John Cawley

The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It’s an Ominous Sign for the Economy.

“I contacted our department and said, ‘Listen, I need to prepare you for the possibility that we may be graduating people without jobs.” The 50-year-long bull market for PhD economists is coming to an end, and it's not great news for everyone else. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...

The Int’l Health Econ Assn (IHEA) is searching for a health economics researcher to serve as its next Exec Director

healtheconomics.org/job-advertisem…

Correct link:

nabe.com/NABE/Events/...

The NABE @nabe-econ.bsky.social ky.social will be holding a webinar on the private sector job mkt for PhD economists on July 29

nabe.com/NABE/Events/Ev…

The @nytimes.com is rolling out survey results of the top 100 movies of the 21st Century. A nice break from other news. Hard to limit one’s ballot to just 10 but here are my votes (I weighted re-watchability heavily).

#ASHEcon2025 This week, on many occasions, I heard that this conference is the funnest, most constructive, & kindest in econ. That’s legacy of leadership, a different vision, & values which include diversity. Proud to be part of! @ashecon.bsky.social @davidslusky.bsky.social @johncawley.bsky.social

Congrats to Yulya Truskinovsky @truskinovsky.bsky.social of @maxwellsu.bsky.social for her AJHE award at ASHEcon! #ASHEcon2025

Very fun to get together with the @maxwellsu.bsky.social @syracuseuniversity.bsky.social folks at the opening reception for @ashecon.bsky.social #ashecon2025 !

I've attended this event in the past and it's absolutely fantastic! Not to mention Galway is an incredibly fun city to visit. Highly recommend!

Info on past conferences in this series is available here:
blogs.cornell.edu/ireland-mast...

Early career researchers are especially encouraged to attend.

The conference consists of overviews of major research areas by top experts in those fields plus professional development sessions.

Faculty include: @michelebelot.bsky.social @bradfowd1.bsky.social , R Conti, E Doherty, D Grabowski, @johnmullahy.bsky.social @justinsydnor.bsky.social , R Thornton

The 5th Ireland Masterclass in Health Economics will take place at @uniofgalway.bsky.social in Galway, Ireland, March 18-20, 2026. For info and to register, visit: blogs.cornell.edu/ireland-mast...

Cc: #Econsky @ashecon.bsky.social @healtheconall.bsky.social

Mean Reversion in Randomized Controlled Trials: Implications for Program Targeting and Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

Program eligibility can trigger an Ashenfelter Dip, with outcomes reverting to the mean even in the absence of an intervention. Predicting "Always Improvers" may enhance targeting, from Marcella Alsan, @cawley_john, Joseph J. Doyle Jr., and @nickskelley_ https://www.nber.org/papers/w33369

Mean Reversion in RCTs: It may matter for targeting…

Post by @berkozler12.bsky.social "Mean Reversion in RCTs" on a very interesting paper by @marcellaalsan.bsky.social @johncawley.bsky.social Joseph J. Doyle Jr. & Nicholas Skelley.

blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...

#MeanReversion #RCTs #heterogeneity #targeting

Does bad press hurt business? Our study finds no detectable effect of the Jared Fogle scandal on Subway patronage, challenging assumptions about the role of repugnance in consumer behavior. Consumers may separate a firm's products from its public symbols.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Historically, these # increase by about 10% by the end of Dec. Full memo is available on the website of the AEA cttee on the job mkt:

www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/co...

That website also has many other resources for job candidates. 8/8

Could these declines be due to employers shifting their listings away from JOE and towards some other platform? It doesn't look like it; the # of jobs listed on EconJobMarket has also declined 2022 to 2023 to 2024:

econjobmarket.org/marketState/...

7/8

The # of non-academic jobs (in US or elsewhere) listed on JOE is up 12.3% from this time last year, but down 22.2% from 2022 and down 21.5 from 2021. 6/8

The # of full-time academic jobs outside the US that are listed on JOE is also down - down 11.4% from this point last year, down 21.9% from 2022, and down 20.0% from 2021. 5/8

In contrast to the decline in full-time academic jobs, there is a slight increase in part-time/visiting/adjunct positions in the US, which is consistent with a broader trend in US academia documented by the AAUP.
4/8

Looking at specific categories, the # of full-time academic jobs in the US listed on JOE is down 9.1% from this point last year, and down 30.7% from 2022 and down 13.7% from 2021. 3/8

As of 2024-12-01, the # of total jobs listed on JOE is down 4.9% from this point last year, down 25.1% from 2022, and down 15.7% from 2021. 2/8

From our AEA cttee on the job market, here's the December update on the status of the job mkt for PhD economists of the 2024-25 cycle.
A thread with graphs follows...

#EconJobMarket
#EconSky
@aeainformation.bsky.social

@aeacswep.bsky.social

@joelistings.bsky.social

1/9

2/3// There are 5 articles: @johncawley.bsky.social & Sammy Gold quantify market changes, @anne-m-burton.bsky.social provides advice as a JMC, @mikekofoed.bsky.social as a search chair, @sebastiantt.bsky.social holistically, & @toddyarbrough.bsky.social discusses the rise of teaching specialists.

Full memo is available on the website of the AEA cttee on the job mkt: aeaweb.org/about-aea/co...
That website also has many other resources for job candidates. 9/9

Historically, about 30% of all jobs that will be listed between late summer and the end of the calendar year will be listed in Nov (mostly) & Dec, so there is still time for things to improve. 8/9

Could these declines be due to employers shifting their listings away from JOE and towards some other platform? It doesn't look like it; the # of jobs listed on
EconJobMarket has also declined 2022 to 2023 to 2024: econjobmarket.org/marketState/... 7/9

The # of non-academic jobs (in US or elsewhere) listed on JOE is up 7.1% from this time last year, but down 20.7% from 2022 and down 13.4% from 2021. 6/9

The # of full-time academic jobs outside the US that are listed on JOE is also down - down 22.3% from this point last year, down 28.1% from 2022, and down 23.8% from 2021. 5/9

In contrast to the decline in full-time academic jobs, there is an increase in part-time/visiting/adjunct positions in the US, which is consistent with a broader trend in US academia documented by the AAUP. 4/9