Armin Schaefer

Money Doesn't Buy Elections. It Does Something Worse. Campaign ads barely move the needle. The real influence is hiding in plain sight.

Study after study shows campaign ads barely move the needle. So where does money’s real power come from? I ranked the five ways money corrupts politics—from least to most corrosive. What I’ve learned from 15 years of tracking political money:

1/ Does growing up poor always lead to political apathy?

Very happy to share my first paper published (open access) in @electoralstudies.bsky.social, where I show that parents' influence mitigates the poverty gap in participation, while economic mobility does not.

🔗 shorturl.at/p5Bac

"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou WORKING PAPER 34524 DOI 10.3386/w34524 ISSUE DATE November 2025 Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms.

令 1 1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 Year Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.

After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts

www.nber.org/papers/w34524

via @florianederer.bsky.social

Join us! Die Abteilung für Innenpolitik & Politische Soziologie sucht zum 01.04. eine*n neue*n Kollegin*en. Wir bieten: volle Promotionsstelle (EG13) für drei Jahre (Verlängerung um 3 Jahre möglich), flexible Arbeitszeitregelungen, kollegiales & forschungsstarkes Team. Mehr Informationen hier👇

Am Mittwoch, 3. Dezember (16 Uhr, P5), freuen wir uns auf den Besuch von Jale Tosun (Universität Heidelberg) in unserer #Forschungswerkstatt. Sie spricht zum Thema "Die Wirksamkeit nationaler Klimapolitiken: Evidenz aus 43 OECD- und Schwellenländern".
Alle sind herzlich willkommen.

Heute begrüßen wir Markus Patberg (Universität Hamburg) in der #Forschungswerkstatt (16 Uhr in P5, Philo). Wir freuen uns auf einen spannenden Vortrag zum Thema: „Oligarchische Vereinnahmung: Soziale Medien und politische Öffentlichkeit"

Alle sind herzlich willkommen!

Members of the IPP gathered for the 11th consecutive retreat in Bodenheim close to Mainz on 13th and 14th November. The main purpose of the retreat was once again to foster the exchange of research ideas and collaboration and talk about the future of the IPP.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has doubled its vote share in the February 23 elections, marking what Professor Kai Arzheimer calls “a turning point in post-war German politics.” While expected, this surge solidifies the AfD as Germany’s second-strongest party, normalizing far-right rhetoric in mainstream discourse. Arzheimer highlights how economic anxiety, deindustrialization, and anti-immigration sentiment fuel AfD’s rise. He also warns that mainstream parties risk losing credibility by mimicking far-right policies rather than offering bold alternatives. Despite its growing influence, AfD’s radicalization presents both an opportunity and a challenge for German democracy. As political fragmentation deepens, the response of centrist parties will determine whether this shift is temporary—or part of a long-term realignment. Interview by Selcuk Gultasli The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has cemented itself as a formidable force in German politics, nearly doubling its vote share in the February 23 elections compared to 2021. According to Professor Kai Arzheimer, a... Professor Kai Arzheimer: AfD’s Surge is a Game-Changer in Post-War German Politics

There are very good reasons 𝘯𝘰𝘵 to panic about the #AfD's success in the #btw25 election, but their result is certainly historic. Want to know more? Or just can't go back to sleep? Tune in to my chat with Selcuk Gultasli

🎉 New publication 🎉 Why do #youngpeople vote for the #AfD? This question has kept our research project busy for quite some time, so I'm beyond excited that our first article - co-authored with @timonscheuer.bsky.social - is now out in #GermanPolitics! 🤩 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

We look forward to welcoming @theresmatthiess.bsky.social to the Democracy Seminar today! 👇👇👇 What a treat!

Vorgezogene Bundestagswahlen sind außergewöhnlich - geschenkt. Aber 2025 war für junge Menschen doppelt ärgerlich. Wer im Sommer 2025 18 wurde, hätte im Sep 25 eigentlich wählen dürfen, im Feb 25 aber nicht. Ca. 400.000 junge Menschen, die jetzt (voraussichtlich...) erst 2029 erstmals wählen dürfen.

Studienzeit - Fadenzeit. Erst gilt das angesichts der historischen Bedeutung des heutigen Tages, denn heute vor genau 53 Jahren fand die erste vorgezogene Bundestagswahl EVER statt. Noch dazu waren erstmals auch 18-, 19- u 20-Jährige dabei. Grund genug für eine Jugendwahlstudie zur BTW25.

Interesting! 👇

Greatly looking forward to @breunig.bsky.social speaking in our research seminar @powimz.bsky.social on Wednesday!

Bartels did a study 20+ years ago looking at how much a member of Congress' record coincided with their constituents' views, broken down by income. MCs are a lot more responsive to their wealthier constituents. Think about whom SNAP and flight delays affect. www.russellsage.org/sites/defaul...

Politologe Arzheimer - Viele Menschen stehen fest auf dem Boden der Demokratie AfD, Pegida, Neonazis - die Mitte-Studie macht den Machern Sorgen. Politiologe Arzheimer warnt, Einstellunge mit Politik gleichzusetzen.

Rechtsextreme, demokratiegefährdende Einstellungen, was ist wichtig, im Hinterkopf zu haben, wenn es um Ergebnisse wie die der Mitte-Studie geht? Einordnungen mit Politikwissenschaftler & Rechtsextremismusforscher @kai-arzheimer.com - 30min Vertiefung 🎧 www.deutschlandfunk.de/mitte-studie... 2/2

Crazy support numbers for Zohran Mamdani among young women: 84% (!) of women aged 18-29 voted for Mamdani in the NYC Mayoral Election.

But also important: young men voted MUCH MORE STRONGLY (67%) for Mamdani than old men (37%).

Better get your paper submissions in for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference in June 2026, as the deadline is 7 November, and we have no intention of extended that (given the submission numbers)!
epssnet.org/belfast-2026...

🚨New paper out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1080/1350...

@manuelwagner.bsky.social & I re-conceptualize class representation to take into account social mobility between classes and variation in how individuals enter politics.

Diesen Mittwoch in der Forschungswerkstatt Politikwissenschaft @powimz.bsky.social : Nathasha Wunsch stellt ihr neues Buch vor! 16 Uhr in P5 - wir freuen uns schon 🎉

Kickoff done! “Marburger Stadtgespräch” & Future of Democracy (Mon, 20 Oct). @leaelsaesser.bsky.social on working-class political careers, the role of trade unions, and contrasts with uni graduates. Thanks also to our engaged audience for a great discussion! More: tinyurl.com/e3pyhstd

How can we compare the size and structuring power of different cleavages over time? Check out @jacobgunderson.bsky.social 's great paper and dataset for scholars working on cleavages at the party system level!

The latest from @dpzollinger.bsky.social and I's Special Issue in @wepsocial.bsky.social.

Happy to serve as the editor-in-chief of the Politische Vierteljahresschrift/German Political Science Quarterly (PVS/GPSQ) link.springer.com/journal/11615 @dvpw.bsky.social from January 2026 onwards. Thanks to Eric Linhart for his great work in the last six years! 1/3

Excellent, Marc!

💫💫💫 Great News: We are over the moon that our paper "Election Pledges in Multiparty Governments: When do Voters Accept Non-Fulfillment?" is now published in BJPS @bjpols.bsky.social 🍾 🤗

👉🏻 doi.org/10.1017/S000...

w/ Juha Ylisalo, Katrin Praprotnik & @laurenzennser.bsky.social

🧵1/5

Kommt alle zum Projekttag!

Im Rahmen des Projekttages stellen Studierende im Master ‚Empirische
Demokratieforschung’ ihre eigenen, im Rahmen eines Projektmoduls erarbeiteten Forschungsprojekte vor

Eingeladen sind alle Studierenden und Mitglieder des Instituts.

@ckreudersonnen.bsky.social and I are happy to announce two open research positions in our joint DFG-funded project VARICRIS (👉 bit.ly/varicris).
We are recruiting a #PostDoc and a #PhD candidate 🧵:

#PoliSky #PoliSkyJobs #polsci 🌐

I am teaching an introduction to Bayesian statistics this term and have adapted some of his examples. Generally, I use political science data and examples throughout the course.

Cool, freue ich drauf!

New-ish research by @nilssteiner.bsky.social & @arminschaefer.bsky.social, made @powimz.bsky.social