Signals Eta

Woke up with thought that it is weird that dupe ships converge in one point in V shape instead of different shape.

observations:
looking at the picture, on the left side of the big "fan" there seems to be repeating pattern of short, short, short, long.

the speed sinusoid seems to shorten period(increase frequency) a bit.

unfortunately i am not equipped for ship work, will try to find some tools for that tmrw

I am curious about the very clean speed chart on first few swings.

No real ideas yet, let me turn computer on.

I know. I am european.

This does not work well, because then you have normalized incursions.

But perhaps hunting drones down and explicitly stating that you might from now on down anything sketchy in your airspace could change "navigation mistakes" by russian warplanes.

Renaming the territory away from name russians chose is "fuck you" move by countries, not denial of russian control over it.

Does getting new notebook mean that I will start taking notes or am I just buying office supplies as coping mechanism again?

"Buzz buzz buzz. An then in june 2010 it stopped, and internet went mad."

This part from the podcast always has given me shivers. And now i am crying.

Still too sketchy to me :D

Gps issue was mentioned after unexpected turn. So what did they see on their equipment that prompted them or autopilot to turn?

Thank you for your time and patience answering my probably dumb questions.

But I am just guessing and at least trying to exclude things. To me it doesn't make sense - they were descending in straight line. Assume GPS gets lost. You (as in imaginary pilot/autopilot):

a) Continue level
b) Make 20 degree roll away from airport?

Looking at VFR chart (aip.rossiya-airlines.com/Bulgaria/AD_...) and plotting on map, it seems they were going from RUMEN to LBPNH before deviating.

Regarding your second answer about ILS, Garmin Service Advisory 23070 might answer that, if the plane carries it.
(continued)

Yes, I meant the green track. Arrow points to airport with ILS30.

That is the turn where pilot reported to have GPS issues at the end of turn and told that they will try to continue to GNSS waypoint (they did cross it)

It made somewhat steep descent when landing at ~14m/s but doesn't seem too extreme.

Flight starts 29 oct 12:24Z Riga airport.

I am still not convinced about Leyens Bulgaria flight being hit by jamer.

However it was hit by jamer and a fucking russian circle spoofer over Estonia while on flight to Finland from Latvia.

Given that the plane was "picked up" by spoofer in middle of Estonia, not that seems targeted.

And just like that auonsson started their investigative journalist career 😀

You can make pretty narrow beam with reasonably sized antenna at that those frequencies, sou you can illuminate single plane.

Case in point - no other planes seemed to be affected, at least according to ads-b

Thanks. I understand if you don't want to speculate, but if autopilot unexpectedly armed for ILS approach, could it explain this turn?

Could you expand on this?
I am still stumped, at glance, i cannot spot anything significant in rinex itself, but likely am missing something.

Could you share the rinex file you used?
can't reproduce on REDZ00POL_S_20251650000_01D_30S_MO.crx maybe i grabbed wrong one?

Please don't drop it on our heads before morning coffee. Almost missed work. 😅

They are for lot of planes.

For flight in question the only interesting bit to me is "autopilot, approach" that doesn't sit well with "landed manually" for me. But I don't know what it involves.

The other modes during flight were althold and tcas that are not particularly interesting.

As a pilot, I have to say that the claims in the article don't make sense. All landings are manual except CAT III landings, which are based on the ILS system, not on a GPS-dependant system. Also, using paper charts doesn't affect the safety of flight. There is no difference to electronic charts.

Could you speculate a bit?
I believe i identified correct plane and it's ads-b reported coordinates with high precision until about 2km from threshold and 350m altitude. Likely dropped out from adsb receiver range at that point.

Is there anything meaningful we could infer from autopilot modes?

Yes, please.

Because to me the current narrative doesn't make sense together with what we can observe from adsb data.

At very least to me this is very much NOT like kaliningrad. Maybe local QRM and airport controller playing it safe?

Unlikely.

@auonsson.bsky.social has thread with deduction of what plane it is. It was transmitting valid gps coordinates and was on autopilot until it dropped out of ADSB range about minute from landing.

The loop is likely because it was too high for direct landing.

This is the one - It follows travel itinerary of Leyden. It was also transmitting ADSB having NACp <10m and being on autopilot. Most likely did a loop because was too high for direct landing from the initial loop.

I think I found it.

Anyone have additional information about flight?

can't spot anything fitting and also can't spot a cluster of impacted planes, but maybe i am missing something and need to narrow things down.