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Devan Stormont

@lucidvoyager.bsky.social

Entrepreneur and builder Tech, olive oil, economics

365 Followers  |  530 Following  |  60 Posts  |  Joined: 19.10.2024  |  2.1929

Latest posts by lucidvoyager.bsky.social on Bluesky

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According to Bloomberg, Nigerian princes now represent safer investment opportunities than diminished European empires.

11.04.2025 23:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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If Trump is trying to suppress China, heโ€™s going about it all wrong The shock of tariffs is pulling Beijing back to economic fundamentals

"Ironically, just as the โ€œChina shockโ€ pushed the US out of low-end manufacturing, the โ€œTrump shockโ€ is propelling China to reallocate resources into higher value, advanced technologies that compete directly with the US."

www.ft.com/content/2583...

11.04.2025 20:45 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

"Economically, the net effect is negative. Costs rise for US consumers and US manufacturers reliant on imported inputs. Retaliatory measures reduce export opportunities. Overall trade volume shrinks. Growth slows, and no fundamental improvement in the US external balance occurs."

10.04.2025 17:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

AI judges tariffs and finds them wanting:

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

10.04.2025 17:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Matt Levine is going on vacation from his finance newsletter next week.

Given his vacation track record, we can expect weird market events to increase +20% during his absence.

Strap in.

10.04.2025 16:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image 09.04.2025 17:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Drew Pavlou ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ on X: "Incredible: Markets now rate Greek 30 year bonds a safer investment than US 30 year bonds. https://t.co/XMEiI2kLWp" / X Incredible: Markets now rate Greek 30 year bonds a safer investment than US 30 year bonds. https://t.co/XMEiI2kLWp

This is crazy. Markets now rate Greek bonds as safer investments than US Treasuries.

x.com/DrewPavlou/s...

09.04.2025 16:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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This is Donald Trumpโ€™s โ€œLiz Truss Momentโ€ In 2022, then-British Prime Minister Liz Truss announced an unfunded plan for tax cuts, convinced that the markets would welcome her โ€œpro-growthโ€ policies. Instead, the markets panicked. The pound โ€ฆ

Ever since Brexit, the American right seems determined to take England's mistakes and "do it bigger".

This is Trump's Liz Truss moment.

marketmonetarist.com/2025/04/09/t...

09.04.2025 15:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Bills and bonds and Treasury basis trades, oh my! A fresh look at an old bogeyman

FYI, the Treasury market is currently extremely leveraged. What could possibly go wrong?

www.ft.com/content/1df2...

08.04.2025 16:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Trump tariffs conjure specter of Smoot-Hawley Act, a Depression-era blunder The 1930 tariff bill hurt exporters and provoked other countries to enact their own tariffs as the U.S. economy grappled with the Great Depression.

"Trump has described the Smoot-Hawley tariff as a belated attempt to save the U.S. economy from the Depression, which could have worked had it been rolled out earlier."

We are so F'd.

www.washingtonpost.com/history/2025...

08.04.2025 15:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Strong words from Tracy in today's Bloomberg Odd Lots:

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

08.04.2025 15:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is not my preferred scenario, but it's the only viable outcome I can see from this whole mess.

The only way the US can salvage this is for Trump to wind everything back with tail tucked between his legs (good luck) or Congress stripping him of power (also good luck).

08.04.2025 00:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Trump gives China one day to end retaliations or face extra 50% tariffs China expects to outlast US in trade war, alarming Big Tech.

"China is 'ready to compete with the US in redefining the new global trade system' and cannot afford to 'tolerate US bullying.'" 3/

arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...

08.04.2025 00:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Trump gives China one day to end retaliations or face extra 50% tariffs China expects to outlast US in trade war, alarming Big Tech.

"If the US loses too much business, while China potentially gains, then China could potentially emerge as the global leader, possibly thwarting Trump's efforts to use tariffs as a weapon driving investment into the US." 2/

arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...

08.04.2025 00:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Trump gives China one day to end retaliations or face extra 50% tariffs China expects to outlast US in trade war, alarming Big Tech.

"For China, the bet seems to be that by imposing tariffs broadly, the US will drive other countries to deepen their investments in China." 1/

arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...

08.04.2025 00:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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So much winning โ€” in 15 charts The fallout from โ€˜Liquidation Dayโ€™

So much winning!
www.ft.com/content/b418...

07.04.2025 15:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Presidential Message on National Financial Literacy Month, 2025 The foundation of American economic prosperity is a society empowered with the knowledge and tools to make informed financial decisions to achieve the

Did you know? April was declared "Financial Literacy Month" ๐Ÿ˜‚
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

07.04.2025 15:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image 06.04.2025 16:17 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿ’ฒ๐Ÿ“ˆ Why Do Domestic Prices Rise With Tarriffs?

"The fundamental reason domestic prices rise with tariffs is that expanding production must displace other high-value uses."

"The result is a net loss of wealth."

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

06.04.2025 16:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Justice Dept. suspends lawyer who acknowledged deportation was a mistake Erez Reuveni had worked at the Justice Department for nearly 15 years, most recently as the acting deputy director of the Office of Immigration Litigation.

Admitting in court (aka, telling the truth) that your department broke the law?

Now that's a fireable offense: www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

06.04.2025 01:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Trumpโ€™s Tariffs Are Threatening the US Semiconductor Revival While the White House carved out a narrow exemption for some semiconductor imports, President Donald Trumpโ€™s sweeping tariffs still apply to GPUs and chipmaking equipment.

โ€œI see no soft landing to this,โ€ Hsu says. โ€œI see this as becoming an explosion of global supply chain disorder and chaos. The ramifications are going to be very long and painful.โ€
www.wired.com/story/trump-...

05.04.2025 18:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This is remarkably close to what we had six days ago. The average tariff rate of most European nations was about 1%.

05.04.2025 17:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1040    ๐Ÿ” 235    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 46    ๐Ÿ“Œ 8
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6) Just 25% of US adults say they expect their finances to look better in five years than today.

Thatโ€™s lower even than at the nadir of the Great Recession.

04.04.2025 12:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 970    ๐Ÿ” 185    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 9
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NEW ๐Ÿงต

A quick thread of charts showing how Trumpโ€™s economic agenda is going so far:

1) US consumers are reacting very very negatively.

These are the worst ratings for any US governmentโ€™s economic policy since records began.

04.04.2025 12:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3583    ๐Ÿ” 1519    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 92    ๐Ÿ“Œ 258
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Learning from Smoot-Hawley And a dozen other thoughts on the Trump shock

This is looking awfully like a replay of Smoot-Hawley and the devastation that followed (the stock market didn't regain its June 1930 high until 1955). Even Rand Paul has said those tariffs lost Congress for Republicans for 60 years.

scottsumner.substack.com/p/learning-f...

05.04.2025 02:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Learning from Smoot-Hawley And a dozen other thoughts on the Trump shock

MUST READ for people looking for historical context.

Scott Sumner is on fire with this one.

He quotes at length from his book The Midas Paradox (written in 2015) and it NAILS the current moment.

scottsumner.substack.com/p/learning-f...

05.04.2025 02:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Trump Gives Chinaโ€™s Xi a Chance to Win Over World Hit by Tariffs Donald Trumpโ€™s decision to boost tariffs on almost every country will deal a blow to Chinaโ€™s economy. But itโ€™s also handing Xi Jinping a rare opening to deepen relationships across the board, includin...

โ€œChina now has a golden opportunity to beat America at its own game.โ€

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

03.04.2025 16:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The new Gotham economy.

03.04.2025 14:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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