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Decker Eveleth

@dexeve.bsky.social

PRC and DPRK strategic forces analyst with CNA. BA Reed College, MA Middlebury Institute. NSF GRFP.

7,411 Followers  |  418 Following  |  800 Posts  |  Joined: 22.06.2023  |  1.8785

Latest posts by dexeve.bsky.social on Bluesky

"There's more crust than air"

03.12.2025 23:28 β€” πŸ‘ 183    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1
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I'm sorry, what?

03.12.2025 23:28 β€” πŸ‘ 433    πŸ” 53    πŸ’¬ 112    πŸ“Œ 218

If American companies cannot supply a cheap weapon that consistently works in Ukraine, then the entire idea of mixing high and low capability weapons in the Pacific is dead on arrival. If you can't deal with Russian EW then you definitely aren't going to like Chinese EW.

29.11.2025 14:05 β€” πŸ‘ 130    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2
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When you eject the floppy disk a little too hard

29.11.2025 13:46 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I understand not everyone is going to love where the Navy is headed for design wise, but this wishcasting about building more ships and magically solving industry base problems is not a real course of action, its fantasy planning.

26.11.2025 16:32 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The constellation was doomed to fail because it failed to satisfy everyone. It was not the exquisite platform some people wanted. It was not the cheap fires platform other people wanted. The result is that it had, increasingly, no base of bureaucratic support.

26.11.2025 16:32 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Canceling the constellation class was good and nessessary and will allow the Navy to focus on more achievable capabilities and goals. I understand this is an unpopular opinion, but its also the correct one when taking into account the constraints the Navy is operating under.

26.11.2025 16:31 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Verstappen winning the champ via disqualifications would not be good, but it would be very, very funny.

23.11.2025 16:21 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I love that insane little man

23.11.2025 16:19 β€” πŸ‘ 55    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 0
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Gunter was streaming himself playing modded HOI4 kicking the shit out if the Russians

23.11.2025 16:15 β€” πŸ‘ 102    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

I have never understood the idea that rotating a map of Asia 90Β° will suddenly unlock some revolutionary new perspective. The places are in the same spots. Everything that can be said about Asian security problems can be said with a north up map.

20.11.2025 17:34 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

My dad, who has worn the same pair of tan New Balances for 30 years, arrived to this wedding location wearing *black* New Balances. When questioned, he explained that these were his dress New Balances, for special occasions. Of course.

31.10.2025 15:23 β€” πŸ‘ 53    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1

The president certainly just wants 1 to 1 flight testing, which is not the same thing as nuclear explosions (and flight testing DOES live within the DoW).

30.10.2025 02:18 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

Most of the takes I see on Russia-US nuclear issues over the past 48 hours are well reasoned but may fall victim to overthinking. Putin likes Brevestnik because its his pet project. Trump wants to do 1 to 1 flight testing to match.

30.10.2025 02:17 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

This is with no exaggeration how it feels sometimes to read FOIA documents.

16.10.2025 23:36 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...

16.10.2025 11:28 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.

16.10.2025 13:01 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Can personally attest to the amount of running around the building Sebastian does on a semi-daily basis.

07.10.2025 01:12 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Another related problem is that while GW continues to claim the setting is a satire, none of the current main line writers treat the setting like that, so the main line plot now takes itself way too seriously and has lost all hint of satire or irony.
Case in point: the new Terra books.

06.10.2025 16:42 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

respectfully, you could not be further from the mark πŸ˜‚

06.10.2025 07:12 β€” πŸ‘ 113    πŸ” 11    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

Supreme Leader Eric Adams Delivers Guidence

06.10.2025 12:42 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

May just have to toybox this one.

06.10.2025 12:20 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The new DLC for Rogue Trader looks rad, but the idea of spending another 50 hours playing the Rogue Trader combat system makes me want to blow my brains out

06.10.2025 12:19 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I think we count every new PM France gets as a new republic simply because it would be funny.

06.10.2025 12:19 β€” πŸ‘ 23    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Tom Clancy would have been just an incredible poster. He'd have 500k followers and a name like "TomCatOSINT" or something. He'd have 100 tweet threads on Russian carrier tactics that end with recommendations on the best places in the Barents to place tactical nuclear mines.

03.10.2025 01:22 β€” πŸ‘ 342    πŸ” 41    πŸ’¬ 12    πŸ“Œ 11
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Behind the pageantry are clues about China’s nuclear and strategic ambitions. @dexeve.bsky.social sits down with @nktpnd.bsky.social to discuss.

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

01.10.2025 18:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If I had a nickel for each time my undergraduate institution contributed to getting an entire city filled with DHS/national guard, I'd have two nickels. Which isn't a lot, but its weird it happened twice

27.09.2025 17:02 β€” πŸ‘ 25    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Intentionally giving your child autism is a very high risk high reward scenario. On the one hand, he could grow up to be Richard Nixon. On the other hand, he could grow up to be Richard Nixon

25.09.2025 01:46 β€” πŸ‘ 26    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Pakistan and Missile Defense Defeat Strategies Note: This post was originally published here back in April.

open.substack.com/pub/horsdoeu...
Folks, some thoughts on missile defense defeat strategies in other countries, with Pakistan as an example.

19.09.2025 16:14 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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"Who Won?" Keeping Score After Stand-off Wars How can we tell who won if nothing was actually gained?

I have written some thoughts on why we're suddenly obsessed with counting craters.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.substack.com/p/who-won-ke...

17.09.2025 01:45 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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