Sam Kuhn

Consumer spending and after-tax incomes both fell in May, adjusted for inflation. #NumbersDay
Full data: www.bea.gov/news/2025/pe...

The kids are not alright

Likewise, the 12-month change in nonfarm payrolls is at its weakest spot since 2011

Job finding rate is at its lowest point in nearly a decade

#econsky #jobsday

🇨🇦 Canada's upcoming election coincides with a pivotal economic moment. @samrkuhn.bsky.social covers the state of the Canadian economy, and labor market in particular: recruitonomics.com/a-pivotal-mo...

A larger share of Canadian households fear they may lose their job in the next 12 months than compared to the peak of the pandemic

Calm before the tariff storm? Nonfarm payroll growth was surprisingly resilient in March as the labor market added 228,000 new jobs.

The main question now is following Liberation Day, what's the labor market's pain tolerance?

#jobsday #econsky

they're really not holding back

🚨 JPMorgan recession risk odds now at 60%

News today pushing GDP forecast further negative due to another -0.6 percentage point annualized rate revised forecast for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), -0.2 for equipment, & -0.1 for residential fixed investment.

The only upward revised forecast is in government spending.

Gold adjusted GDP now still tracking negative
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...

We need to boil down abundance to four emojis: 🏠 🚋 💊🔋

www.economist.com/finance-and-...

this is perfect, thank you!

What's the best package for synthetic control estimation in python? #econsky

Next years inflation expectations are back to Oct '22

Consumers have boosted growth significantly the past three years, this is a big warning sign that households are reacting in real-time to uncertainty and drawing back spend

Second: Visa's Spending Momentum Index - tracking consumer's spending habits across discretionary and nondiscretionary categories dropped significantly in Feb as well, indicating a consumer that is rapidly reigning in spending habits

usa.visa.com/partner-with...

Two concerning data points emerging from consumer spending: Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary is tracking a near percentage point decline in retail sales for Feb, following a weak Jan

www.chicagofed.org/research/dat...

Cava in Cambridge must have got an early copy of Ezra Klein’s and @dkthomp.bsky.social new book

Calm before the storm in the February #jobsreport:

-Payrolls up 151,000, a touch below expectations
-Unemp ticked up to 4.1%
-Wage growth grows 4% YoY

Report was a touch softer than expected but precedes any downstream impacts from the DOGE layoffs + tariffs

#NumbersDay 1/

Big drop in Federal gov't employment #econsky

I'm traveling today, but the data ended up coming out some time between 11:30 am-3:30 pm PT

bsky.app/profile/dani...

what are your thoughts on ADP employment data?

Big jump in UI claims for Federal workers this morning - highest total since '21

Harmonized CPI (excluding owner-occupied housing) is now more than a percentage point higher than its low last August - no longer is housing to blame for inflation progress

Thank you!

Create a data frame of map data — map_data Easily turn data from the maps package into a data frame suitable for plotting with ggplot2.

Anyone have any idea why the map data function in ggplot2 is missing Alaska/Hawaii? #rstats

ggplot2.tidyverse.org/reference/ma...

The Past, Present, and Future of the US Labor Market | Recruitonomics January's jobs report features historical revisions of 2024 data that change the way we think about today and tomorrow's labor market.

Past, present and future of US labor market: @andrewflowers.bsky.social and myselfs coverage of jobs day
recruitonomics.com/the-past-pre...

When you talk about instituting policies that raise prices, don't be surprised if it leads people to worry that price rises are coming. And the Fed's going to worry that these expectations become self-fulfilling.

Just want us all to appreciate the beauty that we have assembled here at #EconSky and #NumbersDay on #JobsDay.

We are legion.
bsky.app/profile/elis...