Cole Curtiss-Fuentes - The #OscarsModel

it’s the perfect time to assess the state of the awards race with critics groups rolling in, Golden Globes, and CCA noms

we review the trends we are seeing so far, and assess early data in the Oscars Model with @curtissonfilm.bsky.social

listen👇🏼👇🏼

therollingtape.com/the-awards-tap…

This was such a blast! Thank you @dannyjarabek.bsky.social & @therollingtape.bsky.social for having me on the podcast for the first time!

We had a great conversation- a perfect dissection of the Oscars race across the board (with plenty of insight from the #OscarsModel). Give it a listen!

*FULLY UPDATED* #OscarsModel following results from LAFCA, HCA, and Golden Globe nominations- there's LOTS to catch up on!

As every Monday, we also have fully updated graphs over time, showing you how the races have been changing. Check it out!

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Big next 26 hours!

We’ve got LAFCA announcing throughout the day, The Astra awards tonight, and Golden Globe nominations announced tomorrow morning- all going into the #OscarsModel. Considering that, I’m going to wait to update the Model until tomorrow morning! See you then 👀

We are SO proud to present our

🏆*LIVE 2025 Oscar Nominations Model!*🏆

In our second year of the #OscarsModel, we have you covered this season for all the math leading up to Oscar Nominations. Updated as data comes in, bookmark, share, visit often!🧡

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tomorrow 👀

I feel like a lot of folks here could benefit from thinking the way our #OscarsModel does about precursors:

In a season there are x total number of "points on the board," and any given precursor is worth more/less than others. It's a race that only goes up; not appearing/winning ≠ doom

new niche @letterboxd.social list dropped, lmk if i missed any

Huge batch of data as the #OscarsModel prepares for its LIVE launch this week- many of these winners today find themselves atop the odds in their categories thanks to it!

NYFCC is always a fun day, with very worthy and interesting winners. A truly great slate!

yep, I’ve got it in MUAHS for now!

Adam Klay has you covered via Twitter! The Rider is the only one to not receive any Oscar nominations following a Best Feature win at Gothams.

Best Screenplay:

8/10 of the total winners have been nominated at the Oscars, 4 of them won an Oscar in the respective category. (8/9 years; both 2020 winners weren’t nominated at Oscars.)

An adapted script has won here only twice- both times it was nominated at Oscars (1 won).

Non-gendered performing categories began in 2021. Since,

1/4 Lead winners have been Oscar nominated. 2 eventual Oscar winners were nominated here but did not win.

2/3 Supporting winners have been Oscar nominated, both won. 1 eventual Oscar winner was nominated here but didn’t win.

International Feature:

Started in 2020, only Drive My Car has won here and been nominated at the Oscars- it won. Only The Worst Person in the World and The Zone of Interest have overlapped with Oscar noms otherwise; Zone of Interest won at Oscars.
AWIAL is ineligible at Oscars.

Best Documentary:

*EVERY single* winner since 2012 has gone on to be nominated at the Oscars for Best Documentary Feature. 3 of these have won the Oscar.

No Other Land keeps defying the odds!

Best Feature:

In the last decade, 80% of Best Feature winners went onto Best Picture nominations, 5 to wins.

The eventual Best Picture winner at the Oscars has never *been nominated but not won* here.

Strange sign for Anora, Nickel Boys?

While not currently included in the #OscarsModel, there’s still lots to learn from the Gotham winners! A great kick off to the season with an excellent slate of winners.

Here’s a quick thread of all the top-line stats category-by-category: 🧵

Feels like a good moment before precursors really start rolling in to plant my flag here-

I’ve never *not* had The Seed of the Sacred Fig in my Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay predictions, and I have it also in Director and International Feature.

Let it be known!

Best first watches of November 2024:

-Anora (2024)
-A Real Pain (2024)
-Casablanca (1942)
-The Piano Lesson (2024)

Lots of current-season catching up this month, and some excellent rewatches. Onto December already!

Gladiator II was just fine, though its screenplay makes stubbornly poor decisions. Mescal's Lucius is stiff and not as charismatic as it requires. Pretty good to look at & immersion in Rome is still fun, but Denzel and production design can't make this float.

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Thinking of the different packages and internally consistent predictions are the hardest part of things- sometimes I concerned myself with it, and others I just worried about *most to least likely to be nominated.” Good example!

With the holiday weekend coming, I've finalized my new personal Oscar nomination predictions going into November.

*Everything* has now been seen (obviously not by me)! Wicked skyrockets, I take a swing on Conclave, and many races are full of uncertainty.

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#nw glad-two-ator

Who wants some updated #OscarsModel results after the HCA nominations?

We are finally up to 4 categories that have had two or more batches of multi-awardees, so these give us some insight- Cinematography, Score, Song, and Documentary Feature.

There were moments Deadwyler was really going where I had the same thought, that she was a Lead. But maybe just a couple more moments where she was out of the room and I really wondered where the heck she was; I think she’s absent just enough to be Supporting in the end. I didn’t mind the end!

HCAs give us our season’s full slate of above-the-line nominees! The categories most predictive of Oscar nominations in the #OscarsModel are Animated Feature (almost 80%!), Lead Actor, and both Screenplay categories (~70%). Important gets for Challengers, The Substance, & more that needed it!

Yeah, it’s really clearly good! I am already worried about Deadwyler’s chances, but I also think John David Washington would be a fine 5th-slot filler, and I prefer it in Adapted to a few others more in the race.

A ★★★★ review of The Piano Lesson (2024) Sad to see this one already losing steam this awards season (in large part by Netflix's own ambivalence towards it), because this is really quite good! I knew nothing of the story behind it and Wilson...

Sad to see this one already losing steam this awards season- it's quite good! I found it to be a fascinating rumination on legacy and trauma, and was impressed by Washington's debut direction and adaptation. Both Deadwyler and JDW impressed me! Solid.

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While only overlapping with the Oscars 18% of the time for nominees in total, Camerimage can be an early sign of strength for a dark horse contender, and “The Girl with the Needle” fits the bill! It goes into the #OscarsModel, and it’s one to keep your eye on.

The #OscarsModel remembers LA LLORONA...

Believe it or not, La Llorona was actually *the most likely film to be nominated for International Feature in 2021,* according to the math- ahead of Another Round! It's the biggest statistical snub in the category as far back as the Model's database goes.