Vasil Lazarov

Next Labour Deputy Leader is likely to be to the right of the party on economic issues.

Based on our estimates with @chanret.bsky.social and @ukandeu.bsky.social

You can play around with it on www.mpsleftright.co.uk

Labour Deputy Leadership MP Nominations

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...

The Professor Will See You Now: Ranking MPs' politics Professor Philip Cowley offers a political science lesson for The House’s readers. This week: ranking the politics of MPs

Latest @thehousemag.bsky.social piece - on how to rank MPs, inc one of my fave academic studies, which put Diane Abbott to the right of Giles Radice.

Also includes Rush reference.

NEW: Our latest poll of full- and part-time workers found only a third think their organisation is ready to take advantage of AI.

However, this jumps to 58% of those in tech, media, or communications.

@chrisrsurvation.bsky.social analyses the results below

Read more: wp.me/p1cU9i-7jF

🧵 1/5

Labour will certainly be pleased to win this one, but that's a pretty close result; if you run these as uniform swings versus 2021, it only secures a total of 8 Labour constituency MSPs versus 51 for the SNP.

As I've said before, this was must-win for Labour, but margin matters, and it's not huge!

Who would make the best prime minister by age groups?

This and more from my colleague @chrisrsurvation.bsky.social below 👇

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention

RFM 27 (-3)
LAB 24 (-1)
CON 20 (+2)
LD 13 (-)
GRN 8 (+1)
OTH 7 (-)

F/w 30th May - 2nd June 2025. Changes vs 5th May.

🧵1/7

I’ve never understood the irrational opposition to universal ID in this country so very happy to see this in my inbox today

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015.

This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

Agree - think there’s a real danger of ‘overfitting’ to this election by making 4-5 methodological changes that each gets you .5-1pt closer to the result… obviously not applicable to wider questions (e.g. ethnicity)

Some reflections on Runcorn

New Senedd polling shows Labour in the lead but with Reform and Plaid close behind.

LAB 27%
REF 24%
PC 24%
CON 15%
LD 5%
GRE 5%
OTH 1%

F/w 10th March - 3rd April.

@jackpeacock1.bsky.social explores the findings here: www.survation.com/senedd-polli...

A big shift in mood among Labour members after the spring statement.

Support for the leadership has dropped sharply, welfare reforms are seen as damaging, and next month's local elections are expected to go very badly.

More below👇

I’m just a girl standing in front of a boy telling him it’s not true he has become more right-wing… it is me who has become more left-wing 🫠

Screenshot of the linked Quarto website, with input checkboxes to change different conditions for a regression model that predicts economic performance based on US political party, with a reported p-value

I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :(

So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/

We (@survation.bsky.social) have launched an exciting new partnership with @labourlist.bsky.social to provide regular polling of Labour Party members on their views of cabinet, leadership, policies and external threats.

Findings from our first poll below 👇

Holyrood only in this one indeed

Highest support we have ever recorded for Reform UK in a Scottish poll, while the SNP maintains an 11-point lead over Labour

A British election factoid I hadn't noticed until I was updating my lecture slides - in 2024 only 15% of constituencies were won by a majority of votes. That is less than half the previous low of 34% recorded in 2010.

We are hiring!

Survation is looking for a Trainee Research Executive to join our team. If you are passionate about polling, data analysis, and public opinion research, apply now!

Deadline: 24th March 2024

More details: www.survation.com/survation-is...

Postgraduate taught Innovative degree programmes with superb teaching and excellent research credentials

Are you an U/G in the social sciences looking for a Masters programme? Have you considered @rhulpir.bsky.social ? You can find a list of our programmes at www.royalholloway.ac.uk/research-and... <- MSc Elections, Campaigns and Democracy w/ Adv. Quant Methods taught by @caprosser.com wd be my pick

I have a new article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social 🎉

It uses conjoint experiment in the UK to test how important the culture war (statues, LGBT+ representation in pop culture, DEI, transwomen athletes, curriculum diversity, and university free speech) is to voters

Link👇 & results 🧵

Placing MPs from left to right - UK in a changing Europe Chris Hanretty and Vasil Lazarov discuss their recent research estimating the left-right position of UK Members of Parliament, outlining how these estimates...

Fascinating insights fon where MPs stand rom @chanret.bsky.social and Vasil Lazarov ukandeu.ac.uk/placing-mps-...

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries & UK gilts reflect borrowing costs for those governments. Here's how UK and US government 10 yr borrowing costs have trended over the past 3 months. Without checking - which one is the world's strongest economy and which is the country apparently in a crisis?

Really cool work by @chanret.bsky.social and @vlazarov.bsky.social!

Speaking of left-right positions of UK MPs, it turns out that their social media followership is also an extremely effective way of generating ideology estimates too 👇👀👇

doi.org/10.1017/S000...

How left- or right-wing is each MP? | Survation New data published today as part of Survation’s ongoing partnership with Royal Holloway University of London and with support from UK in a Changing Europe...

How left- or right-wing is each MP?

New data by @chanret.bsky.social and @vlazarov.bsky.social in partnership with Survation and @ukandeu.bsky.social reveals the (economic) left-right positions of individual MPs.

www.survation.com/how-left-or-...