Catalist

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A Comprehensive New Data Analysis Into Why Harris Lost in 2024 After every major presidential and midterm election, the Democratic data firm Catalist releases a comprehensive analysis of the composition and partisan leanings of the electorate. What distinguishes ...

Amy Walter and the team at @cookpolitical.com have more on the report here, including more data visualizations.

www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/nat...

People and organizations interested in commissioning additional research, including at the state and local level, should reach out.

catalist.us/contact-us/

Changes in campaign tactics, the media ecosystem and the political landscape all present challenges and opportunities for Democrats over the coming years, including challenging Senate maps, tight races for House control and shifting Electoral College calculus.

Demographics aren’t destiny and candidates and parties will continue to try to build winning coalitions across demographic groups and subgroups.

Campaigns use a variety of connected tactics to win, including turning out supporters and persuading swing voters. While strong partisans are also reliable voters, audiences that are on the fence about voting or on the fence about which candidates to support overlap with one another.

New registrations also declined in 2024, possibly due to lower enthusiasm as well as fewer potential new registrants being available after 2020’s record-breaking turnout.

Typically, Democrats overperform with irregular voters and rely on a wave of new voters who tilt toward them to make up for voters who drop off from previous presidential elections. That wave of rotating Democratic-leaning voters did not materialize in 2024.

We find that less frequent voters turned toward Trump in 2024, while more frequent voters stayed steady or moved slightly towards Democrats by some measures.

Turnout was almost as high as 2020’s record-breaking year. In some battleground states, turnout was even higher and we analyze national vs. battleground state data throughout the report. But turnout drops were not consistent: higher in Democratic areas and among some Democratic-leaning groups.

Our analysis covers the data based on turnout and support as well as demographics: race, education, gender, age and urbanity (population density). We also take a deep dive into how often people voted in previous elections, turnover from cycle to cycle, and new voters.

For instance, support declines among Latino voters were sharper among men and infrequent voters. They were sharper still among young men who are also infrequent voters who live in urban areas outside major battleground states.

Importantly, none of these factors contributed to Democratic losses on their own. Instead, they built on each other.

Overall, we find that the Harris / Walz ticket retained key parts of the Biden 2020 coalition, but saw turnout drops and support declines among an interconnected set of subgroups: young voters, men, voters of color, less frequent voters, urban voters, and voters outside the battleground states.

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024 | Catalist AN ANALYSIS OF THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION Introduction Catalist’s What Happened reports offer a comprehensive voter-file based view of the electorate after every major presidential and midterm ele...

We’re excited to share What Happened 2024, Catalist’s analysis of the most recent general election, based on updated state level voter files. We publish these reports to help inform public, media and operative understanding of the electorate with the best-available data.

catalist.us/whathappened...

We’ll be issuing more reports in the coming weeks, focusing on the battleground states of Arizona and Michigan.

Our original What Happened 2022 analysis has more on the electorate, including how Democrats overperformed in key battleground states despite massive midterm headwinds.

These constituency groups are a key part of winning coalitions and the focus on ongoing efforts to make the electorate representative of our country as a whole.

NEW: We have five new What Happened reports on the 2022 electorate, offering an in-depth view of the electorate among Black, Latino, AAPI, youth and women voters. catalist.us/whathappened...