x.com/chrisschmitz

Die Klarheit ist doch da, es wird nur nicht öffentlich kommuniziert, weil kein notariell beglaubigtes Bapperl an den Drohnen hängt.

Hello IvanATC, this is JAKE37 operating under IDGAF, sorry, due regard.

Confirmed

It could well be that we have another run of a UK RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint (Airseeker) into the Black Sea.

Since the incident of a Russian Fighter almost shooting one down, these missions will usually feature a fighter cover by a NATO state.
RRR7207/ZZ664/43C38C

Also ist der ADFC auch nur Kommunisten-Klüngel!

Die Annahme ist, dass es teuer ist, ist ggf falsch.
Wenn die zu 30% der Gestehungskosten arbeiten, und das in zig Projekten so machen, rentiert es sich, wenn einzelne Projekte zurück gezahlt werden müssen.

Turkish Air Force E-7 Wedgetail on approach to ETNG after a mission defending NATO from Russia over the baltics.

v1 of the Command "Radar Detection Grid."

From bottom to top:
F-22, J-20B, SU-57, S-70, Orlan UAV, Drone, Shahed-129, GJ-11, J-35A, F-35A and...

Can you guess the Top Row?

Radar Platforms used: E-7, E-3 and A-50U. cc @dimitrisd.bsky.social

This is unprecedented activity, especially for a Friday afternoon.
We have four confirmed aerial refueling areas across the North Sea, Northern Germany, Poland, Baltic Ocean and Baltics.

There is significant presence of Anti Submarine and ISR units, multiple CAP likely active.

Sneak preview of Emissions and Radar Resolution testing of E-7 Wedgetail vs E-3 RISP AWACS.

Targets include commercial drones, Orlan, Shahed, GJ-11, J-35, Su-57 and will be expanded later.

Ukrainian AN-72 Coaler directly flying into polish Airspace.
Notice that he ways flying at FL200 in Ukraine. This means that Russia has no way to touch it there.
Possibly from the Ivano-Frankivsk area.

VERY unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=508072

USAF Europe Base Spangdahlem is currently having an Italian 767 Tanker and a Priority coded C5M on approach.

Both are rather unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=33fe77,...

- All citizens in Europe should prepare to be able to supply themselves with medicine, water, food for 2 weeks as shelter in place.
- Get a radio, medicines and water supplies.

- Russia and associated assets (Iran, Gaza-Paliban, Houthi, Agents in Europe) will likely increase activities inside europe, possibly including terrorist attacks and attacks on critical infrastructure.

- A military occupation of Transdjnestr after Sunday seems very likely, possibly by Ukrainian Forces called in by Moldovan Government, who lack own military abilities.
- Russia will likely respond with their information warfare assets framing this as escalation by "NATO/UKRAINE/EU".

- An outbreak of "paramilitary" hostilities on Sunday or Monday is very likely.
- Hybrid war activities are likely going to continue at least until Sunday.
- Depending on the Sunday night situation, we may see an even further increase of RU hybrid war against EU if the coup fails, or is beaten back

Summary of Hypothesis on this week, it can be VERY escalatory, let me explain:

Current events are NOT going to slow down until Sunday.
Sunday is the election of Moldova, one that Russia heavily tried to influence with intelligence operations.

Thread:

YouTube video by OSINT-cschmitz "Foxhound Inbound", a military grade simulation of 3x Russian MIG-31 into Estonia Sep. 19th, 2025.

"Foxhound Inbound", a military grade simulation of the incursions of 3x Russian MIG-31 into Estonian Airspace on September 19th, 2025.

We also analyze IF they could have been shot down, given the "robust" Doctrine in place now.

youtu.be/pdwjtz_fAA8

E-3A Sentry NATO001 and USAF KC-135 61-0290 on their way to protecting the NATO Skies.

Typhoon Hungry.
Need Food, Flankers please.

The catch of the day.
Two 4-letter RCH C-17 seperated by about a minute descending to Ramstein.

Attention Spotters/OSINT:

The German Army will conduct very low level helicopter operations in the area marked red between the 8th and 10th of July, down to 3m AGL.
The German Air Force will conduct Eurofighter/Tornado operations in the area marked purple during the same times, down to 150m AGL.

Quite the interesting combination of Patterns.
I am sure that NL Spotters are having a field day.

Mapping #FORTE10 currently active over Eastern Med:

The Radar Line of Sight against a 1000ft AGL target (i.e. Drone) is seen on the "blue overlay" screen.

The Radar Line of Sight against a 10ft AGL target (i.e. something on the ground) is seen on the "pink overlay" screen.

C Schmitz on X: "With that out of the way, the US could move in along the purple corridor with B-2s covered by F-22 and F-35 and electronic warfare, engage the FEP and get out. US CAP would have to ensure nothing gets out of Teheran area (blue). https://t.co/MJKaaAWMy8" / X With that out of the way, the US could move in along the purple corridor with B-2s covered by F-22 and F-35 and electronic warfare, engage the FEP and get out. US CAP would have to ensure nothing gets out of Teheran area (blue). https://t.co/MJKaaAWMy8

5 days ago was just a derivative of the work in, 2023 (then with assumptions that were PRE-Israeli Strikes and disablement of Iranian GBAD) :p

x.com/chrisschmitz...

The overall mission will take close to 30 hours, and span almost 15.000 nautical miles.

What an incredible performance by the crews.

The Mission over Fordow will have likely taken place approximately 15 hours after the take-off.
Take-Off at Whiteman AB is calculated to have occured around 08:10Z on the 21st, landing is calculated to happen around 13:40Z on the 22nd.

Detailed times are visible in the second picture.

Unpacking the detailed timeline of the Fordow Strike using the actual attack time:

We can calculate backwards to establish the timeline from the known strike time, 02:00 AM Local or 23:00Z, and derive a likely timeline.

#iran #fordow #b2 #strike #usaf

Hey, where is my cookie?
#iran #fordow

Tjo, SED halt.