Mike Geruso

"The question for historians, sociologists, and demographers is whether replacement level fertility is compatible with modern values of individuality, choice, and control, and if so, how." I hope more academics will take up this question, rather than assuming the answer must be "no."

"Even if fertility rates drop as fast as projected, the top of the population spike will be in about 2080. We will only get back down to our current population in about 2150. One way or another, we need accelerated, human-created solutions to climate change."

"Spears and Geruso persuasively argue that a big reduction in world population will not actually solve the problems many of us imagine they will solve... Too many commentators are hoping that a shrinking population will naturally put less pressure on the environment."

Last night I had the pleasure of interviewing @mikegeruso.bsky.social at a Zoom event about his phenomenal book, AFTER THE SPIKE: POPULATION, PROGRESS, AND THE CASE FOR PEOPLE (a.co/d/if8wE7u). This is a thread on my key takeaways from the conversation 🧵

The Economic Case for Higher Birth Rates Is Bigger than You Think The fiscal challenges of an aging population matter, but the innovation and progress that could be lost in a shrinking world matter even more

www.briefingbook.info/p/the-econom...

My piece today in Briefing Book: "The Economic Case for Higher Birth Rates Is Bigger than You Think"

The fiscal challenges of an aging population matter, but the innovation and progress that could be lost in a shrinking world matter even more.

Very much looking forward to this conversation with Katy!

A new paper by Vincent Rollet at MIT replicates Li's 2022 finding that new construction reduces rents within a 500-foot radius in NYC vrollet.github.io/files/city_s...

Hannah: "After the Spike … explores all of these population issues in more detail. As is quite rare for a book looking at birth choices and reproductive decisions, it’s compassionate rather than preachy or pushy… a very good anchor to inform and open up these conversations."

We discuss climate impacts and much more in After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People. afterthespike.com

Population growth or decline will have little impact on climate change It'll be too slow and too late for the timeframes that we need to decarbonise.

Hannah’s substack: www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/population...

New substack by ‪@hannahritchie.bsky.social‬ explaining why population decline isn’t a bright spot in our climate future. “Large demographic changes happen over longer timescales than we have to get emissions down.” She reviews findings from our recent NBER working paper. Links in the thread:

🎉📚 Exciting news!

My new book — Clearing the Air — will be published in the UK in September.

50 of the most common questions I get about how we tackle climate change. 50 short, data-driven answers.

www.penguin.co.uk/books/462676...

Another is we’re looking, in part, at India—which ends up being meaningfully different.

One difference is that Phil and Melissa are looking, in part, at cohort fertility at ages when women haven’t yet completed their fertility. They are previewing a likely future of completed fertility. We’re restricting to cohort parity at age 40. So the past.

I really enjoyed this. Separate from how you feel about population, I repeatedly had assumptions overturned by their really deep stats. Maybe my favorite pop sci read during the last year.

This is one of those "most of your intuitions are wrong" books.

So excited that this will be out in the world tomorrow! And grateful to everyone who helped make it happen.

Opinion | Depopulation Is Coming. Don’t Expect It to Solve Our Problems.

Thanks Jacob. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/o...

Opinion | Depopulation Is Coming. Don’t Expect It to Solve Our Problems.

Good article (based on their forthcoming book!) by my former CEA colleague @mikegeruso.bsky.social

The Population Bust Won’t Solve the Climate Crisis www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/o...

Thanks Kyle!

Cutting Medicaid Is A Risky Move for Republicans Medicaid has grown by 8.46 million or 32% in Red Districts Since 2013

Mike Johnson spent the wknd talking up his Medicaid cuts

Once, Medicaid cuts might have been an easy sell to Rs

Today, it’s tougher

New in @briefingbook.bsky.social w @mikegeruso.bsky.social and Daniel Posthumus on the rise of Medicaid in red districts

🧵 👇

www.briefingbook.info/p/cutting-me...

The idea you could cut almost a trillion dollars from Medicaid without affecting benefits is… really something.

31st Annual NIHCM Awards; Now taking entries for the 2025 NIHCM Awards for excellence in health care research; Deadline: March 28, 2025; NIHCM.org

Researchers, have you applied to the #NIHCMAwards?

There is only one week left to submit an application. Submit today to be recognized for your excellence in health care research.

Deadline: March 28, 2025
Prize: $20,000
Apply now: bit.ly/3ieivm3

@asacarny.bsky.social @mikegeruso.bsky.social

Thrilled that this is now 75 miles from my doorstep. Vaccines are a miracle of modern medicine and turning our back on them is madness.

Tim Layton and I talk Medicare Advantage upcoding with Derek.

The Trump-Musk Doctrine: F-ck Around and Find Out Plain English with Derek Thompson · Episode

The DOJ has just opened an investigation in wasteful billing practices, including diagnostic upcoding, at UnitedHealth's Medicare Advantage program.

What's upcoding? When does makes a medical billing practice fraudulent?

All answered on this week's ep —>

open.spotify.com/episode/1lTP...

The Trump-Musk Doctrine: F-ck Around and Find Out Plain English with Derek Thompson · Episode

New ep: The Trump-Musk doctrine of "fuck around and find out" has already demolished global aid programs, collapsed essential govt data collection services, and nearly caused a nuclear security crisis via accidental firings. This is no way to run a government.

open.spotify.com/episode/1lTP...

The Trump-Musk Doctrine: F-ck Around and Find Out Plain English with Derek Thompson · Episode

Govt efficiency would be a worthy goal, even if interest payments didn't exceed defense spending. But understanding efficiency means understanding tradeoffs. So I talk to health policy profs Michael Geruso and Tim Layton about the art of finding real waste in govt.

open.spotify.com/episode/1lTP...

Sorry Peter.

College of Liberal Arts | The University of Texas at Austin Liberal Arts at UT offers over 40 majors and many top-ranked graduate programs in the social sciences and humanities taught by 750 faculty.

We have a great group of PhD students on the job market this year! Check them out, and contact placement director @mikegeruso.bsky.social with any questions.
liberalarts.utexas.edu/economics/ph...