@garygnutter.bsky.social
Farmer, working on IT.
Finnish Coast Guard inspected ARCTICA (MMSI: 538011962 ) off the coast of Finland. Nothing found according to officials. Helicopter was seen hovering over anchored ship by passengers of ferry.
fyi, @auonsson.bsky.social
www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-...
This ought to be understood well in EU. IF we let Ukraine fall - certainly many would resist occupation - But THIS is what would happen. Also people must work... All that would be huge ++ for rus war machine
04.10.2025 09:23 — 👍 9 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0I think they are probing for a suitable level of incursion/action where part of nato is for artcl.5 while some are not.
Armed shaheed could be for one-time case, but better a downed plane with follow-up small escalation and land-grab for "security concerns"
Gotland is being armed.
Polish Navy landing ship ORP Toruń (825) travelled from military port of Gdynia to Visby, Gotland SE today. Stayed Visby port only 2 hours.
Ship is moving anti-ship missile systems to Gotland.
4th similar trip last 10 days. Operation Gotland Sentry.
WARNING UPDATE: The Kremlin is setting conditions to generate possibly violent protests to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power following the September 28 Moldovan parliamentary elections.
Read More: isw.pub/Moldova092525
Eyes on Moldova,
If sundays election goes to commies it would be pandora's box for region and Europe as whole. A stepping stone to balkans.
www.dw.com/en/is-this-t...
Important speech
Now we have official information with time, path etc. from Estonian Def.forces:
estonianworld.com/security/est...
Does not coincide with initial note about VAINDLOO island nor exit near Naissaari.
But source is quite credible..
I would say 6 allied fighters were tracking them. Also USS Bainbridge was ~near. But there are rules prior engagement. Q is: Are NATO nations ready for escalation. RUS would try to retaliate somehow. World is different now than when Turks shot down plane.
But these will continue until such time...
Finally a timeline for incursion: 0900FIN/EST => 0600UTC
"The aircraft crossed near Vaindloo Island over the Gulf of Finland shortly after 9 AM" estonianworld.com/security/est...
Have a look, This is approximate, but verified to last until Naissaari NW of Tallinn, Thus 300/350kn track length is closest
bsky.app/profile/gary...
Heh, yeah little less, but Americans tend to like to have "keep-out" zone which is not that much. 10-15nm, even 5nm in such tight spot. Anyway - it does not make incursion allowed.
Also, USS B had able time to reach Baltics by that time if they went even 12-15knots.
New info from EST, Incursion lasted until over Naissaari.
This is exactly below 300/350kt trackline.
www.hs.fi/maailma/art-...
USS Bainbridge departed Helsinki THU 18th, 16:20FIN => 13:20UTC so little late.
But I'm fairly sure ship could be linked to incursion, which occured 50km south, ~14-18 hours later.
Coincidentally USS Bainbridgen was on port call in Helsinki during the week. (www.hs.fi/helsinki/art...) , it was to depart THU 1100UTC. And will par-take exercises on N Baltics from 22th->
So where was it when MIG's violated airspace?
Were they "avoiding" overfly? @auonsson.bsky.social ??
And I'm sorry my Swedish friends. Griben => Gripen 😱
19.09.2025 19:18 — 👍 11 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
RUS Incursion into Estonia.
Data on ground tracks is not public. Also length of 12minutes could be approximate. But let's assume:
Here are possible ground tracks for various nominal cruising speeds. I would say 300-350kts is likely.
It's not small, nor a mistake. Articl.4 is warranted.
Might work against india, but not china. Definetly against slovaks and hungary.
While EU should grow some balls, also
I think "leader of the free world" should get their act together.. or they wont be for long.
At least license plate matches to Kalingrad region:
Codes 39 and 91 for Kalingrad
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle...
- Unverif claims of extra fuel tank => Could also be due to targeting western UKR.
- And of western SIMs => Those probably also operate on UKR soil, which might be real reason.
Accident - Unintentional incursion
- Tracks do not support this => Incursions were so deep and geo-distributed that malfunctions or gps jamming cannot really be reasons.
- Programming error => They send 100's drones every night to several targets, suddenly 19 cross border?
(-) Long term, EU re-armament might be faster as this gives political leeway for defence spending.
(-) Polish resolve and support for UKR increased.
What russia gained from this?
(+) They see how western political sphere still lacks resolve. Talk of anything that would cause _any_ "costs" to russians from this operation is non-existant. EU/NATO is purely in reacting mode and waiting for next push.
(+) USA was not really interested of this.
- No major player talks about defence shield over UKR (except UKR themselves), or other decisive action.
- Talk of was this intentional or accident - need to investigate, from almost all major players except Polish/Ukr/Baltic
- Trump's phatetic "maybe it were froggs falling cross-border"
Political probe - Test Political reactions and NATO resolve
- So far political sphere has been solidarity talk and other fluff.
- Article 4 invoked. Are more planned than seen so far?
- UN Security Council session requested by Poland.
- Eastern Sentry op initiated, purely defensive and reactionary.
(+) Operational data, propably nothing really revealing or beneficial.
(+) Possible hinderance on future supplies to UKR as more is reserved to NATO borders, this was denied by SACEUR, but...
What russia gained from this militarily?
(-) NATO was not ready, but to exploit this they would need to act during or immediately after ZAPAD, risky and unable to deny involment -> direct conflict. Also, known troop participation is not enough. Any later op is harder because of "awakening" NATO.
Military probe - Test NATO reaction to drone incursion
- 3-4/19 drones downed. Rest not. SACEUR admitted that resources weren't in place for larger incursion, and expecting only few. Focus was on those heading to military inst. or cities?
- SACEUR ordered Eastern Sentry op to bolster defences.
Some non-original thoughts on russian "special drone operation", was it military or political or both?
thread->
