Maria Persson

A reminder that the announcements re the India-EU trade deal are a bit like seeing someone’s dating profile. They have chosen what to share. What really matters is what you see when they turn up in person… (the deal’s text) which may not be for ages.

New tariff just dropped.

Americans set to pay an additional 10% tax on all goods from Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland.

It starts in two weeks, rising to 25% by June.

(Aside: A trade war with one EU country is a trade war with the entire EU).

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Professor's pro-tip for anyone with college-age kids: Tell your kids go to class. It's really that simple. If you show up, you'll do okay. You don't have to be smart, you just have to be there. Maybe stay off your phones for 50 minutes. Just listen. You'll absorb something. I have data to prove it.

This looks like a must-read for diff-in-diffs folks.

www.nber.org/papers/w34550

BREAKING: This is huge news, the EU's equivalent of the 🇺🇸Supreme Court's 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges ruling.

🇪🇺Court of Justice just ruled all 🇪🇺countries must recognise same-sex marriages granted in other member states.

This effectively legalises gay marriage across 🇪🇺

Good 🧵⬇️ but I question "more radical". They are different; work differently.

1. Customs union = goods only. EU single market = goods, services (a UK strength), capital and people.

2. Customs union = a common set of tariffs, less flexibility, as ⬇️

There are other options for closer trade relations

Good thread by Aslak:

Good thread on the impact of the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA tariffs.

Come join us in Stockholm!

Oh, I see... And here I was, saying to my students just earlier today that you can't put a tariff on services trade... I guess I'll have to revisit that issue next lecture. Sigh. Teaching trade policy in 2025 is not that great unless you actually like to constantly revise your teaching materials!

And now we wait for EOs.
As a lot of people pointed out, this is not going to stop and it will be interesting to see how all the deals hold up, whether or not there will be any exemptions and how these tariffs are applied.

Never a dull moment.

European Commission seems confident:

“The United States intends to promptly ensure that the tariff rate (…) applied to originating goods of the European Union subject to Section 232 actions on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber does not exceed 15%.”

It's not entirely clear to me whether this applies to the EU or not? Technically, it's not supposed to, but maybe you've seen signs that it will apply nevertheless?

Calling all students: You could have access to a free FT subscription without even knowing it. Check here: www.ft.com/schoolsarefree

Åh, vilken praktisk tillfällighet!

❤️

Den stora kyrkflytten – Första dagen I direktsändning följer vi den världsunika flytten av Kiruna kyrka, från gamla stadskärnan till dess nya plats, fem kilometer bort. Den stora kyrkflytten tar två dagar och är en del av den omfattande ...

If you want some slow TV over the next few days, Swedish TV is live streaming the relocation of a 113 year old wooden church in Kiruna. It's being shifted to a new site 5km away.

www.svtplay.se/video/KnDgQ9...

I would like to submit a request that there be no more trade deal press conferences until a trade deal is actually done. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Reading about divided EU member state opinions on Trump's tariffs, I still think the essential problem is they think he wants a deal, whereas all evidence suggests he really wants tariffs. Only countries to have done deals just get a small reduction. Given this, what is the EU aim?

Tricky question, but @aleichthammer.bsky.social and @etiennehoera.d-64.social make some very good points in this piece. Well worth reading.

Gratulerar!

a graph of chances in tariff rates over time

Good morning. It is now 12:01 AM, which means tariffs on nearly all steel & aluminum have been raised to 50%. That includes an increase in the tariffs on steel & aluminum content in derivatives, plus a new tariff on derivatives' non-metal content based on country-level tariffs

It's kind of insane, though by this point entirely understandable, that Trump's threatened FIFTY PER CENT tariffs on steel from TOMORROW and everyone's like "I mean what can we do, it'll happen or it won't".

With the US already facing shortages of many essential medications, experts warn that Beijing could potentially exploit this reliance as leverage in an escalating trade war. cnn.it/4jBT2NA

thanks @robarmstrong.bsky.social

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👩‍🔬👨‍🔬 We investigate how parenthood affects scientific productivity and impact — and find that the impact is far from equal for mothers and fathers.

11/ If I were a betting man, I would guess that either the Trump administration never actually levies these 50 per cent tariffs and a deal emerges - or Trump does, Europe retaliates, and a while later a China-style rollback is negotiated where Trump gets none of what he wants.

That's my guess. 🤷‍♂️

The European Union, which was formed for the primary purpose of taking advantage of the United States on TRADE, has been very difficult to deal with. Their powerful Trade Barriers, Vat Taxes, ridiculous Corporate Penalties, Non-Monetary Trade Barriers, Monetary Manipulations, unfair and unjustified lawsuits against Americans Companies, and more, have led to a Trade Deficit with the U.S. of more than $250,000,000 a year, a number which is totally unacceptable. Our discussions with them are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

🚨Trump says he wants a 50% tariff on the EU starting in 9 days

Trump's Retreat Still Leaves Tariffs at 90-Year Highs China Tariffs Are Now Below "Embargo" Levels, but Overall Tariffs are at the Highest Rate Since the Great Depression

NEW from me:

Trump's 90-day pause on the China trade war still leaves tariffs at the highest level since the Great Depression—and that's before upcoming sector-specific tariffs or possible un-pausing

Trump may be easing his trade war, but he's far from ending it🧵
www.apricitas.io/p/trumps-ret...