Torbjørn Kveberg

In his treatment of the rise of hegemonic powers, Wallerstein points to productive advantage, commercial advantage and financial advantage: cheaper/better manufacture boosts trade dominance which attracts investment.

And empirically the three advantages wane in the same order they wax.

I just want to point out that Bovino's response to Bill gives away the underlying worldview: Sympathizing with (black and brown) immigrants over (white) American citizens makes you a (race) traitor, which makes you a part of the "problem" (and thereby deserving of same treatment as the immigrants)

The Age of Academic Slop is Upon Us what happens when AI automates "normal science"?

I just finished a three-year term as an editor at an international relations journal. I began at the start of the LLM era but ended right in the middle of it. Our volume of submissions tripled and our desk reject rate rose to 75%. I have some thoughts.
open.substack.com/pub/hegemon/...

A reminder that the “carnage” Americans are now experiencing in #Minnesota and elsewhere is the direct result of the #trump regime’s policies, and the incompetent ideologues he appointed and has empowered. And don’t get me started about foreign policy.

Doubting U.S. resolve, Europe looks to bolster its own nuclear arsenal The discussions have taken on new urgency as President Trump escalates his criticism of Europe. Germany and Poland already have suggested France’s nuclear weapons could be expanded to defend their cou...

"'We are discussing how to protect Europe with a nuclear deterrent with or without the United States,' one of the European officials said. Another described the discussions among European leaders about ways to guard against a nuclear-armed Russia without the U.S. as 'intense and productive.'"

"JD Vance & Secretary of State Marco Rubio, had been 'pushing for a middle ground' on Greenland, while... Stephen Miller showed a willingness to keep annexation and the potential use of military force on the table ....the president had wanted to retain the option of a military move."

Europe should take away from this that standing up to Trump works where flattery only encourages him more as he sees it as weakness. The United States is powerful, but not invulnerable. A negative market response, abysmal US public opinion, and European resolve all helped to

Mr. Trump, sir, in response to your strong demands of strongly strength, we weakly agree to the NATO charter and continuing 80 years of precedent. And we promise not to mention our military moves and economic counter-threats, at least not in front of you. Who’s such a strong boy? You are! You are!

The president of the United States is so brain-dead that he doesn't remember which country he's threatening to destroy the world's greatest military alliance over.

Abstract and title page of PDF

Table 1

Table 2

I've felt for a while that a mainstream method, reverse engineering, in cognitive science & AI is incompatible w computationalism‼️ So I wrote "Modern Alchemy: Neurocognitive Reverse Engineering" w the wonderful Natalia S. & @irisvanrooij.bsky.social to elaborate: philsci-archive.pitt.edu/25289/
1/n

If your neighbour sets their house on fire for 4 years & then puts the fire out for 4 years & then sets their house on fire again for 4 more years, you probably shouldn't be making long term plans that rely on your neighbour's house not being on fire, even if they manage to put out the fire again.

Some perspective: The S&P opened down -1.3% on Trump's Greenland saber-rattling. That's $750 billion of wealth destroyed -- roughly equal to estimates of the value of Greenland.

And so ~in dollar terms~ his shenanigans have already cost the US one Greenland, and we've got nothing to show for it.

Geopolitical shocks can - and must - be an opportunity for Europe.

The seismic shift underway makes it both possible & necessary to build a new European independence.

From security to the economy.
From defence to democracy.

Europe is gathering speed.

→ link.europa.eu/6qt6hC

If you don’t give me the Nobel Peace Prize I’ll wage war is a classic 3-year-old gambit.

Trump’s Most Dangerous Gambit His irrational obsession with Greenland could lead to global conflict.

Danish and Greenland ministers just left the White House. It did not go well.
I have a long discussion here of Trump's attempt to get Greenland and why it could lead to World War III.

(Gifted.)

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

Trump with a straight face: Denmark can't claim Greenland just because "they had a boat land there 500 years ago"

One basic lesson from political research is that secret police generally rely on mediocre men willing to do the dirty work of authoritarian regimes in order to advance their careers.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-the-fb...

The Theory That Gives Trump a Blank Check for Aggression

#Trump & Co. claim to be ‘realists” who understand how power works in world politics In this NYT piece, Linda Kinstler talks to realist scholars (including yours truly) who explain what Trump and his minions get wrong. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/09/m...

Personal but professionally informed opinion, it is exceptionally unlikely that Russia or China would engage in a military conquest of Greenland. And wouldn't be difficult for the US to work with NATO allies to make Greenland even more safe from conquest than it is today

Eurasia Group | The Top Risks of 2026

top risks 2026 is officially out

after 28 years of analyzing geopolitical risks
this year is the tipping point:

This is basically the view of the world that Plato sets out to refute in the Republic. One of the core questions asked therein is: why do powerful people think the mere fact of them exercising dominion makes it good for them to do so? Sure, you *can* get away with stuff if you're powerful - so what?

I feel a great disturbance in the force, as if millions of political scientists cried out in bafflement and then suddenly fell into silent sobbing.

Those things are part of the international guard rails, because the world runs on norms and traditions more than it does on law

Plausible worst case scenario with Venezuela in four steps:

1. Rubio and Venezuelan exiles sell the idea of decapitation strikes against Maduro to Trump as the one big thing that solves Venezuela, cartels and Cuba for the US.

Written in 1945.

And the title is "The Story of Los Alamos Laboratory."

It has been a day, y'all.

Sauron wants to see Frodo succeed.

Pretty Obvious 973 Salmon-Hat Kelp Massage 359 Man Rescued Twice 781 Tortoise Mile/Month 489 Leaked Memo on Leaks 914 Grass Butt Chimp Fashion 407 18000 waters 470 Flood Museum Flooded 835 Police Are Scrambling 773 Long Meetings 486 Cat Buttholes Touch All 437 Louvre Password: Louvre 825 Emerges With Girlfriend 821 Pregnant/Not pregnant 412 Drunk Raccoon Passes Out 578 Resolved and Unresolved 770

Welcome to the thrilling Quarterfinal round of the 2025 Headline of the Year contest! (🎆🎆)

Mostly proceeded according to seeds, but second seed Resolved and Unresolved had a close scare with the Drunk Raccoon.

Let's review the results so far:

BJPolS abstract of an academic article discussing how democratic institutions prioritize citizen preferences regarding economic and physical security, with a focus on varied democratic features across thirty countries.

NEW -

Elections Without Constraints? The Appeal of Electoral Autocracy Across the World - https://cup.org/49auQPf

- @anjaneundorf.bsky.social, @sirianned.bsky.social, Kristian Vrede Skaaning Frederiksen & @aykutozturk.bsky.social

#OpenAccess

👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽

Professional societies keep beclowning themselves buying into a lie about what an LLM "summary" is. They are inherently counterfeit: not an epistemic product of the ideas in the source, but summary-shaped text linguistically based on *other* works (in the training corpus) that use related language.