Andrew B. Watkins

We are on a path to, at best, 2.7°C. Not win at all.

One of my favourites. Vale Jon Kudelka

Grass looking crispy :-(

La Nina + neg IOD = cold Australia, right?
Not anymore.
Just released: "2025 was Australia's 4th warmest year since national temperature records began in 1910. For Australia as a whole, the national annual average temperature was 1.23 °C above the 1961–1990 average"
www.bom.gov.au/climate/curr...

Winter Olympic athletes juggle the mental load of large carbon footprints that contribute to a warmer world & loss of snow, with a love of their sport, mountains & representing their nation. Hence more are speaking out on the need to move away from fossil fuels. #POW
www.nbcmiami.com/olympics/202...

Just noting that no sensible scientist is going for El Niño this early (southern autumn is the ENSO predictability barrier), even though the ENSO models are unusually emphatic. Key story is really that we are setting up for a record global temperature in the next handful of years.

Comments from me in today’s Guardian on the chance of El Niño in 2026 & record global temperatures in 2026 or 27.
TL:DR La Niña is unlikely, but either neutral or El Niño more likely in 2026. With accelerating global warming, we may not even need a strong El Niño to give record global temperatures.

Great article on the climate threats to both winter and summer Olympics
theconversation.com/climate-chan...

My interview with ABC Radio today on the threat that climate change plays to the Winter Olympics (which starts this week in Italy) and Australia’s snow seasons, and the need to Protect Our Winters.
drive.google.com/file/d/1Z6zS...

#ridetoworkmelb #melbweather

And a large proportion don’t. On the flip side, expecting individuals to act while governments don’t is exactly what mining companies and others want. Action at scale is what’s required, and that’s a local, national and global government effort, not just Joe Average sorting their plastics.

You won’t find many of us Australian climate or biodiversity folks disagreeing with you!

Mornings - ABC listen Mornings pulls apart the issues that interest the Canberra community

I did a live interview today discussing the shortening window of reliable natural snow for the Winter Olympics (starting in Italy on Friday) and Australia, and the importance of having plans to Protect Our Winters.
From the 5min mark of
www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

Absolutely enormous sunspot on the surface of the Sun that is visible with eclipse glasses or a solar filter - no telescope required. Just took a look at it myself.

Could be interesting when it is directed more towards Earth later this week.

www.spaceweather.com

#Melbourne is so parched. 3mm of rain in the past six weeks and repeated heatwaves. Example of an intense flash drought coming on top of an ordinary rainfall year.

While we have been watching the heat, inland Qld has floods.
Already areas have had a years worth of average rainfall in first 5 weeks of the year, with almost 3 months to go in their wet season.

www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...

Australian Winter Olympic Success At Risk Due To Climate Change Impacts - Protect Our Winters Australia

Press release from Protect our Winters on the threats to Australia’s snow season, high country and Winter Olympians, with some quotes from me (and from Olympians!)

protectourwinters.org.au/press/austra...

YouTube video by ABC News (Australia) Australians to experience more 50C days as heatwaves intensify, experts say | ABC NEWS

Thanks Adam Morgan for asking me and Sarah Kirkpatrick to be involved in this ABC News story about the heatwaves. Normalising the difficult conversations about climate risk is important, and it’s a credit to the ABC.
youtu.be/goMyuDCKS9M?...

I spoke about heat records, NCRA, Antarctica and the arts on Einstein-a-Go-Go (3RRR) this morning. Listen at:
www.rrr.org.au/shared/broad...

"Heatwave? Its always been hot up here."
There were 6 days in January 2026 above 45.0C at Mildura.
Mildura only reached 45C a total of 6 times from 1946-2000 (54 years).
Mildura has reached 45C a total of 27 times since 2000.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/...
*hat tip Gary Weymouth

Congratulations to Port Augusta AUSTRALIA
for recording the most Southern 50C (122F) in world climatic history.

It's one of the several world records being set in this unbelievable heat wave,
By far, the harshest the Southern Hemisphere has ever seen

More records on Saturday !

Please don’t give ammunition to the ‘scientists are to blame for not telling us’ crowd.

I get where you are coming from, but this isn’t a formal attribution piece but a look at the types of patterns that give us our most extreme heatwaves. It’s a piece of the puzzle - educating people about what patterns generate a heatwave. The formal attribution assessments will come.

Similar but different - certainly in Melbourne a lot less wind, and the early inversion this time meant the morning started cool.

Anatomy of a heatwave: how a cyclone, humid air and atmospheric waves drove brutal heat in the southeast In 2009, the combination of a cyclone, atmospheric waves and warm moist air triggered a record-breaking heatwave. It’s happening again.

Great article on the causes of the current heatwave by Tess Parker @tessjparker.bsky.social and Michael Barnes. Most people would not realise that Tropical Cyclones off NW Australia in Jan/Feb actually drive an extra kick in our SE Australia heat.
theconversation.com/anatomy-of-a...

Second day with SA recording a 50C now...
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...

As Sean Dooley from Birdlife Australia has pointed out, birds dont sweat. If there is no water for them they will die. @birdlifeglobal.bsky.social

First 50C (provisional) of the heatwave posted at Andamooka (SA) yesterday. May not be the last.
Data at: reg.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/...

Concerning temperatures in South Australia today. Roxby Downs already 49.4C at 2:17pm local time. Recent maximums have been hit around 4pm.
Also 49.0C at Maree - second day in a row 49+, 4th consecutive day over 48. 'Only' 47C forecast tomorrow.
Is 50C on the cards?
www.bom.gov.au/sa/observati...

If only we had some sort of report - a risk assessment if you will - that told government if this is all going to get better or worse...