Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

Let's zoom out from the drones. What Europe needs to counter the Russia threat is robust intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, and credible military power with defense production that could sustain it through war. Early warning and capability to disrupt and deter.

'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux

New research publication by Finnish National Defence University: 'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux

I had this experience writing about Ukraine in 2014-2015. So much has disappeared from original sources.

In the past week I read ”The Order of Time” and ”White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli, and I feel like these adventures in theoretical physics have twisted my brain into a knot. 😅

Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — June 2025 | UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years. The number of civilians killed in June ...

UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine: ”With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years.”

Think I’ll write about origins and current state of Finnish intelligence next.

Introduction How we're here and what to expect.

Here we go.

OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki | Substack Discussion, research and analysis on intelligence, with a Finnish twist. Click to read OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.

I have set up a new Substack. There are some things I want to write about over the summer, so you can follow along here: vpkivimaki.substack.com

Seizing the Opportunity to Enhance Intelligence-Policy Relations - ICDS The unusual geopolitical moment created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, now, by the shift in official US policy and tone present enormous challenges for Europe’s political leaders, nat...

Agree with @davidpriess.bsky.social 100%: investments in intelligence should not be bypassed while Europe makes historic raises in defense spending. Good observations on making intelligence relevant for the policymaker in his recent article. icds.ee/en/seizing-t...

Thanks Janne! @markstout.bsky.social, can you drop me an email? Could potentially help.

The US President's daily dose of intelligence Donald Trump’s reported restriction of the President’s Daily Brief represents just the latest change in six decades of ebb and flow in the readership of this top secret, highly coveted document.

In light of CNN’s recent reporting that the administration has cut back access to the President’s Daily Brief, I trace here the evolution of a dozen presidents’ choices about the PDB’s dissemination—a 60 year “who’s who” of intelligence-policy relations:
engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...

Have to say I'm somewhat blown away by what ChatGPT Deep Research can do. I pointed it at archive material I know quite well, gave few narrowing criteria, and the specifics it could draw from online archive material matched very well with what I know about the source material. Impressive progress.

NATO chief is worried about Russian space nukes “The development of nuclear weapons in space is a way for Russia to improve its capabilities,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte tells Welt am Sonntag.

NATO is concerned that Russia is seeking to deploy nuclear weapons in space, a development that could threaten the thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth that are crucial to defense as well as people's daily lives, the alliance's chief said.

TL;DR: The new U.S. tariff rate against our two largest trading partners is either 10%, 25% or 35%, and so far no one I've reached out to at the White House is able to tell me which.

Another Rocky Day in Markets: Stocks and Bonds Sink With the S&P 500 near a bear market, shares in Europe and Asia fell as China and other major U.S. trading partners confronted significantly higher tariffs. Investors also sold U.S. bonds.

Treasury bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil, because they offer investors a guaranteed payment backed by the U.S. government. Instead, investors are selling the assets.

Here's what to know.

Open-source researchers: whether you’re actively searching for evidence re: conflict-related sexual violence or not, you may find it. We've just launched the pilot Open-Source Practitioner’s Guide to the Murad Code w/ IICI to help www.muradcode.com/open-source-... @berkeleylaw.bsky.social

If Trump views Europe as an economic competitor, recent actions seem to only help close ranks in Europe.

16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage, according to Olek...

⚡️UPDATED: 16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih.

Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.

Not only that, it will also advertise things you already own.

Finland prepares to leave Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines Finland's defence spending will be increased to three percent of GDP by 2029 and much of that money will go towards upgrading Finnish Army equipment.

Major security related decisions by the Finnish government today:
🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029
🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines

Deterring China in the Arctic is tied to also dealing with the Russians, as Russia has become a route for China to access the Arctic. We explored the Russia/China Arctic relationship in our annual report. katsaus.supo.fi/en/china-in-...

A few thoughts:
— DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war)
— nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance

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Supo: Venäjä ja Kiina ovat merkittävä kyberuhka Suomelle Suojelupoliisi avasi ensimmäistä kertaa Suomeen kohdistuvia kyberuhkia.

Russia and China present the most significant cyber threats against Finnish national security. Russia has created a permissive environment for cyber criminals, which makes it possible also to mount deniable cyber operations. More about cyber threats to national security in this interview in Finnish.

Playing for Time: What the Kremlin Wants in New Talks with the U.S. on Ukraine - The Moscow Times As high-level delegations from the U.S. and Russia arrive in Saudi Arabia for the second round of bilateral talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s envoys will have one goal on their mind: ...

In Moscow, officials believe that Washington — which doesn’t view the exact dividing lines as a major priority — will pressure Kyiv to concede even more territory than Russia has been able to seize by force. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/23/p...

Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa

Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa

Former KGB double agent Oleg Gordievsky dies at Surrey home Counter-terrorism police are assisting the coroner, but his death is not being treated as suspicious.

Oleg Gordievsky has died
www.bbc.com/news/article...

I’m old enough to remember that the US used to be more than just one global partner among others.

From the EU white paper on defence:

www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/docume...

EU slams the door on US in colossal defense plan Bloc aims to build up military-industrial complex to deter Russia and brace for the U.S. shift away from Europe.

US arms-makers are being frozen out of the EU’s massive new defense spending plan, which aims to splash the cash for EU and allied countries.

Zelensky arrives in Finland for official visit to discuss security and strengthen ties President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska arrived in Finland for an official visit on March 18. The plane carrying the couple landed at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport in the afternoon.

⚡️ Zelensky arrives in Finland to discuss security and strengthen ties.

"Europe should be at the table, and everything that concerns Europe's security should be decided together with Europe," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram, announcing his arrival in Finland.