Francisco J. Monaldi

What's at Stake with Venezuela's Oil Industry as US Military Activities Escalate The Trump Administration has gotten increasingly aggressive in its relations with Nicholas Maduro's government in Venezuela, accumulating a historic volume of US military capability in the Caribbean a...

clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...

🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧

The US has built up a *massive* military force off Venezuela’s coast and feels poised to strike

In the latest episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, I spoke with
@fmonaldi.bsky.social to help me understand what’s happening and what’s at stake for VZ’s oil industry.

Welcome to the planet’s newest oil frontier | CNN The region is seeing a boom in fossil fuels just as the impacts of the climate crisis really bite. It’s raising thorny questions about who gets to benefit from planet-heating oil.

With my commentary

www.cnn.com/2025/11/10/c...

So, for all practical purposes, Venezuela has infinite oil, although costlier and less valuable that the ones of its peers in the Middle East. At current oil prices Venezuela could produce 5-7 times as much oil as it produces. The problem is not below ground; it is above it and it is political...

Does it matter? Not that much. Venezuela still has the largest reserves outside of the Middle East (with perhaps the exception of Canada) and most likely will never run out of oil.

So, a reasonable and conservative estimate of RESERVES would be closer to 100-110 billion barrels (around 80% extra-heavy). In fact, the leading oil consultancies use a much lower estimate for Venezuela's reserves.

But Venezuela has not audited the reserves, only the resources in place. And in reality, it only recovers about 7-8% of the extra-heavy oil on the ground, instead of the 20% recovery figure it used to claim the official figure of reserves.

The US Geological Survey estimates about 500 billion barrels of technically recoverable barrels in the Orinoco Belt (close to half of the oil resources below the ground). That number is huge, equivalent to about a third of global proven reserves.

Does Venezuela have the largest PROVEN oil reserves in the world (some 300 billion barrels), as it is generally (and officially) claimed? The short answer is NO. Venezuela has massive RESOURCES on the ground.

Venezuelan Regime Change May Open Oil's Floodgates Despite sitting atop the world’s largest oil reserves, it’s a sad truth that Venezuela doesn’t matter for the energy markets. With production languishing near its lowest in a century, American saber-r...

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

LatAm in Focus: Energy and Security Go Hand in Hand in the Caribbean Ambassador Sarah-Ann Lynch outlines Guyana’s geopolitical importance while the Baker Institute’s Francisco Monaldi analyzes the region’s energy trajectory.

🎙️ New #LatAmFocus: Energy and Security Go Hand in Hand in the Caribbean

As tensions rise in the south Caribbean, Sarah-Ann Lynch outlines Guyana’s geopolitical importance, and @fmonaldi.bsky.social of the @bakerinstitute.bsky.social analyzes the region’s energy sector.

Listen: ow.ly/PQ9F50X5FOr

news.rice.edu/news/2025/ri...

With my commentary

REACTION: Irfaan Ali Claims Reelection Victory in Guyana

americasquarterly.org/article/reac...

YouTube video by IESA School of Management Geopolítica del petróleo y el gas con el profesor Francisco Monaldi #IESAalumniHouston #Vacc #Cavex

youtu.be/XKRrDiy6jHs?...

Entrevista Dr. Francisco Monaldi, Director del Programa de Energía para Latinoamérica del Baker Institute de la Universidad de Rice.   - Energy Insights Muchas gracias por acompañarnos en esta entrevista para Energy Insights. Doctor Francisco Monaldi, director del programa...

energyinsights.mx/entrevista-d...

Two Paths to Prosperity How the social organization of Europe and China shaped their divergent economic and political trajectories over the past millennium

Two Paths to Prosperity | Princeton University Press press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

Francisco Monaldi: “En las escuelas de negocios de EE.UU. se estudia el caso YPF como un caso de corrupción para favorecer a un grupo cercano al gobierno” Vaca Muerta: ¿está en riesgo la tabla de salvación de la macro argentina? De Repsol a Néstor Kirchner y los Eskenazi, ¿intervencionismo estatal con corrupción? El especialista hizo su análisis

www.lanacion.com.ar/conversacion...

Please check out my view on the recent events in the Venezuelan oil sector for the
@The_Dialogue
's Latin America Energy Advisor.

Do not wait to read it because everything could change with a social media post! 😉

Join us for this discussion to understand the impact of U.S. measures on #Venezuela. I am excited to host this conversation with experts Drs. @fmonaldi.bsky.social @antuliorosales.bsky.social and Luisa Palacio. See details here 👇

¿Quiénes serán los afectados si Trump impone aranceles a los productos de países que le compren petróleo a Venezuela? Responde hoy en "Y esto no es todo" desde Houston un experto: @fmonaldi.bsky.social del Baker Institute de la Universidad de Rice. Óigalo aquí: www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FHh...

Trump’s Threat of ‘Secondary Tariffs’ Invents New Trade Weapon President Donald Trump appeared to invent a new weapon of economic statecraft on Monday by threatening what he dubbed “secondary tariffs” on countries that buy oil from Venezuela to choke off its oil ...

With my comments
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Javier Milei is betting big on an Argentine oil gusher Its shale fields are on track to yield 1m barrels of oil per day by 2030

With my comments @economist.com
www.economist.com/the-americas...

How Maduro Stole Venezuela's Vote by Javier Corrales and Dorothy Kronick muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

Proud to share that I have been named Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy, an endowed chair, at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. I am honored and grateful to receive this recognition.
riceconnect.rice.edu/emailviewonw...

Always a pleasure to talk about Venezuela with @IanMastersmedia.bsky.social

Cómo la economía de Venezuela pasó con Maduro del "socialismo del siglo XXI" al "capitalismo autoritario" - BBC News Mundo Nicolás Maduro se prepara para iniciar el 10 de enero su tercer período presidencial, durante el cual ha prometido consolidar el nuevo modelo económico que ha venido imponiendo en los últimos años.

www.bbc.com/mundo/articl...

How Maduro Stole Venezuela's Vote by Javier Corrales and Dorothy Kronick muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

Comment Hugo Chavez et Nicolas Maduro ont dilapidé le trésor pétrolier du Venezuela L’ENFER DE CARACAS (3/6). Le régime « bolivarien » a puisé dans les caisses du géant pétrolier PDVSA. Un terrible gâchis pour le pays, qui détient les premières réserves mondiales.

With my comments

www.lepoint.fr/monde/commen...

Trump’s Tariffs Risk Trade War with Mexico, but Natural Gas Flows Safe – Christopher Lenton / NGI - EnergiesNet Trump's Tariffs Threaten Trade War with Mexico, but Natural Gas Remains Unaffected for Now By Christopher Lenton U.S. President-elect Trump’s social media announcement that he would impose a 25% tarif...

“I think this is a ploy to negotiate something,” said @fmonaldi.bsky.social, fellow at Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies and @bakerinstmexico.bsky.social. He called the proposed #tariffs “reckless.”

energiesnet.com/trumps-tarif...