x.com/chrisschmitz

I am well aware of it.

Just not sure your math adds up remotely. Very not sure.

Plenty of fuel? Like 10.000 pounds?
Good enough to avoid low fuel planes going in the dink, not enough for a sortie.

Now, at 0900Z on the 23rd of January, the Carrier Strike Group 3 should approximately be around the displayed position closing in on the Gulf of Oman.

SE Iran is already in Range of Tomahawk (orange) in the Strike Group, air assets would require land based tanker assistance.

Circling back to my simulation of the US Carrier Strike Group towards Iran, it should be past India right now:

YouTube video by chrisschmitz_osint US Carrier Strike Group arrival Near Iran: Realistic Simulation Predicts Saturday Local Time

Here is my hypothesis of the arrival of the CSG3 to Iran, based off its currently known position.

TL;DR: Saturday local time, so Ops probably Sat/Sun night.

We have simulated::

- a speed of 18kt in the Malacca Straights, actual observed speed.
- a cruise of 25kt
- two UNREP at 15kt for 4-6h

Here we go.

DDG-112 is leading the formation, followed by DDG-111, then the Lincoln and DDG-98 is at the end of the line.

Currently moving at approx 18kts into the Singapore Straights.
The Fleet Oiler is behind a dozen nm or so.

Mudhens out of Mildenhall moving towards CENTCOM

globe.adsb.fi?icao=ae04fd,...

YouTube video by OSINT-cschmitz Simulation of timelines for US CSG moving towards Iran for Strikes against the Regime

I have simulated the traveltimes of two US Carrier Strike Groups towards the "Iranian AO".
See the results on this quick "1 take" video.

TL;DR earliest expected arrival January 20th and 22nd, escorts will require UNREP.

Just created this "up to date" Infographic showing the "current state of global affairs".

Berlin has a problem with Eco-Terror:

March 2024: Sabotage against High Voltage lines
September 2025: Sabotage against 100kV line
January 2026: Sabotage against HV cable bridge

Nothing is as shockingly naive, as the "European Commentators and Politicians" who thought that "the international rules" are worth anything without "the enforcer".

USA gave you a warning, CN+RU started the games, time to grow up, Europe.

Sad to see you go. Bluesky is just irrelevant, so that’s a huge loss.

Die Klarheit ist doch da, es wird nur nicht öffentlich kommuniziert, weil kein notariell beglaubigtes Bapperl an den Drohnen hängt.

Hello IvanATC, this is JAKE37 operating under IDGAF, sorry, due regard.

Confirmed

It could well be that we have another run of a UK RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint (Airseeker) into the Black Sea.

Since the incident of a Russian Fighter almost shooting one down, these missions will usually feature a fighter cover by a NATO state.
RRR7207/ZZ664/43C38C

Also ist der ADFC auch nur Kommunisten-Klüngel!

Die Annahme ist, dass es teuer ist, ist ggf falsch.
Wenn die zu 30% der Gestehungskosten arbeiten, und das in zig Projekten so machen, rentiert es sich, wenn einzelne Projekte zurück gezahlt werden müssen.

Turkish Air Force E-7 Wedgetail on approach to ETNG after a mission defending NATO from Russia over the baltics.

v1 of the Command "Radar Detection Grid."

From bottom to top:
F-22, J-20B, SU-57, S-70, Orlan UAV, Drone, Shahed-129, GJ-11, J-35A, F-35A and...

Can you guess the Top Row?

Radar Platforms used: E-7, E-3 and A-50U. cc @dimitrisd.bsky.social

This is unprecedented activity, especially for a Friday afternoon.
We have four confirmed aerial refueling areas across the North Sea, Northern Germany, Poland, Baltic Ocean and Baltics.

There is significant presence of Anti Submarine and ISR units, multiple CAP likely active.

Sneak preview of Emissions and Radar Resolution testing of E-7 Wedgetail vs E-3 RISP AWACS.

Targets include commercial drones, Orlan, Shahed, GJ-11, J-35, Su-57 and will be expanded later.

Ukrainian AN-72 Coaler directly flying into polish Airspace.
Notice that he ways flying at FL200 in Ukraine. This means that Russia has no way to touch it there.
Possibly from the Ivano-Frankivsk area.

VERY unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=508072

USAF Europe Base Spangdahlem is currently having an Italian 767 Tanker and a Priority coded C5M on approach.

Both are rather unusual.
globe.adsb.fi?icao=33fe77,...

- All citizens in Europe should prepare to be able to supply themselves with medicine, water, food for 2 weeks as shelter in place.
- Get a radio, medicines and water supplies.

- Russia and associated assets (Iran, Gaza-Paliban, Houthi, Agents in Europe) will likely increase activities inside europe, possibly including terrorist attacks and attacks on critical infrastructure.

- A military occupation of Transdjnestr after Sunday seems very likely, possibly by Ukrainian Forces called in by Moldovan Government, who lack own military abilities.
- Russia will likely respond with their information warfare assets framing this as escalation by "NATO/UKRAINE/EU".

- An outbreak of "paramilitary" hostilities on Sunday or Monday is very likely.
- Hybrid war activities are likely going to continue at least until Sunday.
- Depending on the Sunday night situation, we may see an even further increase of RU hybrid war against EU if the coup fails, or is beaten back

Summary of Hypothesis on this week, it can be VERY escalatory, let me explain:

Current events are NOT going to slow down until Sunday.
Sunday is the election of Moldova, one that Russia heavily tried to influence with intelligence operations.

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