Geoffrey Skelley

New TX map has 8 safe D seats. The other five Dem seats all become red-leaning:
-Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas
-Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33
-Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18

Episode 22: Geoff Skelley Interview on 2025 and the Midterms Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 07/26/2025 · 31m

New Federal Fallout pod this morning featuring @geoffreyskelley.com

Geoff previously was with Crystal Ball and 538

He goes over Virginia and New Jersey this year

And looks ahead to redistricting and its potential impact on midterms

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Very excited to see which current “no” vote among Senate Rs flips to ensure passage of the BBB on Monday. Highly skeptical we’re gonna see another failure like the Obamacare skinny repeal in 2017.

On This Election Day: June 24 June 24, 2014: Republican Sen. Thad Cochran barely survives a Tea Party challenge from the right to win renomination in a primary runoff

This piece from @geoffreyskelley.com recounting Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran's come from behind GOP primary runoff victory 11 years ago today sure brings back memories. Cochran appealed to the state's large and heavily Democratic Black electorate to vote in a Republican contest, and it worked.

Using AP estimates on what's outstanding, there might be ~20k votes left in Richmond City, more than any other locality. Just how much better — or not — Stoney does among the outstanding votes in the city he leads could prove decisive in the LG primary result. #VAprimary

Could Virginia see one party sweep all three state offices this November? Virginia's primary is happening on Tuesday. The same party has won the general election for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general in four straight elections. It could happen again.

Virginia’s primary is on Tuesday. Looking ahead to November, 2025 could mark the 5th straight state election in which the same party swept all three statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor & attorney general. open.substack.com/pub/national...

Former Rep. Joe Walsh is considering a bid against GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham The former Tea Party congressman has become a registered Democrat.

The casual irrational confidence that you could move to South Carolina in 2025 and mount a strong challenge against Lindsey Graham in the 2026 #SCSen race. Laughable. www.politico.com/news/2025/06...

New Jersey Democrats have an unusually crowded primary for governor Six candidates might win at least 10% in the Democratic primary — which would be a first in the Garden State's history

Waiting on #NJGov results and looking for something to read? Check out my look at how the Dem primary ended up so crowded and what that might say about the changing politics of the Garden State. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

Today is primary election day in New Jersey! @geoffreyskelley.com has a good preview: nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

New Jersey Democrats have an unusually crowded primary for governor Six candidates might win at least 10% in the Democratic primary — which would be a first in the Garden State's history

Something to watch in New Jersey's primary: 6 Dems might win 10%+ in the gov primary, which would be a 1st in state history. Such a crowded race may result from weakened local party influence & abolishment of the “county line” on election ballots. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

Been playing with my kid, anyone got a tick-tock with the exact order of X/TruthSocial posts/public statements and reactions by Musk and Trump?

This is reasonable. And I thought it for many years. But Jennifer Allen's work on vaccine misinformation changed my mind. Headlines often misinform people because 1) most people don't click through and read stories, 2) misleading headlines don't get misinformation flags from social media companies.

Dems finally get a Cedric Richmond heir

If JD Scholten beats the odds and #IAsen Joni Ernst, it’ll be a windfall for Democrats in the Congressional Baseball Game. He’s spent the last two years pitching in Dutch professional baseball and for the indy team the Sioux City Explorers.

Her backpedaling after initially opposing Hegseth was to avoid provoking a primary challenge from her right.

It’s also telling from an incumbent who has never had to run in a bad environment for her party (first elected in red wave 2014 midterm then reelected in more neutral 2020 pres cycle).

#IASen is definitely a stretch for Dems in 2026, but Ernst just decided to pour gasoline on the fire she started with her bungled statement at a townhall. That’s a decision that suggests she and/or her staff believe she’s safer than she really is.

The three Dem vacancies made it very slightly easier for the GOP, but the 3 Republican present/ abstentions would have likely gotten the GOP over the line even if Connolly, Grijalva and Turner were all still alive and there. This is too important for Trump.

Europa League champs! I will absolutely take it, no matter how ugly it was. #COYS

Most Congressional Republicans have pledged not to raise taxes, but some are considering a tax hike for their own budget deal. 85% have signed Americans for Tax Reform's no-tax pledge, down from 95% after the 2010 Tea Party election.
nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/in-a-world...

My mother grew up in Waynesboro, she’s here visiting her new grandchild and tells me that it was a Holiday Inn that, amazingly, had a little skating rink outside.

Afton?

Awesome!

Hi all! Monday I will start my new job as Class Politics Reporter @thenewrepublic.bsky.social. I could not be more excited. I was honored to spend the last 3 years at 538. In March, ABC shuttered the publication. Over more than a decade, the site set a new standard for political journalism.

"In January 2023, just two months after OpenAI launched ChatGPT, a survey of 1,000 college students found that nearly 90 percent of them had used the chatbot to help with homework assignments. "

While everyone gets mad about college students using AI...I am extremely curious about this very vague survey cite in the NY Mag story

On This Election Day: May 6 May 6, 1972: Galifianakis forces North Carolina incumbent senator into a primary runoff. No, not that Galifianakis.

nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/on-this-el...

🎵thermostatic public opinion🎵

Can we not say that Trump “ruled out” a 2028 presidential run? It wasn’t an option. Not a constitutional one, anyway.

Beware of those ridings that say "206/207 polls reporting" or whatever. Advance and special (i.e., early and absentee) ballots count as a "poll," so those final drops could be game-changers.

How Trump's push for Canadian statehood would hurt the GOP President Donald Trump's assertion that Canada should become the 51st state would likely lead to major Democratic electoral gains.

Trump hasn’t abandoned his “Canada = 51st state” rhetoric. In February, I explored why Canadian statehood would be exceedingly weird historically because Canada would CLEARLY vote against the party pushing for statehood (Trump as head of the GOP). abcnews.go.com/538/trumps-p...