Michał Dubrawski (One-Armed Pundit)

Magic Hammers Wake up babe new AI model just dropped

"AI capabilities are already superhuman in many ways and continue to improve. AI doesn’t need to exhibit general intelligence or consciousness—it doesn’t have to be some kind of magical universal hammer—to be capable of dangerous behavior or to be used for dangerous ends."

The Forecaster's Bookshelf: Books About Forecasting - Part 1 Good books can boost your development as a forecaster. They expose you to diverse ideas and methods, which you can test in your forecasting practice. Then you select what works for you.

I stared a new series on my blog. If you are interested, read "The Forecaster's Bookshelf: Books About Forecasting - Part 1" open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...

UKRAINE’S KURSK OFFENSIVE Ukraine’s bold incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast two weeks ago has boosted Kyiv’s morale and changed the narrative of the war.

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman to break down Ukraine's Kursk offensive. www.powervertical.org/2024/08/22/u...

Image of flashcards made from business cards.

What to do with old business cards after a promotion or job change? I used mine to make flashcards.

Why prediction markets might not be the ultimate tool for policymakers? How to make forecasting more useful for decision and policy support? Listen to the first episode of "Talking about the future Podcast" and Robert's interview with Michael Story, director of Swift Centre for Applied Forecasting.

Early Polls and Off-Year Elections Republicans are still a mess

"Early polls tend to be a referendum on incumbents, rather than a serious choice between candidates. They allow voters to express their dissatisfaction in a way that has no real consequences."

Wherever there is a difference (positive or negative) between expectations and the outcome, there is an opportunity to learn.

I am reading "The Knowledge Manager's Handbook" by Nick Milton and Patrick Lambe, and I am learning a lot. One of the useful ideas I found there, is to treat every project, task or process, where there is a difference (positive or negative) between expectations and outcome as a learning opportunity.

I agree gaming can be useful, but it’s also important not to misunderstand what superforecasting (as it’s known) entails. It’s not about any one tool. One of the key principles of good forecasting is aggregation of multiple tools and viewpoints.

*When expert predictions fail* - a new article in *Trends in Cognitive Sciences* with Michael Varnum Cendri Hutcherson & David Mandel - a challenging and likely provocative argument. Happy to discuss osf.io/preprints/ps...

THE PUTINIST IDEOLOGY What does Vladimir Putin believe? Is there a coherent ideology driving his regime, its autocracy, and its imperial ambitions? If so, where did this ideology come from? And what does it mean for Rus…

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with Maria Snegovaya and Kathleen Smith about then new report from Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) “The Ideology of Putinism: Is It Sustainable?” Enjoy... www.powervertical.org/2023/10/05/t...

Dear Linda Yaccarino Do you really want to be associated with the most vile public outpouring of antisemitism in American history?

"Jews as rats, Jews as vermin, Jews as parasites, Jews as octopi—I tried reporting them all, but as far as Twitter’s concerned, all of that’s just fine. They cannot 'identify any violations of the Twitter Rules' in any of it."

@claireberlinski.bsky.social documents just how bad X has gotten

Fingers Crossed for a Soft Landing Do you believe in immaculate disinflation?

My latest, on why I think that if there's a recession it's probably won't be severe.

*doing this in your dream (sorry for the missing word)
Have a great day, Saloni!

Hi Saloni, if you feel good doing this in your maybe it is a good idea to give a call to your friends and say something nice to them or have a meeting with someone you haven't seen for some time and whom you miss 🙂 Also, maybe you need a hug from a friend?

PUTIN’S OTHER WARS As Ukraine continues to make incremental gains in its counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces in the east, Moscow is conducting a quieter offensive of its own in other parts of the former…

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with Jeff Mankoff of the National Defense University about Putin's ongoing efforts to establish hegemony over Georgia, Moldova, and Belarus even as his war on Ukraine falters. www.powervertical.org/2023/09/08/p...

Variables in the Ukraine War for 2024 Our view of any ongoing war is always incomplete. This is because, like all wars, there are many things about it, even in this age of social media and greater battlefield transparency, that are yet to...

Our view of any ongoing war is always incomplete. But there are certain variables which are more likely than others to have a substantial impact on the course of the war in Ukraine in 2024. My latest article explores these variables.

mickryan.substack.com/p/variables-...

Trading Places Republicans and Democrats could swap control of the House and Senate

Who will control the House and the Senate after the next US elections?

You can get insightful forecasts from reading this great new article by @deneufville.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/tellingt...

The ilustration shows a lander near thensurface of the Moon, and the substack article title "Russian Moon landing attempt - Forecasting case study & post-mortem analysis - part 1"

I just published the first part of my forecasting case study & post-mortem analysis related to the Russian Moon landing attempt.
Check out my ACTA Framework for first interactions with a new forecasting question - hope it will be useful for the fellow forecasters:
open.substack.com/pub/onearmed...

Biden's the Favorite in 2024 Republicans are a mess

My latest piece is on why Republicans probably won't be able to unseat Biden.

The Mental Map is not the Territory. What Robert describes here is important.To paraphrase Erica Thompson: the Hawkmoth Effect is based on the observation that even when the models are in some sense ‘only slightly wrong’, the divergence of the resulting forecast from reality can still be significant

Another great article from Robert de Neufville - highly recommended 👇

The Battle of Hostomel Airport: A Key Moment in Russia’s Defeat in Kyiv - War on the Rocks Editor's note: The three authors recorded a companion podcast for this article for the Russia Contingency, the War on the Rocks members-only show that

The Battle of Hostomel - a terrific early history of the Ukraine War’s initial, and crucial, early battle. From @warontherocks

The Outside View We're not exceptions to the rule that people are often wrong

"Overconfidence in our ability to project future events leads to confident predictions that humans—in spite of the fact that the global population is greater now than at any other time in history—are actually on the verge of extinction."

The ECOWAS deadline for reinstating Niger's President and restoring the constitution has now passed, without success.

As the deadline expired, Niger closed its airspace.

ECOWAS defence chiefs have drafted military intervention plans, pending final agreement on implementation and timing.

@bilyanalilly.bsky.social you might be interested in this

Three tips from this article:

How to practice nuanced thinking “This is just wrong.” How many times have you heard that phrase during a heated conversation? Such categorical statements never seem to help in coming to an agreement, or at least to create opport...

What is related to complicating the narratives is a practice of nuanced thinking. I have recently read some good articles on this topic - the first one is here:
https://nesslabs.com/nuanced-thinking-versus-polarized-thinking

What’s the question nobody is asking?
What do you and your supporters need to learn about the other side in order to understand them better?
4. Listen more, and better
5. Expose People to the Other Tribe
6. Counter Confirmation Bias (Carefully)

It includes some strategies for bringing in more nuances:
1. Amplify Contradictions
2. Widen the Lens
3. Ask Questions that Get to People’s Motivations
What is oversimplified about this issue?
How has this conflict affected your life?
What do you think the other side wants?