Ed Arnold

💯

NATO’s Leader Is Totally Lost What does Mark Rutte think he’s doing?

This is more funny than the author knows because ”to be out and biking” is a Swedish idiom meaning that you’ve totally misunderstood something.

Apart from the catchy headline, many very good points in the text by Stephen M. Walt. Worth your while.

So it looks like Chris Wormald will be leaving his job as cabinet secretary

I wrote this just before he was appointed - did he achieve these tasks?

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/...

Lithuania’s ‘Plan B’ for a Europe with fewer American troops Lithuanian PM Inga Ruginienė tells POLITICO she wants U.S. troops to stay, but argues that “you never know what can happen.”

Lithuania is looking to its European allies to prepare for the day when it may not be able to rely on U.S. troops to defend itself against Russia, Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė has said.

The UK Whole of Society Defence and the Reality of Modern War The national conversation must address society’s preparations to defend itself, reimagining the citizen solider of the 21st century, and every sector’s role in this effort.

Latest for @rusi.bsky.social

If the PM has failed to start his own national conversation on defence in 18 months, why would his (potential) successor? Time is running out!

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

EU parliament chief calls for ‘exorcism’ of ghosts in UK ties The “ghosts of the past” cannot be allowed to derail future cooperation, said Roberta Metsola.

Write up of Metsola comments on the UK. One can see some momentum growing for deeper relations / moving on from divorce. But that will have to be built politically in the first instance rather than through detailed negotiations. www.politico.eu/article/eu-p...

Shifting Security in Latin America Programme We examine the fast-evolving security and defence agenda in Latin America and consider the most effective ways to counter the leading threats across the region.

At 10:30 am GMT Carlos Solar will give evidence to Foreign Affairs Committee on the implications of the US intervention in Venezuela.

Tune in: https://committees.parliament.uk/event/26383/formal-meeting-oral-evidence-session/

Visit our page below for more on our research on Latin America.

Starting to wonder about the EU dimension of this. Mandelson was EU trade commissioner - one of the most important EU portfolio - in 2004 to 2008 after all.

Of course the PM doesn’t have the power to unilaterally remove Mandelson from the Lords. But given it can only be removed via an act of Parliament in government time, Starmer is hardly powerless, indeed he is the only person who can make it happen.

The Alternative for Germany party has done everything from suing to attempting to leverage ties to the Trump administration to end their banishment from the Munich Security Conference.

Those efforts appear to have paid off.

🔗 www.politico.eu/article/germ...

"If Europe is as serious about preventing Ukraine’s defeat as it now appears to be, a coordinated long-term strategy will do more to help Kyiv...than its current practice of lurching from one aid package to another."

Read the latest from @sophiabesch.bsky.social 🔽

He's going to get a bit of a suprise when he reads the new US National Defence Strategy!

Has Rutte read the US National Defense Strategy? It basically says that in the future the US will only provide "critical but more limited support" to a European conventional force.

How is that different from the concept he is criticising?

Minus 18 degrees centigrade coming up for Murmansk this week. Hasn't had power for four days. That might sharpen a few minds as to what the Russian government is squandering the natural resource bonanza on.

I still don't buy the idea of a CRINK alliance - yes, there are points of convergence, yes, there is cooperation, but it's no tight strategic alignment or an "axis". For me, it's a US framing (from a very specific perspective) which does not help Europe tailor its foreign policy response.

Despite the matcho language to help credibility and deterrence, I see no circumstances where European forces would fire first on the US.

Dozens of shadow fleet tankers have traversed the English Channel since promises of tougher stance.

Danish Straits see about the same numbers.

BBC is not clear on if they mean flagless or flagged tankers, but either way there are lots.

Pic related, sanctioned tankers this minute.

Greenland: The New Battleground in US-Europe Relations A briefing and Q&A with a panel of RUSI experts, exploring the implications of President Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, part of NATO ally Denmark.

We are hosting a RUSI member exclusive briefing and Q&A with a panel of RUSI experts tomorrow. The panel will be exploring the implications of President Trump’s threats to annex Greenland.

Not a RUSI member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

Finally

Donald Trump’s grab for Greenland makes no sense It would harm America’s security and its economy

One part of The @economist.com's cover package this week is a detailed, methodical and compelling dismantling of the Trump admin's ever-shifting case for acquiring Greenland, almost every element of which is false, exaggerated or confused. A truly confected crisis.
www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Four VCs for UK forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Two of them posthumous. An obvious question for his British admirers.

What a week to discuss Arctic and High North security at the @rusi.bsky.social

Now to write something coherent and future proofed...

Of course the NATO Secretary General isn't going to further inflame things by commenting in public, but he must know that this is nothing like Greece-Turkey. The US has been the dominant state NATO, the primary security provider, and it's now threatening to invade a fellow member.

Eurgh

“We have done so much for America”: Denmark fought alongside the U.S. in Afghanistan. Now, as Trump eyes Greenland, the families of fallen soldiers have a message for him, @isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social reports: theatln.tc/I8nGcxwO

Why Keir Starmer had to speak out against Trump over Greenland after staying quiet on Venezuela Pragmatic realism called for compromise when it came to Venezuela, but there is no reasonable explanation for an invasion of Greenland.

@jasonralph.bsky.social and me wrote the following bit about what Trump's shenanigans mean for the balancing act Starmer has tried to maintain in British foreign policy. TLDR, there's a reckoning coming...
theconversation.com/why-keir-sta...

Called it!

UK urged to beef up Greenland support amid Trump threats Former Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is among those calling for Britain to make better use of the existing Joint Expeditionary Force.

Senior figures from across the British political spectrum are calling on the government to make a more visible show of support for Greenland in the face of continued threats from Donald Trump’s White House.

This is *before* the new budget increases, which could take the total cost over £100bn www.ft.com/content/3f73...