Charles Franklin

Trump net approvals across issues, party, and time.

open.substack.com/pub/charlesa...

Trump net approvals across issues, party and time.

open.substack.com/pub/charlesa...

Gallup Nov. Trump approval: 36% approve, 60% disapprove, a 5 point drop in approval and 6 point increase in disapproval since Oct. Several points below my approval trend across all polls which puts approval at 40.5%, disapproval at 56.1%

Here is Gallup approval history since FDR

Trump's approval has declined in October and November, after holding pretty steady July-Sept. Steady decline Jan-Mar, then sharper after announcing tariffs in April, rose in May after backing off on tariffs. Then small decline in June. Current decline is across most pollsters.

Harry Enten on ACA tax credit extension, data from @MULawPoll national survey.

Trump approvals across topics. Topics ordered by average net approval (after overall).

Trump net favorability by race and ethnicity, 2022-25. Decline among Hispanic respondents in 2025 is notable after gains in 2023-24.

On X someone asked how news sources affect perceived grocery prices. Controlling for party, getting news from local tv, or ABC boosts perceived prices. Getting news from Fox, podcasts or Newsmax reduces perceived prices. Other networks or cable (CNN,MSNBC) have no effect.

UPFRONT: Partisan grocery divide Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin joins ‘UPFRONT’

More from this week’s @MULawPoll national poll on UpFront. Inflation and grocery prices.

www.wisn.com/article/upfr...

Charles Franklin on Trump's approval ratings as 2025 ends Charles Franklin on approval ratings for President Donald Trump as the midterms begin.

Wisconsin Public Television conversation about my @MULawPoll national poll this week looking to 2026 midterms.

pbswisconsin.org/news-item/ch...

UMich Survey of Consumers sees rising concern about possible job loss, especially among the young.

www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Final Nov sentiment is 51.0, a shade better than the preliminary estimate but still not far above the low of 50.0 in 2022

U Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 in preliminary November data. That is just 0.3 higher than the low point of the Biden administration, 50.0, in June 2022 at the peak of the inflation surge. Down 29.9% year-over-year. www.sca.isr.umich.edu

Dems do very well in VA. Win Gov by 14, AG by 5 (despite texting scandal), perhaps most impressive shift house of delegates from D 51-49 to D 64-36

Talk of NJ as swing state premature: Dem win Gov by nearly 13. Was supposed to be much closer

Surprise 2 PSC D wins in GA

most vote in but unofficial

No. His range has been 33% to 49% approval.

Presidential approval, 1937-present. Data from Gallup polls.

Informative map of where Obamacare/ACA enrollment grew the most from 2020-2025. From Wall Street Journal. Story, no paywall. www.wsj.com/health/healt...

See what 1041 Americans say they like & dislike about Trump and their biggest concerns. Click Shuffle Responses to see 5 at a time, page through at bottom right. Filter in the boxes, here for example Trump voters, Fox viewers who say "cost" is a concern. lubarcenter.shinyapps.io/mlspsc28-ope...

Who gets news from where and uses which social media apps? New @MULawPoll *national* survey takes a look overall and by party identification. See @jdjmke post on this at our @mulaw blog: law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/...

Maybe this explains why I confuse Spotify so much. My two top plays of the week.

New @MULawPoll *National* survey out yesterday and today. See Full results at law.marquette.edu/poll/2025/10...

Court release: law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-cont...

National politics release: law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-cont...

Next @MULawPoll Wisconsin poll will be out Oct. 29.

We have not.

Large partisan differences on the effect of tariffs on the economy, though relatively little change over time. >50% of Reps say tariffs help. Those saying hurt the economy up slightly across partisanship; help economy down a bit with independents. @MULawPoll national surveys.

Less confidence that Trump policies will decrease inflation, including among Republicans, while more now think his policies will increase inflation. Independents notably more likely to now say increase. @MULawPoll national surveys.

Three looks at how partisanship drives our perceptions of reality 1) Right direction or wrong track: huge shift 2) State of the economy: now much better for Reps, worse for Dems (real economy hasn't shifted that much) and 3) personal finances, more modest changes but still some.

Here is the Wisconsin party favorability by party ID. Don't have congressional party approval for Wisconsin.

Similar pattern and discrepancy. Dems less favorable to their party than Reps are to theirs.

Did an interview with Milwaukee CBS58 @AJBayatpour on views of parties. Reps doing better than Dems for both congressional party approval and party favorability. Key difference: Dems much less happy with their party than Reps with theirs. Disappointed Dems. National data.

Most of those Dem to Ind voters lean Dem and will vote 85% D, but not the 95% D that pure partisans do. Including leaners Reps have gained a small advantage in party balance. Poor Biden performance likely why. See how Trump does now.

The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis

See NYTimes story on Rep gains in voter registration. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/u...

Reps remain solid Rep but Dems drifting away to Ind.

My @MULawPoll asked party ID early in 2022. In polls with the same people since then we re-ask party ID. The chart shows PID in subsequent polls by the respondent's PID in 2022.