Jérôme Deyris

A framework for central banks navigating political uncertainty in the transition - CETEx This report recommends three principles for coping with the political uncertainty faced by central bankers.

New report out now with @granthamlse.bsky.social CETEx: "A framework for central banks navigating political uncertainty in the transition"

cetex.org/publications...

L’approche néo-schumpeterienne de Philippe Aghion a largement inspiré les politiques économiques en Europe depuis le tournant des années 2000. Et singulièrement celle d’Emmanuel Macron 1/

aucune idée

Hi bsky people - if you care about how the EU seeks to fund all things "social-ecological transformation", which institutional architecture has emerged out of it, and why it is both contested and an unrealized promise: please have a look at our special issue on the politics of sustainable finance 👇

Séance d'envois presse... la date de sortie s'approche !

Congrats!

Come work with us @crestsociology.bsky.social

We are looking for a post-doc with a background in social sciences, interested in NLP and in media & journalism studies.

Details here: www.css.cnrs.fr/post-doctora...

Five Years - 2012 Remaster

En l'honneur de Sarkozy et de son quinquennat qui vient 🎶

open.spotify.com/track/1JIzFh...

🚨New article🚨 Why has the promise of universal ownership been broken, as @benbraun.bsky.social has suggested?

Our argument: because the Big Three are hardly universal. They mainly invest in those that can insulate themselves from environmental harm - big tech & financials in the Global North.
🧵

Tu te demandes si tu es sociologue, historienne ou économiste ? Tu veux tester tes connaissances sur les locutions latines préférées de Bourdieu, ou connaître la différence entre M. Mauss et K. Moss ? Camille François et Altaïr Desprès ont les réponses à ces questions. Version papier seulement.

Ce matin sur Inter, Villeroy de Galhau, gouverneur de la BdF, a joué sur les deux tableaux de l'expert indépendant qui donne en réalité son avis personnel. C'est de bonne guerre (?), mais on a le droit de lui répondre.

Ce que le discours anti-immigré de Starmer produit chez les électeurs anglais
1) baisse des intentions de vote Labour chez leurs propres électeurs
2) aucun gain chez les électeurs de Farage

Actually, research has also challenged the negative correlation between CBI and inflation as a case of confusing cause and effect. CBI is not the *cause* of low inflation. CBI is the *consequence* of a pre-existing sociopolitical consensus on low inflation promoted after the 1970s stagflation.

NEW PUBLICATION - The Great Dane @mathiaslarsen.bsky.social Larsen and I review the differing concepts of state-led approaches to the green transition over the past two decades. We attempt to provide some conceptual coherence to the debate. The article is Open Access.

En avant première, le programme du séminaire "action publique" que je co-anime avec les collègues de @univ-spn.bsky.social. Au programme, de supers séances sur des thèmes d'actualité comme le mal-logement, les socialisations enfantines ou l'actualité des partis et mouvements politiques.

Central bankers as neutral, science-based policymakers? A new study in @jcms-eu.bsky.social co-authored by @jdeyris.bsky.social and Matthias Thiemann shows that ECB governors, depending on the inflation "season", make selective use of data, theories and indicators to adapt to national preferences. ⤵️

Ever asked yourself how to detect and extract social groups from texts with computational social science? @haukelicht.bsky.social and me have a solution for you out at @bjpols.bsky.social. You can also find the pre-trained models on huggingface!

Since the start of von der Leyen's second mandate, EU sustainable finance norms face intense dismantling pressures. My new @JEPP article shows this started years ago when the fossil fuel industry “woke up” to the EU Taxonomy. 🧵 #EUTaxonomy #SustainableFinance👇 1/10

Migrating birds, selective blindness, strategic skepticism, weaponized uncertainty – this paper has it all. Do give it a read, it's excellent work.

But there is a silver lining: the fact that the ECB Governing Council houses both groups may counterbalance these individual biases and avoid herd behavior...

... At least as long as the balance of power between the two groups remains 🕊️⚖️🦅

This also explains why technocratic institutions' reputation management strategies appear less coherent than anticipated.
Individual central bankers aren't just cultivating their institution's legitimacy, but also trying to make their own monetary policy preferences prevail.

This questions the "depoliticization" and "scientization" of central banks:
When central bankers selectively respond to data based on whether it supports their preferences, and mobilize theories strategically rather than consistently, they function more as skilled advocates than neutral technocrats.

In sum, central bankers from both camps displayed:
📍 Selective blindness (cherry-picking data)
📍 Strategic skepticism (questioning theories when they become inconvenient)
📍 Weaponized uncertainty (using uncertainty to justify preferred action/inaction)

When inflation came back (2021-2023), attitudes reversed. The doves adopted the data, theories, and principles they had rejected in previous years when they were used by the hawks... And the hawks did the same, from inflation data to monetary policy principles.

See e.g. on inflation expectations

By contrast, hawks highlighted in their speeches the supply-side drivers of inflation, questioned the very relevance of inflation expectations, warned of the many and dangerous side effects of quantitative easing, and argued that uncertainty called for humility and patience.

In deflation times (2014-2017), doves wanted to push for bold accommodative action. They highlighted the demand-side drivers of deflation, warned of de-anchoring inflation expectations, insisted on "price stability first", and called for bold action to counter uncertainty.

While having opposed preferences, both camps display similar rhetorical strategies: depending on the "inflation season", they mobilize the data, theories and policy principles that help them make their preferences prevail...

... Even when it means being time-inconsistent!

In this paper, we study speeches from the 5 main Eurosystem central banks (2014-2023) and document the rhetorical strategies of two camps:

🕊️ Doves (that favor accommodative monetary policy), from 🇪🇸and 🇮🇹
🦅 Hawks (that champion higher interest rates), from 🇩🇪and 🇳🇱

Central Bankers as Migrating Birds: How Inflation Shapes the Rhetorical Strategies of Doves and Hawks The Eurosystem is built on a compelling promise: shielded from national politics, ECB Governing Council members would be better positioned to deploy their science-based expertise. Far from embodying ...

🚨 New paper accepted in @JCMS_journal! 🚨

"Central bankers as migrating birds: How inflation shapes the rhetorical strategies of doves and hawks"
With Bart Stellinga and Matthias Thiemann

Paper: doi.org/10.1111/jcms...
Blog: lnkd.in/eNAm9NzA

💥 Are gas and nuclear sustainable? The EU says yes, but that’s contested.

Clément Fontan unpacks how lobbying shaped the EU Taxonomy and how the Commission managed its own expert group in the process 👇

🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....