Laurie Macfarlane

NEW: Reaching net-zero will be much cheaper than previously thought, and the cost of climate breakdown far more severe, according to the OBR.

The amount of investment needed to reach net zero will be just over half as much as previously thought: obr.uk/frs/fiscal-r...

What does Trump's tariff war mean for Scotland? Tariffs are just one part of Trump's plan to reshape the global economic order in his own image

As Trump visits Scotland, tariffs have been high on the agenda.

The US is Scotland’s second-largest trading partner. What does Trump’s tariff war mean for Scotland’s economy? 🧵

Missing the bus: Alexander Dennis and Scotland’s industrial decline How public money helped to erode Scotland’s industrial base and offshore jobs abroad

The loss of 400 jobs at Alexander Dennis wasn’t inevitable

It’s what happens when public money is used to back overseas rivals over Scottish industry

Read our new blog by @lmacfarlane.bsky.social:

While other countries implement bold industrial strategies, Scotland is using taxpayer subsidies to erode our industrial base and offshore jobs abroad

My analysis on the loss of 400 jobs at Alexander Dennis 👇

NEW: Alexander Dennis’s decision to halt Scottish manufacturing isn’t just a casualty of market forces

It’s a story of how public money has helped to erode Scotland’s industrial base and offshore jobs abroad

New analysis by @lmacfarlane.bsky.social www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/260-mi...

NEW: Green jobs in Scotland increased by 7,500 over the past year, rising to a record high of 33,500

We welcome strong progress in areas like energy efficiency and low carbon vehicles, but some areas of concern remain 🧵

The truth about North Sea jobs and why workers need a plan - Blogpost from Uplift (News) Varying predictions of oil and gas production create wildly different, and potentially misleading, predictions of oil and gas job losses. But there is widespread agreement: jobs are in decline regardl...

And before anyone says: new licenses won’t address this

Jobs have been in steep decline for years, and new licences will have a tiny impact on future jobs:

RGU report issues UK offshore energy industry jobs warning | June 2025 | News | RGU A major new report from Robert Gordon University has warned that the UK risks losing tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs by 2030 unless urgent and coordinated action is taken immediately.

New research from Robert Gordon Uni finds that without action, 58,000 oil and gas jobs could be lost by the early 2030s — equivalent of the closure of Grangemouth every two weeks 🤯

Nigel Farage branded 'clown' as he suggests scrapping Barnett formula NIGEL Farage has been branded a “dangerous clown” after hinting he would scrap the Scottish Parliament’s funding mechanism if he won power in…

What Farage is saying here is “Scotland needs more austerity”

He knows that would be a catastrophically unpopular message, so he’s dancing round it. But that’s what he’s saying

This is true, but we also need to recognise that some industries are strategically more critical than others for a whole host of reasons

Contribution to GDP tells you very little about this

Rachel Reeves should refine fiscal rules to avoid emergency spending cuts, IMF says The organisation, which has been assessing the UK economy, upgrades its growth forecast this year to 1.2%

When even the IMF says your fiscal rules are too strict, you know they’re really bad…

Among his other interesting comments today, President Trump has alleged that there's a century worth of oil & gas drilling left in the North Sea that the UK should incentivise in order to get energy costs down.
Let's take a closer look at the veracity of that idea, shall we?
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Attempting to drill baby drill our way out of an aging basin with a decreasing rate of production and enormous job losses over the past decade - despite huge government support - is doomed to fail.

Our response to Donald Trump’s illogical intervention today:

How flatlining wages made Scots £15,000 poorer The culprit is not immigration, but a broken economic model

Real earnings in Scotland have flatlined since 2008. How much has this cost Scots in their pay packet? The answer: £15,000

Read more in our new blog by @lmacfarlane.bsky.social:

If earnings in Scotland grew as normal since 2008 rather than flatlined, the average worker would be £15,000 better off

This is the price of sustained economic failure

Scots workers suffer £15k wage drop due to flatlining and inflation Real average weekly earnings in 2024 were just £8 higher than they were in 2008.

“Rather than scapegoating migrants for the country’s economic failures, the debate must focus on the real culprit: a broken economic model.”

My comment in the Daily Record on Scotland’s earnings squeeze:

Commenting on the analysis, our co-director @lmacfarlane.bsky.social said:

NEW: Average earnings in Scotland are £15,000 lower than they would have been if wages hadn’t flatlined since the 2008 financial crisis

If real earnings had instead grown in line with pre-crisis trends, today the average full-time worker would be earning £53,923

How can Scotland deliver a just transition in the labour market? Join our webinar! Speakers include:

📣 Tom Arthur, Minister for Employment and Investment

📣 Satwat Rehman, Just Transition Commission Co-Chair

📣 Dave Moxham, STUC Deputy General Secretary

👉 www.eventbrite.com/e/how-can-sc...

Building or Extracting Community Wealth? Shetland as a Test for a Just Energy Transition This briefing is adapted from the ‘Shetland, community benefit and energy transition’ report

Shetland built significant community wealth from oil. Given this precedent, should the isles accept business-as-usual approaches for renewables?

This briefing dives into the ownership of renewables in Shetland, drawing on lessons from the isles as an early test case example for a just transition.

Building or Extracting Community Wealth? Shetland as a Test for a Just Energy Transition This briefing is adapted from the ‘Shetland, community benefit and energy transition’ report

Shetland secured community wealth from oil, and now the isles face rapid renewables growth.

Our briefing examines how Shetland presents an early test case example for a just energy transition, providing insights for other communities:

Watch: How can Scotland maximise the benefits of offshore wind? Watch our latest webinar exploring how to maximise the benefits of offshore wind for Scotland

In case you missed it, our latest webinar explores how to maximise the benefits of Scotland’s offshore wind.

We were joined by a panel of expert speakers: Emma Harrick, Ewan Gibbs and Kateryna McKinnon. You can watch it in full here:

Join Future Economy Scotland’s webinar today at 6pm exploring how to maximise the benefits of offshore wind. Featuring:

⚡️Ewan Gibbs, Glasgow university
⚡️Emma Harrick, Scottish Renewables
⚡️Kateryna McKinnon, Crown Estate Scotland

Sign up below👇

Tonight!⚡️How can Scotland maximise the benefits of offshore wind? Join us at 18:00 for a webinar where expert speakers will explore how offshore wind projects can maximise benefits for supply chains, workers, taxpayers and communities.

Sign up here! www.eventbrite.com/e/how-can-sc...

How can Scotland maximise the benefits of offshore wind? Join us at 18:00 on Tuesday for a webinar where a panel of expert speakers will explore how offshore wind projects can maximise benefits for supply chains, workers, taxpayers, and communities.

Sign up here! www.eventbrite.com/e/how-can-sc...

On Tuesday @futureeconscot.bsky.social will be hosting a webinar focusing on how to maximise the economic benefits of offshore wind

Sign up here 👇

“Without a far more proactive approach to industrial policy, a just transition will remain a distant pipe dream.”

@futureeconscot.bsky.social’s response to Grangemouth’s closure 👇

The closure of Grangemouth refinery is a devastating blow for Scotland that must act as an urgent wake up call.

Read our full response: www.futureeconomy.scot/press/117-re...

This should be a major wake up call for the Scottish and UK Governments, who buried their heads in the sand for too long

Without far more proactive industrial planning and interventions, a just transition will remain a distant pipe dream

All oil refining in Scotland ends as Grangemouth operations cease Petroineos, which runs the refinery, notified staff by email that all oil refining work had ended.

This is what happens when you leave decarbonisation to market forces and distant shareholders. Jobs will be lost, and communities will be devastated

Grangemouth was a litmus test for delivering a just transition — and we failed catastrophically