Johannes Fischer

someone should invent a Gas Town for girls, where you can make the Claudes kiss

Bar chart titled “Who’s Really Blocking California Development?” showing the share of CEQA lawsuits by plaintiff type. HOAs and NIMBY groups account for the majority at 54%. Business and commercial plaintiffs file 20% of cases, government entities 13%, environmental groups 8%, tribal or cultural groups 4%, and labor unions 2%. The chart notes the analysis is based on 1,234 CEQA court opinions from 1973–2025 using CourtListener data, with HOAs/NIMBYs defined as homeowner associations, neighborhood groups, and ad hoc project-opposition groups.

The Abundance movement often points to environmental groups as the obstacles to building. But who actually files the lawsuits blocking projects? It’s not environmental groups. It’s been lawyered-up HOAs protecting property values all along. Regulation by litigation is the problem.

Cory this is sick!!

Even accounting for the new congressional maps, a swing like Aftyn Behn's (Trump+22 to D-8.6) would net Dems 259 seats in the midterms.

Even if the swing is *half* of tonight's, Dems win the House with 229 seats

Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

One thing I keep mulling over is the role that market share/monopoly plays here — DoorDash and Lyft have competitors but it’s not like they’re _only_ competing on price. On the one hand they can make demands, on the other hand agents might increase price-based competition. Curious for your thoughts!

wild to watch twitter melt people's brains, I say to myself, smugly, scrolling twitter (genuinely is sad to see a bunch of polling analysts get vulgar and petty the minute there's money to be made)

The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out. Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.

"When electoral gains from moderation have been exhausted—when Democrats are running moderates in every competitive district and still losing—the task isn’t to moderate harder. It’s to give voters reason to believe politics can deliver real change." data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...

Opinion | America Still Has a Political Center, and It’s the Key to Winning

nytimes editorial board dedicating itself to providing some of the dumbest ideas possible: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/o...

Chris Van Hollen Is Angry—at Trump, and at His Party’s Lame Pollsters Senator Chris Van Hollen explains why he went to El Salvador earlier this year, while the rest of the party tried to downplay immigration issues, and his decision to go to Iowa and flirt with a 2028 p...

"There’s a false choice to say we either talk about how expensive things are under Trump, but we can only talk about that and we can’t talk about these assaults on our freedoms. And for a while that was the common wisdom among pollsters," says @vanhollen.senate.gov. newrepublic.com/article/2013...

Wait, Tyler Cowen has been writing about how to find virgins since 2009 while he was a professor at George Mason University

democrats can now reach young men by telling them that trump wants to take away their naruto and their one piece

I think it's wild to have the main takeaway from 2016 being that Clinton used language that was alienating to "deplorables"

I wish Ezra had engaged with this idea during their interview, given multiple chances to

This is what politics is, so many have forgotten

WGA Statement on ABC's Decision to Pull ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ The right to speak our minds and to disagree with each other - to disturb, even - is at the very heart of what it means to be a free people. It is not to be denied. Not by violence, not by the abuse of governmental power, nor by acts of corporate cowardice. As a Guild, we stand united in opposition to anyone who uses their power and influence to silence the voices of writers, or anyone who speaks in dissent. If free speech applied only to ideas we like, we needn't have bothered to write it into the Constitution. What we have signed on to - painful as it may be at times - is the freeing agreement to disagree. Shame on those in government who forget this founding truth. As for our employers, our words have made you rich. Silencing us impoverishes the whole world. The WGA stands with Jimmy Kimmel and his writers.

The following is a statement from the WGA on ABC’s decision to pull ‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’

Good morning. Here is my reply to Matt Yglesias' "reply" to my article on moderates. This is a comprehensive accounting of my and other evidence, with some clarifications of findings and my position. I hope you will read and share.

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/data-over-...

This is my read too which is wild

OK here's the blog post.

1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates

2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's

3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects

data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...

was wondering when someone was gonna say this. ideological moderates do not have systematically higher WAR. i have a piece on this coming out tomorrow

bao wow

I genuinely cannot believe how many Democrats are spending their energy on destroying Mamdani when the GOP is trying to turn ICE into a full on secret police by drastically raising their budget

it’s not too late to endorse @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social, final results won’t be in for a while

We received our 501c3 Status! A welcome piece of good news and an important time to support our work

Some very welcome good news! There's never been a better time to support our worker-led local newsroom! 51st.news/we-received-...

anyone doing work on climate geo-engineering risk estimation and management?

i just watched a clip of stephen miller talking to hannity from a few days ago and my god is that guy a stone cold freak. like, everything about him is profoundly off-putting, like a bug in an eggar suit

if your grand approach to politics is bloodless poll-testing so that you're always aligned with wherever public opinion happens to be, you've already lost

This is correct! Here’s why & why it matters: www.bostonglobe.com/2025/05/14/b...

"hi propensity voters" are voters who demonstrate high civic engagement because when they see someone they are disproportionately likely to say hello

in this paper I will

It’s really striking how irregular the bands of mostly men conducting federal immigration enforcement are. They seem to have no particular uniform, they wear a variety of different agency initials on their tactical vests, or none at all, they’re inconsistent about displaying a badge…

mario meme with our guide on phone searches at the US border

travelling to the US soon?

link: www.wired.com/story/how-to...