some key findings: 👇

🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social

Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios.

osf.io/preprints/os...

Paper abstract: Are some political preferences more costly to express? In this study, we investigate the extent to which individuals face social exclusion for showing far-right political beliefs. We run a field experiment in Madrid where confederates initiate an interaction with random passers-by. We randomize whether the confederate wears a neutral (white) t-shirt or a t-shirt of different parties. Results show that passers-by are more likely to avoid interacting with confederates wearing the t-shirt of a far-right party (Vox). This finding holds both when we compare this condition against the neutral t-shirt one or the ones where confederates wear a t-shirt of other parties. Analyses of heterogeneity show that this effect is particularly strong in a left-wing neigbourhood. These findings contribute to theories about peer pressure and social punishment, providing evidence of how those processes can extend to the expression of different political views. They provide new insights into the micro-level mechanisms that underpin broader political trends, particularly the rapid and sometimes unexpected electoral growth of far-right parties.

I am very excited to share a new working paper coauthored with @amaliaab.bsky.social.

Using a field experiment, we find that, in the real world, it is more costly to express far-right preferences than other political preferences.

osf.io/preprints/os...

1/8

Does Mainstream Populism Work❓

I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗

Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:

The Impact of Media Framing in Complex Information Environments To what extent do news frames influence public opinion? While a large body of experimental research suggests sizable effects, it is unclear how these findings translate to authentically complex inf...

Now available Open Access:

📰 Does (immigration) framing influence public opinion?

🧵

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Deutscher Bundestag - Unionsgesetz zur Zustrom­begrenzung mit knapper Mehr­heit abgelehnt Der Bundestag hat das sogenannte Zustrombegrenzungsgesetz der CDU/CSU-Fraktion (20/12804) mit knapper Mehrheit abgelehnt. Gegen die Initiative votierten am Freitag, 31. Januar 2025,...

You wonder how the CDU/CSU playing with the "Brandmauer" to AfD last week has influenced German voters? @mafaldapratas.bsky.social @jmfernandes86.bsky.social & I have you covered. We surveyed sample of 2,000 German voters. 🧵with first results 👇. Spoiler: It did not go down as well as CDU/CSU hoped.

🚨 Happy to see one of my PhD papers out at JEPOP
📚 I examine whether MPs' attention to local issues in parliamentary activities affects their re-election chances in party-centred contexts

www.tandfonline.com/eprint/G2HVG...

Ungated version here: eavigano.github.io/papers/jepop...

🚨 Out now in @poppublicsphere.bsky.social
: "Citizens' Preferences for Multidimensional Representation". Jack Blumenau, Fabio Wolkenstein & I investigate citizens' preferences regarding 6 dimensions of representation using surveys conducted in 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇩🇪. Short 🧵(1/10) doi.org/10.1017/S15375

New working paper!

How do protesters' demographics and policy preferences affect politicians' responsiveness to their demands? I find no effects of shared demographics btw. protesters and politicians, but asymmetric responsiveness to left-right policy preferences: gupea.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/...

🚨 New @apsrjournal.bsky.social Paper! 🚨
In “When Migrants Mobilize against Labor Exploitation: Evidence from the Italian Farmlands,” I study how empowering undocumented migrants can reduce labor exploitation and even weaken organized crime.

Thread : 🧵

The super election year is ending, with many winners and losers.

Our new @thejop.bsky.social paper, (@henrikseeberg.bsky.social, @martinbaekgaard.bsky.social ) asks: How do winning and losing candidates see elections?

Spoiler: Losers are more concerned about fairness.
Link: doi.org/10.1086/734240

Thrilled that my article has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social! 🎉 The article argues that low statistical power is a major impediment to acquiring cumulative knowledge on questions concerning cross-national differences: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

🚨 PUBLICATION ALERT 🚨
Excited to share that my article has just been published at @apsrjournal.bsky.social!

It examines voter responses to mainstream party legitimization of (former) pariah parties.

A thread 👇1/n...
doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Postdoctoral positions in Political Science at Aarhus University – Advertising Democracy - Vacancy at Aarhus University Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University

Join our team! 🚨

We are hiring 2 postdocs for the new Advertising Democracy project at Aarhus University.

We are looking for researchers who are passionate about advertisements & citizens’ democratic values in Western democracies.

Feel free to share!👇🏾

bss.au.dk/en/about-aar...

Haha, Germany now on the fast track

Crazy numbers! Though I am still unsure whether this is a methodological issue, or a substantive finding. Will think more about it - thanks Markus!

We now have a preprint!🥳

If you’re interested in understanding why radical voters’ satisfaction with democracy decreases even when they make an electoral breakthrough, we have a mixed-method paper for you with @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social
Here is our draft: osf.io/7bfka 👀

It is super tough to cut down about 40% of 482 submissions for the EPSA behavior section. But I've finished the first evaluations.

Some thoughts, if you are interested:

To all polisky and migcitsky peeps working on migration and/or ethnicity in one form or another, and who are located in or passing through Aarhus this coming spring (Feb-June): Let me know if you'd like to present or participate in the Migration & Ethnicity Workshop at Aarhus University 1/2

Is it possible to phase out coal and still win an election? Yes! Excited that my paper w @fergusgreen.bsky.social
& Mikel González-Eguino on the electoral success of JustTransition policies in coalmining communities is now available OpenAccess at the APSR doi.org/10.1017/S000...

Polisky

Very happy to share that “The Enforcement of Political Norms” (w/ the great @amaliaab.bsky.social) has been accepted for publication at the BJPolS @bjpols.bsky.social.

The accepted version can be found at papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

polisky behaviorsky