Philipp Jäger

After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act.

This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start.

Some quick thoughts:

Can anything halt the decline of German industry? Europe’s manufacturing champion is in free fall. Economists are suggesting radical steps to save what is left

for last two charts, c.f. FT-article from last November: www.ft.com/content/239e...

Taking a wider look, beyond energy-intensive manufacturing, to industrial production as a whole: again, Germany's relative performance is not looking great in EU comparison
Part of the recent worries are the falling exports and rising imports of capital goods with China.
(3/3)

Second, there's striking heterogeneity across countries. Germany is really the problem child here for many products - only on steel it's starting to look better again for Germany (2/3).

The Industrial Accelerator Act, aimed to boost energy-intensive industries and clean tech, faces another delay. Meanwhile, energy-intensive industry continues to struggle.

I looked into the data. First, overall poor performance espc. for the chemical industry - although a small recent uptick (1/3)

Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.

Tomorrow’s summit is a chance for EU leaders to stop chasing the wrong fixes — and finally sketch a response that matches the scale of Europe’s economic challenge.

Here, lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, @sandertordoir.bsky.social and I lay out what that could look like.

www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Here the annex with the factors and how they are defined (weighted average of the CO2 intensity of electricity produced from fossil fuels) (4/4)

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conten...

If anyone knows which data series and exact calculation the Commission used - do tell.

Politically, there will be high-level fights over ETS1 this year. But besides them, the climate bubble shouldn't leave the important but more obscure, technical factors like these to the lobbyist (3/4)

This "indirect emission cost" subsidy costs many billions each year, and depends heavily on the "emission intensity factor". The higher this factor for a country, the higher the maximum subsidy.

No matter what Eurostat acrobatics I try - and I have tried a bunch - I get much lower numbers. (2/4)

Beware of ‘anti-woke’ liberals: they attacked the left and helped Trump win | Jan-Werner Müller So-called ‘reactionary centrist’ pundits proclaimed that there was a global ‘vibe shift’ in favor of the right. They were wrong

"The point is not that what progressives do must never be criticized; the point is that the relentless drive to find fault with both sides equally results in a sense of (false) equivalence among those taking cues from supposedly trustworthy centrists."

Thank you to @elisabettaco.bsky.social, Alexandr Hobza, @tpellerincarlin.bsky.social & @ph-jaeg.bsky.social for speaking at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ @bst-europe.bsky.social/ @delorsberlin.bsky.social event on 'Shaping the right policies for Europe's clean tech industry' in Brussels yesterday.

You may have missed it amidst the chaos of the last few days, but there is a new high-level EU report in town: A Franco-German task force led by Jörg Kukies and Christian Noyer presented recommendations to tackle the scale-up financing gap.

Here is what it says and why you should care about it.

Europe is hollowing out its Green Deal, leaving a vacuum of political

End of year reflections on EU climate policy: it’s really not looking good for the Green Deal.
@jannikjansen.bsky.social and I wrote a short piece on why we're far from "staying the course" - and why that's a strategic mistake for Europe (1/12)
tinyurl.com/jdc-green-deal

Excellent thoughts and notes, but recall that in 2025 there is not really such a thing as a “center” in EU politics — here we are really talking about the political right rowing back on climate ambition due to fear of being eaten by the far rights.

*"continent on the planet", of course

In 2026, the political centre should again own the Green Deal and embrace it as a core strategic project. Abandoning it would leave Europe weaker economically, socially, and geopolitically, while creating a vacuum of political vision that others are ready to fill. (end)

The better political strategy is making a clear, unapologetic case for the societal and economic benefits of the green agenda.
It's not too late for such a course correction yet: (11/12)

When mainstream parties echo far-right talking points (or even vote with them) they may quiet criticism on a single file. But doing so validates the backlash story that climate action is elitist, punitive, and optional— ultimately legitimising the far right and widening its reach. (10/12)

So, why does the centre not champion the Green Deal?
The reluctance is driven, at least in part, by the fear that doing so would further fuel the far right, which has deliberately weaponised opposition to climate policy as a wedge issue. But this logic is deeply flawed: (9/12)

Third, fiscal logic: Cutting emissions and investing in adaptation now is far cheaper than the inevitable catch-up later, as climate impacts intensify. Reminder: Europe is the fastest warming planet. It's the opposite of economic prudence to ignore these mounting liabilities. (8/12)

Second, geopolitics: Delivery on climate at home is a precondition for credibility abroad. It underpins Europe’s ability to forge new partnerships, not just on climate but across trade, investment, and security cooperation (7/12)

Doubling down on the Green Deal also lowers energy costs over time and reduces exposure to imported fossil fuels, which have
repeatedly proved volatile and politically risky (6/12).

First, weakening the Green Deal doesn't save but actually undermines Europe’s competitiveness - moving away helps a handful of loud industries in the very short term, but at high costs for the rest of the economy, as well as putting the brakes on future growth sectors like clean tech. (5/12)

This roll back is sold as pragmatism, but it's a strategic mistake, even for reasons beyond climate. These benefits have often been mentioned over the last years, but don't seem to stick in the debate, so it's worth repeating them: (4/12)

To be clear: reasoned refinements to the Green Deal are not only legitimate but necessary. But that's very clearly not what the EU is doing. Instead of revisiting the policy mix with analytical rigor and nuance, there's now a broad-brush rollback, one omnibus after another. (3/12)

While the political center still professes (at least lukewarm) commitment to climate targets, the instruments meant to deliver them are being hollowed out: Carbon pricing is delayed, green standards are diluted, and investment support falls short. (2/12)

Europe is hollowing out its Green Deal, leaving a vacuum of political

End of year reflections on EU climate policy: it’s really not looking good for the Green Deal.
@jannikjansen.bsky.social and I wrote a short piece on why we're far from "staying the course" - and why that's a strategic mistake for Europe (1/12)
tinyurl.com/jdc-green-deal

Regime change instead of business as usual: A pan-European corporate law to unlock cross-border

The proposed "28th Regime" is hoped to remove bureaucratic, legal, and financial hurdles that hold back small, innovative EU companies.

However, crucial questions remain wide open. In my new policy brief, I analyse the main options and relevant trade-offs.

1/🧵

www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

The EU's critical raw materials predicament: ReSourceEU to the Rescue? The EU’s dependence on highly concentrated critical raw material (CRM) supply chains, above all on China, has emerged as a central economic security vulnerability.

1/ This year revealed how the EU's critical raw materials dependence has become an economic security vulnerability. ReSourceEU is the EU’s most serious attempt yet to remedy this. To end the year, I dive into what it does and whether it can shift the trajectory: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

Regime change instead of business as usual: A pan-European corporate law to unlock cross-border

📣 #NewPaper: In her new Policy Brief, our fellow @marleneschoerner.bsky.social discusses the proposed #28thRegime as an alternative to national legal frameworks and identifies crucial features to support innovative companies in the EU.👉 www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati... #NewPaper #EU #CorporateLaw