Zeb Pischnotte

Zero undecided on Trump… but 27% undecided on the generic ballot? That’s a little odd.

At this point, they’re just trying to stanch the bleeding in the HoD.

Love your work, but Elon Musk boosts white supremacist content on X, and I won’t support that.

Wouldn’t be the first time. Polling showed a close race in VA in 2017, and then Northam won by 9.

Florida has entered the chat…

And with 34% in, it’s… almost identical to Trump’s margin.

The fivethirtyeight team in particular has me questioning my memory. Those guys did actually use to give informed, unbiased commentary on data and demographics, right?

It would certainly be indicative of our priorities.

Before people start dooming, remember that this is not the only recent generic ballot poll out there. Morning consult found D+3; Economist found D+5; Quinnipiac found D+9. This one is definitely on the lower end for Dems.

In Crucial 2026 Senate Battleground, Mills Holds the Edge, New SoCal Strategies Poll Finds The incumbent governor leads Graham Platner by 5 points in the Democratic Senate Primary

That sure didn’t take long. Her lead over Platner is 5 points, but “[w]hen voters are informed of the scandal, Mills’ lead balloons to 30 percentage points.”
substack.com/inbox/post/1...

While the quote itself may be untrue, Pope Leo has said things that echo this sentiment. He made it clear that the label “pro-life” cannot be applied to those who support the death penalty or U.S. immigration policies.

Does “unknown” include independent and unaffiliated? Their numbers seem a bit low, at first glance.

🥳

Are Duggan’s positions closer to D than R? I wonder if there’s a chance Dems would drop out and endorse him, especially if any polls come out showing him leading the pack. This looks like a three-way statistical tie to me right now.

Call me suspicious (or observant), but I can’t help notice that this sudden Sherrill bump corresponds with Trump building his Palace of Versailles in the middle of the shutdown.

Yah we’ll see how long this holds with the whole ☠️ thing (and that’s only one of the issues that’s come out).

Right? Among other norms Trump has busted, having a negative IQ is certainly one of them.

In 2017, the VA polling average showed a 3-point race. One poll, Quinnipiac, showed Northam winning by 9, and that ended up being the final margin.
That’s why you publish outliers (and this is less of an outlier than that was).

Officer Eddie: *pulls out pistol* “This is your last warning about that!”

With the YR “I love Hitler” messages, Paul Ingrassia’s “Nazi streak,” and this, that’s way more Nazi stuff than we should be seeing in one week.

“It’s 2025, and Dems are running against the guy implementing Project 2025.” 🤡

Don’t you guys threaten to do stuff to Walmarts or something?

Alaskans are more libertarian than they are conservative, and it’s a good bet that the outright authoritarianism doesn’t play well.

I remember the dooming around all those polls in 2022 when the Wassermans and Rakiches all wrote, “The Democrats’ Red October is here“ 😝

I think, if anything, it was good to show the hollowness of Trump’s accusations that the protests were organized by “violent leftists.” Largest mass demonstrations in history, organized by opposition to his agenda, no violence except from right-wing counter protesters.

Oof, and right after the news that the Vaad was going to endorse Ciattarelli…

“Protesting against the system protects the system” is certainly a take.

Can’t help but notice them doing their best to distort the narrative putting a dude with a Mexico 🇲🇽 shirt front and center.

Anyone saying VA will be close is baiting. Harris won the state by 6. The national environment is bluer than it was then. Sears is not the campaigner Youngkin was. I can’t see any ingredients present to produce a surprise.

Ah, my mistake. But yeah: sounds like total ratfuckery.