@dsmitch28.bsky.social
tax & regulatory policy @equitablegrowth. proud alum of @AspenFSP @SenSherrodBrown @GeorgetownLaw @PrincetonSPIA @TuftsUniversity. Opinions my own.
Congress had opportunity to write simpler & more equitable tax code that raised additional revenue while encouraging economic competition & innovation that boosts productivity & growth. equitablegrowth.org/research-pap...
But this law moves in the opposite direction on every front. END
10) Politically Targeted Pay-Fors
What do research universities, legal immigrants, blue-state homeowners & clean energy producers/investors/consumers have in common?
They're all seen as political enemies by those in power. So they get an economically destructive tax INCREASE.
9) Encourages Outsourcing
Despite all of Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs and trade, his signature legislative initiative undermines domestic production by loosening tax penalties for profit shifting by multinational corporations. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/20/o...
8) Missed Opportunity on Care
Instead of making the investments we know we need in paid leave, child care, and pre-K, the law tweaks a few employer tax credits and modestly and selectively increases the child tax credit, a woefully inadequate response to the care crisis.
7) Other Macroeconomic Consequences
The law increases interest rates, not just b/c of fiscal risk premium, but also b/c of price pressure from deficit-spending. Even if Trump (illegally) fires Powell, consumers pay higher prices 1 way (inflation) or another (expensive credit).
6) Budget Gimmicks
The most egregious is the use of the “current policy baseline” to fraudulently conceal $3.8 trillion in tax cut extensions. This unprecedented abuse of the budget reconciliation process erodes trust in US global leadership & heightens fiscal risk.
5) More Indefensible Tax Giveaways
The law doesnt just extend TCJA & doesnt just affect marginal rates. It gifts bunch of other handouts to the rich, including
Increase in estate tax exemption
Enhanced qualified small business stock exclusion
Extension of pass-through deduction
4) Large Tax Cuts for the Wealthy
The law uses these savings from Medicaid & SNAP for large tax cuts for the rich, making it the most regressive tax & budget bill in modern history.
The average household in top 0.1%, which makes >$2 million/year, gets a $300K+ cut in 2027.
3) Increased Hunger
22 million families will lose some or all of their SNAP benefits as a result of the cuts, which will also have negative downstream consequences on local economies across the US.
2) Backdoor Repeal of the Affordable Care Act
It's not just Medicaid that gets hit, but also enhanced premium tax credits that millions of Americans use to gain access to affordable insurance through the state marketplaces.
1) Phony Populism
Though "no tax on tips/overtime" got a lot of attention, they are tiny compared to the rest of the law.
Plus, they're overly complicated, hard to enforce, will benefit few U.S. workers, and will expire after 2028...
My terrible ten!
The 10 worst policies in the budget bill Trump signed earlier this month. 🧵
The kooky capitalization practices alone evince an unreliable negotiating partner.
08.07.2025 12:39 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
...
58% of military in CA-22 (Valadao)
223% of water transport (Staten Island ferries! largest private industry in district) in NY-11 (Malliotakis)
100% of pipeline transport in TX-15 (De La Cruz)
equitablegrowth.org/medicaid-and... h/t @robertmanduca.bsky.social @equitablegrowth.bsky.social
Even before Senate made them worse, OBBBA's Medicaid & SNAP cuts projected to be economic equivalent of losing:
97% of food manufacturing in New Jersey's 7th district (Kean)
85% of farming in NE-2 (Bacon)
69% of hospitality (largest private industry in district!) in CO-3 (Hurd)
...
Americans will pay more due to cuts to health care and other services.
Future generations will pay for the multitrillion-dollar debt increase.
And what for? Massive, expensive tax cuts to the wealthiest few.
A reminder that even the House version of the SNAP and Medicaid cuts would be the economic equivalent of losing 60% of the oil and gas extraction industry in Alaska.
equitablegrowth.org/medicaid-and...
@kylepomerleau.bsky.social & me on the many shortcomings of #OBBBA
Including the particularly egregious but little publicized expansion of qualified small business stock exclusion
Both QSBS & bill overall are:
- Not pro-growth!
- Regressive!
- Expensive!
www.concordcoalition.org/facing-the-f...
@hboushey.bsky.social & me on why we shouldnt be surprised that massive inequality-exploding tax cut wont grow economy
Pro (equitable!) growth tax policies abound, including taxing ultra-rich, but #OBBBA moves in wrong direction @equitablegrowth.bsky.social @msnbc.com www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnb...
a profile in political courage
28.06.2025 22:03 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
NEW: The Senate version of One Big Beautiful Bill is one big ugly transfer of wealth from low-income families to the rich.
Americans struggling to get by will pay more for groceries & health care so the highest income families can get big tax cuts. This isn’t shared sacrifice.
All plastics & rubber manufacturing in Ohio
All machinery manufacturing in Pennsylvania
If 80% of military bases in Missouri closed
In total: Loss of $120 billion in local income & 1.6 million local jobs
Check out the full list @equitablegrowth.bsky.social: equitablegrowth.org/medicaid-and...
Medicaid & SNAP cuts don’t just hurt beneficiaries, they hurt our local economies (h/t @robertmanduca.bsky.social):
Would be like losing 60% of oil & gas extraction industry in Alaska
All textile & furniture manufacturing in North Carolina
All logging & paper manufacturing in Maine...
"This record reveals a consistent pattern. The tax cuts did not deliver on the promises of their advocates. In fact, they often achieved exactly the opposite, worsening the debt and exacerbating income inequality.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/u...
Eye-popping analysis here!
Once Americans learn about the unprecedented regressivity in the reconciliation bill, they oppose 78-11.
Even Republicans oppose 61-23 (after initially supporting before learning the distributional effect of the tax & spending cuts).
Regressive bills BOTTOM 20% TOP 20% 2025 Current G.O.P. bill Lose Gain 2017 Obamacare repeal* Lose Gain 1997 Tax and budget acts Unclear Gain 1996 Welfare act Lose No change Progressive bills BOTTOM 20% TOP 20% 2022 Inflation Reduction Act Gain Lose 2021 Build Back Better* Gain Lose 2010 Affordable Care Act Gain Lose 1993 Clinton budget act Gain Lose 1990 H.W. Bush tax act Gain Lose Regressive, but all gain BOTTOM 20% TOP 20% 2017 First Trump tax cuts Gain Gain most 2013 Obama tax cuts Gain Gain most 2001/03 W. Bush tax cuts Gain Gain most *Not enacted
NYT found the “big beautiful bill” would be the largest transfer from the poor to the rich in a single law since at least 1990.
In fact, it would be the largest transfer *ever.*
Reagan’s low-income cuts were MUCH smaller - and his tax cuts were done separately. And before him, nothing comes close.
What these changes look like in raw dollar terms, per CBO analysis of GOP budget bill:
Typical household in bottom income decile loses ~$1,600 annually.
Typical household in richest income decile gains ~$12,000 annually.
So instead of gifting Bezos, Buffett, and other millionaires & billionaires another massive tax cut, as the reconciliation bill currently before the Senate proposes...
...Congress should listen to @wyden.senate.gov and shore up progressivity at the top! /END
Note in the graph above the 9.2% on top 400 families & a so-small-it's-hard-to-see 0.5% on Bezos & Buffett. 👀
All of these rates are considerably lower than what many non-rich, wage-earning Americans pay, especially given regressive federal payroll taxes. 5/
We know from @propublica.org @zliscow.bsky.social @gregleiserson.bsky.social @jarobb.bsky.social & others that FEDERAL INCOME tax is major driver of problem.
Especially when you (correctly!) count unrealized capital gains (appreciated assets that are big part of fortunes at the top) as income. 4/
