Scott Claessens

Thank you @dingdingpeng.the100.ci, very helpful! 😀

But yes, your point about inferring that X --> Y is zero seems correct to me!

Hence why I am now wondering if I can use Z as an instrumental variable to estimate the causal effect of X on Y.

For context, this is a survey-based experimental design.

We designed Z as a way to exogenously manipulate X. We found support for that in a pilot study - there was a total effect of Z on X.

In our main study, we found no total effect of Z on Y. In a larger path model, we also found no direct effect of Z on Y - but found an indirect effect through X.

Check out our new pre-print on negative perceptions of outsourcing to AI!

Although Z could in theory influence Y, our experiment showed no total/direct effect of Z on Y. Can we then use this null result to justify using Z as an instrumental variable in a follow-up analysis? @rmcelreath.bsky.social @dominikdeffner.bsky.social @dingdingpeng.the100.ci

Causal inference question!

We want to know whether there is a causal path from X --> Y. However, both variables likely share unobserved confounds (U). We have developed an experimental manipulation that directly influences X (Z --> X) but not Y (Z ⫫ Y). Can we use Z as an instrumental variable?

YES! So happy to see this finally out. I can't wait to read it. Congrats!

There is a lot of hype about AI and empathy, but what role do we really want AI to play in enhancing empathy? 🤖 Here, Ethan Landes and I argue that AI should only develop human empathy as a tool for moral growth, not replace it 👇

osf.io/preprints/ps...
@ethanlandes.bsky.social

🎵 zotero, zo-te-ro... zotero, zo-te-ro!

Hi new friends! It's great to see the wave of people moving over from the Other Place.

I recently started a postdoc at the University of Kent looking at the moral psychology of AI. I'm also interested in cultural evolution, politics, and cooperation. Hoping to share some cool research soon!

Not technically misuse, but I read a paper recently where they wrote "p < 0.000000000001". It's not just significant, but really _really_ significant!

I had no idea that's where it came from!

We’re excited to announce that Nature Reviews Psychology is now on Bluesky! Please help spread the word by following us and reposting.
 
#PsychSciSky #Psychology #socialpsyc #cogpsyc #ClinPsych #devpsy

Excited to share this new preprint, a collaboration with Nichola Raihani and Quentin Atkinson.

What motivates people to punish others? We find that while many people choose not to punish, those who do punish are motivated by egalitarianism rather than deterrence or norm-enforcement.

I can confirm that these guys are doing awesome work here in Auckland!

Yep. I'd be curious to see what you come up with! This seems like a nice case of a biologically-inspired model where you can get immediate feedback on whether it makes good predictions or not.

Right. You could also see it the other way though: I set the amount of reps and see the max weight I can lift. Then what's the max weight when I set reps to 1?

Cool question! Wouldn't you want to do it the other way round though? And allow for a non-linear effect? Something like:

maxWeight ~ LogNormal(mu, sigma)
mu = a + b*log(reps)

Then exp(a) will give you your expected one rep max.

It is indeed! Thank you for your work on the package. I am now just realising that we did not cite the package in the paper! So sorry! I will do better next time.

Cross-national analyses require additional controls to account for the non-independence of nations -... Nations are connected in many ways, yet cross-national analyses often assume they are independent. Here, the authors show that previous studies may not have sufficiently accounted for this non-indepen...

Now I'm here, I may as well plug our new paper on the non-independence of nations! 🌏

So happy for this to finally be published open-access at Nature Communications. Worth a read if you're thinking of including any cross-national analyses in your next project!

My first post on Bluesky! Happy to have finally moved here from the other place. Let's hope this is more successful than the Mastodon migration.