Decker Eveleth

The 12 Day War, Part II: Iran’s Missile Force Performance I had thought to write something discussing what we can and cannot evaluate about the technical performance of Iranian missile systems during the 12 Day War, but in the act of writing it, I realize…

horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/07/22/t...
I may have written 12K words on the war, Iran's missile performance, and where we go from here. I hope it is illuminating.

The 12 Day War, Part II: Iran’s Missile Force Performance I had thought to write something discussing what we can and cannot evaluate about the technical performance of Iranian missile systems during the 12 Day War, but in the act of writing it, I realize…

horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/07/22/t...
I may have written 12K words on the war, Iran's missile performance, and where we go from here. I hope it is illuminating.

AOS models look so good recently I'm struggling to resist.

By far my favorite piece of new 40K lore is that while the Emperor and Horus fought their duel aboard the Vengeful Spirit, they also played a psychic game of Yu-Gi-Oh! and Horus cheats by just making up new cards

I have this theory that 4X games have permanently warped a lot of people's opinions on state action-reaction loops and arms racing as their opinions have been shaped by games like HOI where states act on preprogrammed paths

I know where not supposed to take Syril seriously, thats the point, but they keep dressing him up in haircuts and outfits that make him look like Rimmer from Red Dwarf, so whenever he's on the screen I have the urge to shout "GAZPATCHO SOUP!"

A lot of technical assessments of Iran’s nuclear program feel rushed. There’s an overreliance on fuel cycle basics and projections built on major unknowns while overlooking domestic factors eg institutional disruption, procurement challenges, and acute paranoia.

The 12-Day War Digestif, Part 1: Iran’s Incredible Bomb Well. That could have gone worse. This is the first of four blog posts I have planned looking at different aspects of the 12-Day W…

First blog post in a series about the 12-Day War, this first one on Iranian breakout, and why I think people are a little too eager to assume the worst on Iranian breakout speed: horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/06/27/t...

BABIES IN A THUNDERCLOUD may be my new favorite

For everyone being supremely confident that we can definitely detect and strike any future clandestine enrichment hall, let me remind you that North Korea built an entire enrichment cascade at Yongbyon and the IC completely missed it.

This is not just because of Iran's likely reaction, but also because of Sinwar's folly. Sinwar accomplished nothing but convincing Israel that Iran could not be deterred, and military solutions were the only option.

The job is not done yet. There are still options on the table for Iran despite their weak position. What HAS been accomplished is that the course has been steered on a path that likely excludes ever having a diplomatic solution to this problem.

My personal opinion is that something between B and C is most likely but given that these are unprecedented times, we won't know.

C) Iran decides nuclear program is more trouble than its worth and scraps the idea, but still refuses inspections
D) Iran slowly comes into full compliance with NPT and IAEA in exchange for economic relief

Boiling it down, we have a couple possibilities:
A) Iran completely withdraws from NPT, rushes to bomb
B) Iran kicks out IAEA but stays in NPT, covertly works on weapons program

So does Iran rush to a few weapons or bide their time and try to rush when they can build 30 or 50? I suspect that is the discussion the IRGC is currently having internally.

But one big problem for Iran is the classic question of how much is enough. Given Israel's proven ballistic missile defense capabilities, how many weapons do you need to deter Israel? I think the number is maybe greater than 10 to be sure.

This obviously creates the problem that as the years go by, our picture of what the Iranian nuclear program looks like will become less clear. Much of what we know is due to Iran telling the IAEA. Now Iran seems likely to kick the IAEA out entirely.

Iran could try to rush to a bomb, but I'm skeptical they will due to how deep Israeli intelligence has obviously penetrated. Instead, I think they'll attempt to end the current conflict, but refuse any demand for inspection.

There is also the question of where all the other machinery Iran has for its nuclear program has gone. A reminder that this was the reason the IAEA declared Iran non-compliant! Iran wouldn't show the IAEA machines the IAEA knew they had.

There is also the question of where all the other machinery Iran has for its nuclear program has gone. A reminder that this was the reason the IAEA declared Iran non-compliant! Iran wouldn't show the IAEA machines the IAEA knew they had.

Iran probably has some stored centrifuges (I think Israel may have hit at least one of the places they store them but I'm not sure) that can be reinstalled somewhere and produce enough 90% uranium for a couple bombs - more if they have some time.

Despite declawing much of Iran's capabilities, we have still not solved the nuclear problem. There is 400-500kg of 60% enriched uranium out there somewhere that Iran could still make some bombs with and some number of centrifuges.

Iran can rebuild these capabilities with difficulty over the next 5 years. They have the organizations to put their missile programs back on track. Israel can try to blow these up every once and awhile but that will only make the Iranians go further underground.

Instead Iran's air, air defense, and IRGC missile forces were effectively dismantled in 48 hours. Much of the IRGC missile force survived these initial attacks, but were put in a position where they could not effectively use the majority of their force.

First - the Israeli attack, and the US support, will go on the books as one of the most successful air campaigns in history. Most analysts were expecting to see a much more capable Iranian response to Israel's initial attacks, something we have not really seen.

Wrote this thread on X before the ceasefire. Not much has changed, so here we go:

At the Godspeed You! Black Emperor concert and the clientele is precisely what you would expect: anarcho-communists and people who play Warhammer: 40,000

Okay I will take the L on this one - I genuinely did not think it would work out that we would declare victory and go home, but I also didn't think we would be apparently ambivalent to 400 kg of loose 60% enriched uranium.

Everyone is now an expert in earth penetrating weapon debris patterns. We don't know, please shut up