Antony Underwood

'When authoritarians seize power, it is crucial to recognize courageous defenders of freedom who rise and resist,' the Norwegian Nobel Committee said as it announced Maria Corina Machado as the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize

Cross-Chapter Box 10 | Policy Attribution – Methodologies for Estimating the Macro-level Impact of Mitigation Policies on Indices of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Authors: Mustafa Babiker (Sudan/Saudi Arabia), Paolo Bertoldi (Italy), Christopher Bataille (Canada), Felix Creutzig (Germany), Navroz K. Dubash (India), Michael Grubb (United Kingdom), Erik Haites (Canada), Ben Hinder (United Kingdom), Janna Hoppe (Switzerland), Yong-Gun Kim (Republic of Korea), Gregory F. Nemet (the United States of America/Canada), Anthony Patt (Switzerland), Yamina Saheb (France), Raphael Slade (United Kingdom) This report notes both a growing prevalence of mitigation policies over the past quarter century (Chapter 13), and ‘signs of progress’ including various quantified indices of GHG mitigation (Table 2.4). Even though policies implemented and planned to date are clearly insufficient for meeting the Paris long-term temperature goals, a natural question is to what extent the observed macro-level changes (global, national, sectoral, technological) can be attributed to policy developments. This Assessment Report is the first to address that question. This box describes the methods for conducting such ‘attribution analysis’ as well as its key results, focusing on the extent to which polices have affected three main types of ‘outcome indices’: • GHG emissions: emissions volumes and trends at various levels of governance including sub- and supra-national levels, and within and across sectors. • Proximate emission drivers: trends in the factors that drive emissions, distinguished through decomposition analyses, notably: energy/GDP intensity and carbon/energy intensity (for energy-related emissions); indices of land use such as deforestation rates (for LULUCF/AFOLU); and more sector-specific component drivers such as the floor area per capita, or passenger kilometres per capita. • Technologies: developments in key low-carbon technologies that are likely to have a strong influence on future em…

Cross-Chapter Box 10 (continued) from micro-level data evaluation, and inference from combining multiple lines of analysis, including expert opinion. Additionally, the literature contains reviews, many of them systematic in nature, that assess and aggregate multiple empirical studies. With these considerations in mind, multiple lines of evidence, based upon the literature, support a set of high-level findings, as illustrated in Figure 1 in this Cross-Chapter Box, as follows. 1. GHG Emissions. There is robust evidence with a high level of agreement that mitigation policies have had a discernible impact on emissions. Several lines of evidence indicate that mitigation policies have led to avoided global emissions to date of several billion tonnes CO2-eq annually. The figure in this box shows a selection of results giving rise to this estimate. As a starting point, one methodologically sophisticated econometric study links global mitigation policies (defined as climate laws and executive orders) to emission outcomes; it estimates emission savings of 5.9 GtCO2 yr–1 in 2016 compared to a no-policy world (Eskander and Fankhauser 2020) (Section 13.6.2). A second line of evidence derives from analyses of the Kyoto Protocol. Countries which took on Kyoto Protocol targets accounted for about 24% of global emissions during the first commitment period (2008–12). The most recent robust econometric assessment (Maamoun 2019) estimates that these countries cut GHG emissions by about 7% on average over 2005–2012, rising over the period to around 12% (1.3 GtCO2-eq yr–1) relative to a no-Kyoto scenario. This isconsistent with estimates of Grunewald and Martinez (2016) of about 800 MtCO2-eq yr–1 averaged to 2009. Developing countries’ emissions reduction projects through the CDM (defined in Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol) were certified as growing to over 240 MtCO2-eq yr–1 by 2012 (UNFCC 2021c). With debates about the full Policies Increase in number of mitigation policies implemente…

Cross-Chapter Box 10 (continued) extent of ‘additionality’, academic assessments of savings from the CDM have been slightly lower, with particular concerns around some non-energy projects (Section 14.3.3.1). A third line of evidence derives from studies that identify policy-related, absolute reductions from historical levels in particular countries and sectors through decomposition analyses (Le Quéré et al. 2019; Lamb et al. 2021), or evaluate the impact of particular policies, such as carbon pricing systems. From a wide range of estimates in the literature (Sections 2.8.2.2 and 13.6), many evaluations of the EU ETS suggest that it has reduced emissions by around 3% to 9% relative to unregulated firms and/or sectors (Schäfer 2019; Colmer et al. 2020), while other factors, both policy (energy efficiency and renewable support) and exogenous trends, played a larger role in the overall reductions seen (Haites 2018). These findings derived from the peer-reviewed literature are also consistent with two additional sets of analysis. The first set concerns trends in emissions, drawing directly from Chapters 2, 6 and 11, showing that global annual emission growth has slowed, as evidenced by annual emission increments of 0.55 GtCO2-eq yr–1 between 2011 and 2019 compared to 1.014 GtCO2-eq yr–1 in 2000 and 2008. This suggests avoided emissions of 4–5 GtCO2-eq yr–1 (see also Figure 1.1d). The second set concerns emissions reductions projected by Annex I governments for 2020 in their fourth biennial reports to the UNFCCC. It is important to note that these are mostly projected annual savings from implemented policies (not ex-post evaluations), and there are considerable differences in countries’ estimation methodologies. Nevertheless, combining estimates from 38% of the total of 2,811 reported policies and measures yields an overall estimate of 3.81 GtCO2-eq yr–1 emission savings (UNFCCC 2020d). 2. Proximate emission drivers. With less overt focus on emissions, studies of trends i…

listen up, climate policies have resulted in the avoidance of greenhouse gases and global emissions would be way higher had we done nothing

here is a wall of text from the IPCC report with evidence

www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/w...

IPCC AR6 WG3 Chapter 14 Cross Chapter box 10 (14-43, line 39)

Every country is warming.

Every country is experiencing more extreme weather events because of climate change, mainly caused by burning fossil fuels. www.ShowYourStripes.info

Time to #ShowYourStripes and start climate conversations to prompt actions to reduce emissions, personally & collectively.

If you grew up in the UK in the 80s/90s, you should check you had all your vaccinations. I just checked and apparently I had a single measles vaccine as a baby and one dose of MMR later, which doesn't fully protect you. Just booked an MMR vaccination in a couple of weeks 🧪

Earth is likely to cross a key climate threshold in two years A new World Meteorological Organization report spells the end of the world’s most famous climate goal.

Earth will warm 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels in just two years, new data shows. Irreversible tipping points — like the melting of Arctic ice sheets or the collapse of coral reefs — are closer at hand than previously believed.

Cuts have consequences, illustrated. As seen on TV 📺

This is a core idea of The Serfdom of the Self, that we're all serfs on the digital land owned by companies who exist to extract value from us, while at the same time stripping us of any rights we have to protect ourselves (and avoiding as much tax as possible).

Why isn’t it raining? One statistic helps us understand climate change—and why we are lurching from droughts to floods to droughts again

For every 1°C rise in global temperature, the water vapour held in the atmosphere increases by 7 per cent. So a warmer world will face both droughts and floods, writes @timsmedley.bsky.social.
www.prospectmagazine...

= FINANCIAL TIMES Probability of above average near-surface temperature* 0 4— Less likely Average More likely →> 1 May to Sep period 2025-29 Nov to Mar period 2025-26 to 2029-30 Predicted temperature patterns over the years 2025-29 show a high probability of temperatures above the 1991-2020 average almost everywhere, with enhanced warming over land.

Global average temperature is expected to rise to almost 2C above preindustrial in the next five years, according to the WMO, with falls in crop yields and more than a third of the world’s population being exposed to extreme heat.

People, I'm sorry but we have to deal with this. Later is too late.

Naomi Klein suggests that the elites that have gathered around Trump share an understanding that they are bringing about the apocalypse. Any opposition to their nihilistic vision must coalesce around a future for this world.

Quite possibly the biggest climate story of the year (especially when we look back on this in a few years' time)

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand...

The text "Stories That Inspire: The 89 Percent Project" superimposed over sand in the desert. Click on post and scroll down for links to today's stories!

And we’re off! Covering Climate Now is proud to announce the launch, TODAY, of a new Joint Coverage Week, focused on the overwhelming majority of people globally who want governments to do more to fight climate change. #The89Percent

⬇️ Scroll down for today's stories! 👀

More than 80% of the world’s reefs hit by bleaching after worst global event on record An ashen pallor and an eerie stillness all that remains where there should fluttering fish and vibrant colours in the reefscape, one conservationist says

‘As if a silent snowfall has descended’: more than 80% of the world’s reefs hit by historic bleaching event

Undergraduate Biology Students’ Climate Change Communication Experiences Indicate a Need for Discipline-Based Education Research on Science Communication Education about Culturally Controversial Scien... Science communication is a key skill for undergraduates, but little research explores how biology students communicate about societally important, yet controversial topics like climate change. In this...

Students often talk with friends & fam about climate, @lizbarnes.bsky.social + colleagues find. But they tend to go heavy on the stats & facts, and don't know how to bring up solutions. They rarely learn how to have effective conversations, and would love training & practice.

Well, guess what! 🧵

Europe ‘Frankly Insane’ To Keep Importing Fossil Fuels, Scientist Says Experts have blasted both the EU and U.S. governments in response to a new report confirming that Europe is the world's fastest warming continent.

🚨NEW: Europe ‘Frankly Insane’ To Keep Importing Fossil Fuels, says @frediotto.bsky.social. There are dozens of stories about the new @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social climate report, so I thought I'd highlight something a little different.

The crisis for UK steel is exposing another – perhaps even bigger – crisis for the UK

Our news media seems incapable of even the most basic factchecking

YES energy for UK steelmakers is costly
NO it's not due to net-zero
YES it is due to GAS

Here's what UK media isn't telling you🧵

Bluesky’s Quest to Build Nontoxic Social Media X and Facebook are governed by the policies of mercurial billionaires. Bluesky’s C.E.O., Jay Graber, says that she wants to give power back to the user.

Profile of @jay.bsky.team & Bluesky!

"The platform is not yet populated enough to qualify as the internet’s new town square." -this metaphor persists but it's the age of 'community gardens' now. I hope they form around common shared values,not partisan identity...

www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...

Climate crisis on track to destroy capitalism, warns top insurer Action urgently needed to save the conditions under which markets – and civilisation itself – can operate, says senior Allianz figure The climate crisis is on track to destroy capitalism, a top insurer has warned, with the vast cost of extreme weather impacts leaving the financial sector unable to operate. The world is fast approaching temperature levels where insurers will no longer be able to offer cover for many climate risks, said Günther Thallinger, on the board of Allianz SE, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies. He said that without insurance, which is already being pulled in some places, many other financial services become unviable, from mortgages to investments. Continue reading...

Climate crisis on track to destroy capitalism, warns top insurer

Piazza Europa
Piazza del Popolo, 15,30h.
Roma.
(Foto:La Repubblica)

About fifty years ago, NASA strapped a message in a bottle to a rocket and flung it into the deep dark
It wasn’t supposed to go this far, but it did. Long past its mission, it’s still out there so far away now that a simple hello takes a day to reach it, and another day to hear if it says hello back

The news has been more than a bit grim of late, so hooray for @carbonbrief.org providing some genuine and really meaningful **good** news: the UK's carbon emissions in 2024 were the lowest since 1872, because demand for fossil fuels just keeps decreasing.

www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...

I fear a great many journalists and even environmental orgs did not read the most recent IPCC report past the Summary for Policymakers. Here's why that is a big problem: that part of the report is the only one that is lobbied to hell and back by politicians. Saudi + US pushed CCS hype into it

Next time someone tells you that the energy transition cannot be done remember:

In 2012 almost 40% of UK electricity was coal.

Since 1 October 2024 it is zero.

This is the moment Britains last coal power plant shut down on 30 September - the end of 142 years of coal.

HT @neso-energy.bsky.social

To preserve our humanity, I think it's important to be offline more. The truth is we can get all the news we need in one or two sittings a day, and then decide what to do about it, one day at a time. Platforms like this one can be helpful, but like everything else in life, dosage matters!

We’ll likely reach 2C of global warming by 2040s. Here’s what that looks like

What we’re witnessing in America is what happens when disordered discourse captures a political party, then the state itself. The Republican Party was the first to fall - abandoning truth for conspiracy, ideology for grievance, and policy for performative outrage.

How can I get involved?

13/ TLDR: there IS something you can do – and there IS still work to be done – to put a check on these channels spreading harmful misinformation.

Here’s 6 easy ways you can get started: stopfundingheat.info/how-can-i-ge...

“But Accu-Weather!!” They get their data from NWS. “But my local TV station has their own radar on a truck!” Sure, and they use it to fill small geographic gaps in the broader radar coverage that’s provided by NWS. “My weather app!” It’s getting its data from NWS.

Big news from The People's Pension: European asset managers will be rewarded for their more responsible approach to climate risk. Pensions will take £28bn will taken away from US asset manager State Street & brought over to Amundi & Invesco. Pension power!