Charles Franklin

Wisconsin Assembly top races. Democrats have to run the table of competitive races to win a majority of seats.

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I had to count on my fingers, several times. The competitive Dem seat makes it confusing.

Just what Lukas said.

If the Dem loses, must win all 3 Rep seats. If Dem wins, need 2 Rep seats. Need 3 of 4 wins either way.

There are 4 top races in the Wisconsin state Senate. Democrats need 3 of the 4 to win a majority. One of the Republicans just announced his retirement.

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Because I like Ike.

Of Gallup presidential polling.

1 year of Trump 2.0
Trump's approval is bad enough. No need to exaggerate.

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With lots of “one year in” posts on Trump approval, here is a slightly different way of looking at how the public feels about him. All or nothing on liking Trump.

charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/all-or-not...

While a substantial number of members of the House of Representatives are retiring, don’t expect these retirements to produce many flipped seats or shifts in the ideological makeup of either party.

open.substack.com/pub/charlesa...

While a substantial number of members of the House of Representatives are retiring, don’t expect these retirements to produce many flipped seats or shifts in the ideological makeup of either party.

open.substack.com/pub/charlesa...

Thirty years of Wisconsin Supreme Court Elections After more than two decades of conservative majorities, liberals have been winning

After more than two decades of conservative dominance liberals have won a majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, with another seat up in April.

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On Jan. 8, 17 House Republicans voted with all Democrats to extend ACA tax credits for 3 years, easily passing the bill, though prospects in the Senate are unclear. Who defected and how do they differ from their GOP colleagues?
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Yes, that would be a good project for someone. Not my skill set but a good approach.

Really useful to have such a significant corpus of news attention qs for comparison!

Also highlights how much tariffs, DOGE, immigration and the Abrego Garcia case in particular broke through.

That is even better!

Attention to news in 2025. What we noticed and what we ignored.

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Ohh that is great! Jeff was a good friend to me and my wife, Liane Kosaki. Been a minute. Please pass on my best wishes. I love coincidences like this. Thanks for letting me know.

How family finances changed under Trump and Biden. Dig down for partisan and income differences. Beware the unhappy middle-income folks.

charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/family-fin...

Is there a new embrace of religion among the young? News reports have found examples of flourishing young congregations. But Pew national polls find stability over last 5 years and some decline among the young. Some perspective. charlesatpollsandvotes.substack.com/p/religion-a...

Midterm seat loss, 1862-2022

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Pizzeria Dolorosa in La Crosse. Amazing pizza, original toppings. Not to be missed when in the Driftless.

Trump net approval has been slipping in polling averages. This story looks at economic issues and among independents. Good use of MULawPoll, Fox & Ipsos data.

Good point.

No second acts: Repeat performances in Wisconsin elections Is the second time the charm?

Second acts in Wisconsin elections? The record is daunting.

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Trump net approvals across issues, party, and time.

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Trump net approvals across issues, party and time.

open.substack.com/pub/charlesa...

Gallup Nov. Trump approval: 36% approve, 60% disapprove, a 5 point drop in approval and 6 point increase in disapproval since Oct. Several points below my approval trend across all polls which puts approval at 40.5%, disapproval at 56.1%

Here is Gallup approval history since FDR

Trump's approval has declined in October and November, after holding pretty steady July-Sept. Steady decline Jan-Mar, then sharper after announcing tariffs in April, rose in May after backing off on tariffs. Then small decline in June. Current decline is across most pollsters.

Harry Enten on ACA tax credit extension, data from @MULawPoll national survey.