Dan Tuke

The conclusion isn't 'Qanon was right' it's 'Qanon was an op to install Trump, Musk, Thiel and dozens of other Epstein pals into the halls of power and build the most pro-sex criminal regime since slavery.' Which was obvious years ago.

With a leaders like Schumer and Jeffries, the dozens of melts in the party will feel confident scuttling anything they want.

Gamergate probably happened because of Jeffrey Epstein.

It gets to a point.

This race was such a massive swing blowout that Democrat Taylor Rehmet literally won a city called White Settlement

A little girl in Portland, OR after being tear gassed by ICE. what the actual fuck.

I guess “don’t take meetings with pedophiles” is too much to ask lol

Never mind the jobs you had, tell me five classes you took in college

-Russian War in Film

-Family Values: The Politics of Virtue, Care, and Equality

-Authoritarian Regimes

-African History (Post-1500)

-Urban Politics

Honorable mention: Fitness Walking (my college had a PE requirement)

/pol/ being at the center of the pedo cabal is… I hate everything

I have, for years, talked about how I spent the late aughts on 4chan, and I've been watching the worst people from there take over the world.

And.

He's.

He relaunched /pol/ after meeting with Epstein.

It's been fucking /pol/ this entire fucking time fucking fuck.

100%, way easier for people to feel better by tearing others down than by improving themselves.

Best time to shovel snow is when it is freshly fallen, it only gets suck-ier with time 📉

As a guy who grew up in upstate NY: the longer snow sits at cold-cold sub freezing temps, the worse it is to shovel. It just gets harder, denser, more compact.

The legal profession doesn’t really, actually have standards.

Common Mamdani W

The thing about ICE and DHS is that I was 28 or 29 when they were created. I remember people arguing that they would become an authoritarian tool specifically designed to terrorize Americans. They knew.

www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-camps/ty...

Holocaust historians, please correct me if I am wrong about this, but there are some HUGE echoes to the beginning of the Holocaust with the “wild camps” - the Auchwitz-style purpose built camps were a later evolution.

Imagine being so dumb as to think we can train the Gestapo to not do this

There are a lot of people who are really excited about a chance to be Mad at Will Stancil and so I think this is a good time to remind everyone that it is ok to touch grass and you should do it.

On the record about my general dislike of Stancil but his reply guys are fuckin deranged.

Yes it’s called polling

The Democrats!

Literally half the country wants to abolish ICE and the Democrats are going to make them pinky swear not to deport U.S. citizens anymore

To put all of this a bit differently, what is Kalshi but a bunch of people also trying to read polls and make a bet on the outcome, but they are probably doing so with much less robust modeling (if not just yolo-ing based on vibes?)

Idk it just seems so messy.

I think this is giving WAY too much credit to the idea of Kalshi gamblers being 150iq geniuses operating with robust modeling and a concrete strategy.

Also, the idea that a speculative market would return to some sort of perfect equilibrium would rely on bettors having perfect information, no?

Sorry, lol, came back to a bunch of notifications and responded a bit out of order 😅

And this doesn’t even get into the whole “markets are always correct because perfect allocation of resources” thing.

Again I appreciate your response and the discussion that has unfolded below, but I just think it is such a weird source to give weight to when we have abundant polling data

Become less reliable as an outcome becomes more certain - because my goal is to profit, I am unlikely to stake capital on a truly sure thing (not worth the transaction costs, the EV of a highly likely outcome is too marginal for bettors) nor am I going to stake it on a 1:100 longshot.

I appreciate the response - although I do still think the feedback loop of “use prediction markets to gauge popularity, the reporting of which will then influence prediction markets” is a pretty major issue.

The nature of betting markets (let’s be real Kalshi is just gambling) probably mean they…

Politics are weird - voters like to be on the winning team. Voters are more likely to vote/donate/volunteer/etc if they think their candidate has a real chance at winning.

I dunno, I’ve seen politicians do dumber shit with their money than that