Shel Winkley

Cyclist in a climate stripes jersey.

A road in the Texas Hill Country seen from a cyclist's POV.

A road in the Texas Hill Country and a geological outcrop seen from a cyclist's POV.

Back from a 105mi bike race through the TX Hill Country where the July floods caused unspeakable devastation (race fees went to flood relief). It's hard to directly attribute specific rain events to climate change, but we know that storms like these become more likely as CC worsens.
#ShowYourStripes

Looking for more information?

• Climate Shift Index: csi.climatecentral.org

• Climate Change's effect on lingering summer heat: www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...

October not really feeling like October used to around here?

That's because summer creep continues to eat into our fall months.

#bcstx now experiences the average last 90° day around 3 weeks LATER than we did back just 50-55 years ago.

Another sweaty, hot, above-average October day for #bcstx.

🌡️ Easterwood reached 92° this afternoon. A high 6° HOTTER than average for this time of the year
🔴 Human-caused climate change makes this type of late summer heat now 3x MORE likely to occur here in the Brazos Valley

Showers & storms are swirling in the northern Gulf around a low, sliding northwest into waters running 1–2°F warmer than normal for early October.

✅ Good news: hostile upper winds = no tropical development.
❌ Bad news: close enough to crank up humidity in the Brazos Valley—but not bring us rain.

Summer-like, record heat made at least TWICE more likely to occur on October 4th due to climate change.

Not to say every Gameday in early October will be this hot -- but we know 'summer creep' into the start of football season is becoming more common.

More info + data ➡️ impactsus.org/cfb/

Pope Leo hits out at critics of global warming In his first major statement on climate change, the pontiff criticises those who minimise climate change.

"God will ask us if we have cultivated and cared for the world that he created for the benefit of all and for future generations, and if we have taken care of our brothers and sisters - what will be our answer, my dear friends?"

Story from BBC ⤵️
share.google/VCtmobYtPktK...

Also...if you were hoping for some rain anytime soon?
Keep on waiting.

Reminder: October *typically* is expected to be the WETTEST month of the year for #bcstx -- clocking 4.93".

Oct 2024 produced 0" of rain.

Last above-average October rainfall was...*checks notes* 2018

Remember when October used to feel like October?

With just 0.04" of rain, #bcstx just experienced the 4th DRIEST September of record in 136 years of record keeping.

For perspective, 2024's just-shy-of-0.75" tied as the 12th DRIEST of record
#txwx

In South Texas, a town struggles for water The city of Mathis typically pumps its drinking water from Lake Corpus Christi, but worsening drought conditions are expected to plunge water levels too low to safely extract usable water.

"The situation in Texas highlights a growing problem in drought-prone parts of the country — and the world — as climate change alters precipitation patterns, intensifies drought and saps the availability of safe drinking water"

share.google/B0YjFBlBuGh0...

#Humberto strengthened 85mph in 24hrs.

The 3rd hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season...& 3rd to undergo Extreme Rapid Intensification (+58 mph in 24 hrs)

This. is. climate. change.

Unusually warm waters boosted Humberto’s strength, made 50x more likely by carbon pollution.

YouTube video by climatecentral How climate change warmed ocean waters could impact Hurricane Humberto & Imelda

#Humberto is officially a hurricane.
#Imelda is expected to form -- potentially as early as late Friday

How can warmer-than-average Atlantic temperatures impact the intensity of storms? What about the rain they bring?

Let's talk tropics ⤵️

youtube.com/shorts/qG5Jd...

📱 Come make meaningful content with us!

This gives a creative, climate-motivated creator the chance to bring science & data to life through digital storytelling.

Grow your video & editing skills while communicating climate change impacts. (Probably work in a little fun along the way, too!)

Anticrepuscular rays making for an A+ sunrise on this Thursday morning.

Tropical Storm #Humberto officially formed per NHC in "favorable environment w/ warm sea surface temperatures."

Currently, over waters ~1°F warmer than avg (50x more likely from climate change)

Next week: expected to interact with 2.5°F above avg waters (100x-300x more likely by human activities)

A Decade of Growth for U.S. Solar and Wind | Climate Central The U.S. produced record levels of solar and wind power in 2024 – part of a decade-long growth trend.

Want to learn more? See how much solar and wind are being produced in your state? 👇👇👇

#ClimateMatters

www.climatecentral.org/climate-matt...

The U.S. generated a record 756,621 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity from 🔅solar and 🍃wind in 2024...

🏡...enough to power the equivalent of more than 70 million average American homes.

This is more than 3x what was generated just a decade ago.

🤠Texas led the way in wind generation in 2024

🎧You can also snag the episode at your favorite place to put podcasts into your ears

🟢Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0wXX...
🔴Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/g...
#ClimateMatters

YouTube video by GeoTrek Making Sense of Extreme Weather: Climate Communication and Attribution with Shel Winkley

🗣️"Conversation & communication are a solution to climate change."

Big thanks to "Hurricane" Hal for letting me come chat on the GeoTrek podcast to communicate the importance of communication & the way we are putting it to work at @climatecentral.org

Check it out ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQAJ...

The leaves are trying to tell us something.

Map showing Hurricane Gabrielle’s track near Bermuda. Colored shading highlights record-warm ocean areas. Text: “Ocean warmth made at least 50x–100x more likely due to climate change.” Storm symbols mark Gabrielle’s intensification from Cat 1 to Cat 4.

Map of the Atlantic Ocean showing water temperature anomalies Sept 15–21, 2025. Large dark red area highlights record-warm waters where Hurricane Gabrielle traveled, surrounded by lighter red (above normal) and some blue (below normal) patche

Over the last 24hrs, #Gabrielle capitalized on record ocean warmth to undergo Extreme Rapid Intensification, becoming a powerful 140mph Category 4.

🌡️Sea temps 2°-3°F ABOVE the late September average
🔴Ocean heat made at least 50x-100x MORE likely by human-caused climate change

Is it the first signs of fall?
Or is it the first signs of drought?

*Whispers "it's drought..."*

YouTube video by climatecentral Climate Change is adding extra spice to your PSL as it warms the season of fall

Happy Fall, Y'all!

Climate change is putting the spice in our PSL as the season gets hotter across the entire U.S.

Let's not leaf you hanging ⤵️
youtube.com/shorts/-2SqO...

People Exposed to Climate Change: June-August 2025 | Climate Central A seasonal analysis of how climate change boosted temperatures worldwide between June and August 2025

Looking for more info?

@climatecentral.org did seasonal analysis for 940 cities across 240 countries to understand the heat felt across the globe over June, July, & August.

Read the report. See the data ⤵️
www.climatecentral.org/report/peopl...

One last note here: 📍Houston

6th warmest summer of record.
#1 Ranked summer for overnight warmth

21 days of Risky Heat (Tavg = 84°+).
All 21 have a fingerprint of & were boosted by human-caused climate change.
🧵/5

2) Flip side: early July ran COOLER-than-average.

Why? The stuck weather pattern that brought days of rain & July 4th extreme flooding.

Using the same science, we know temps like this are certainly far LESS likely in a warming world in Texas at this time of the year.🧵/4

Data for Austin & San Antonio (Central Texas & the Hill Country) stand out to me for 2 reasons:

1) Significant early-summer heat started before and then lingered into the beginning of June. Heat that would be rare or almost impossible without climate change 🧵/3

Texas cities that walked out the door to excessive heat made at least TWICE more likely by climate change:

1) Victoria: 60% of summer
2) Corpus: 40% of summer
3) El Paso: 40%
#txwx 🧵/2

Heat-trapping, carbon pollution drove excessive heat (aka more heat than even the "but it is summer" heat) across the globe over the past 3 months.

Utilizing attribution science, we can understand the fingerprint of climate change on this heat.

Let's dive into Texas 🧵