Ian Muir

Interesting development! But their CO2 equivalency calculations need some work. Even in Canada (where annual mileage is lower than the US), the average car emits around 3 tCO2 per year... so avoiding 10 MtCO2 annually is more like taking 3 million cars off the road, not 27 milliion.

Africa's solar revolution is accelerating💫🌍

The latest data shows in the last 2 quarters, many countries are importing more solar panels, including:
☀️Algeria 400MW during Q1-2025
☀️Nigeria 400MW
☀️Kenya 100MW
☀️Chad 100MW

Average Brazilian PV plant is sited much closer to the equator than in Chile, South Africa, or Australia.

As such, standalone solar systems can do more than ever before. In addition to basic loads, Even single-panel setups can power productive-use equipment like irrigation pumps, grain mills, and fridges, transforming livelihoods in underserved areas. Their potential is too significant to overlook.

In reality, the simplicity of standalone solar systems is making them increasingly cost-effective across various contexts. With no need for poles, expensive conductors, or civil works, they have benefited disproprtionately from plummeting solar PV and lithium-ion battery costs.

A $35 Billion Loan Project, Led by World Bank, Aims to Expand Electricity in Africa Some $35 billion is aimed at building small solar sites in rural areas and other improvements. The World Bank chief called the project “foundational to everything.”

Any piece shedding light on the challenges of bringing electricity to rural Africans is welcome. This one from @nytimes.com on the ‘Mission 300’ initiative offers insights but rehashes a tired trope: that standalone solar systems cannot meet the basic energy needs of households and small businesses.

The UAE has some of the highest and most consistent solar insolation globally (>90th percentile for both), so this project would not be replicable in most markets at a similar cost. But as PV and battery costs continue to fall, we’ll surely see more projects like this in other countries soon.

With CAPEX of $6bn, it might seem expensive. But given it will have zero fuel costs, I estimate it could generate electricity at $0.06/kWh at 4% cost of capital, $0.07/kWh at 6% CoC, or still $0.09 at 10% CoC.

UAE's Masdar launches facility to produce 1GW of uninterrupted renewable energy UAE state-owned renewables firm Masdar has launched a renewable energy facility that will produce 1 gigawatt of uninterrupted clean power and that is expected to cost around $6 billion, company executives said on Tuesday.

Yesterday, we learned of plans for a new 24-hour solar plant in the UAE. Featuring 5 GW of solar and 19 GWh of batteries, the facility is expected to consistently deliver 1 GW of 'baseload' power.

www.reuters.com/business/ene...

And presumably these figures miss much of the behind-the-meter (and all the standalone) solar in these markets. Has anyone analyzed PV module trade data to estimate the % of unreported solar generation in SSA? I'm taking inspiration from the recent hoopla around Pakistani PV imports and deployments.

Assessing Energy Technology Leapfrogs - Energy for Growth Hub

Enjoyed this thought-provoking piece on energy tech leapfrogging from @mthurber.bsky.social. Applying his framework to productive use tech (ecooking, emobility, solar irrigation, etc) suggests high potential albeit with some questions about avoided infrastructure.
energyforgrowth.org/article/asse...

Absolutely! This is more of a thought experiment to challenge the notion that RE can't play a significant role in countries with weaker grid infrastructure or limited capacity to integrate RE assets.

India: SECI reveals solar-plus-storage tender winners, JSW Energy appeals CERC tariff decision Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has revealed results of a reverse auction for transmission-connected solar PV paired with batteries.

One more interesting data point: new tender winners in India for solar+2-hour BESS at $41/MWh. With double the BESS, you'd presumably still be well under $70/MWh. www.energy-storage.news/india-seci-r...

Hadn't seen this; thanks for sharing! I couldn't help but zip through to their cost assumptions, specifically for BESS. $291/kWh all-in (or over 4x those bids out of China). Surely this is going to come down fast.

On average, in Sub-Saharan Africa, during the lowest-insolation months, PV systems still generate ~75% of what they do in their best months. So an approximately 33% overbuild can make them seasonally 'firm'.

With China recently getting BESS bids at an average of $66.3 per kWh deployed... one has to wonder how close we are to having nearly fully dispatchable solar+storage plants in Sub-Saharan Africa with LCOEs under $100 per MWh. Has anyone done the math?

Love this new(ish) chart from RMI's 'Powering Up the Global South' report showing that solar PV is now cheaper than coal on a CAPEX per MWh/year basis in key markets—even before accounting for fuel costs and O&M!

Not the same thing, but I just calculated that Chinese industrial power demand accounts for nearly 60% of its total demand. This translates to 3.6 MWh per capita, more than 30% higher than the US on a per capita basis (and over 400% higher on an absolute basis).

Do we have any sense of how much of that demand is derived from export-driven industries?

Trump’s Energy Pick, Chris Wright, Argues Fossil Fuels Are Virtuous Chris Wright, Donald Trump’s pick for energy secretary, says oil, gas and coal are key to solving global poverty. Some call that misleading.

Link: www.nytimes.com/2024/12/12/c...

Enjoyed today's @nytimes.com piece re the role of fossil fuels in powering growth in developing countries. In my experience, industry experts hold more nuanced views than reflected in the article—most acknowledge FFs continue to play key roles but risk soon being eclipsed by more cost-effective RE.

Any intention of incorporating country-level T&D losses at some point? Would love it if Ember power consumption figures reflected an estimate of actual consumption as opposed to just power generated.

Admittedly, the average new wind farm globally appears to be operating at closer to 35% capacity factor. Do we have a similar figure for solar?

Those wind capacity factors seem a bit high. Offshore farms can reach 40-60%, but IRENA pegs the global average for wind at ~27%, vs ~15% for solar. So wind still produces ~80% more per kW, but the gap isn’t quite as dramatic as 30-60% vs 9-30% suggests.