Inder Majumdar

4 yrs ago today, a family member managed a truly spectacular own goal, splintered his domestic bliss, & in the process, united the world for a day.

On popular request, I shall now recreate the livetweet thread from that day

So gather around children, for this is the tale of The Rice Truck Saga

Would such a bet pay out with a negative probability? 😏

Jokes aside, there’s an active market for freight space traded by commodity firms. Surely a bet could be constructed through trading O&G/commodity securities as firms experience higher inventory carry costs (due to increased storage demand)

Bringing you the latest in “preferences over attributes aren’t always convex…”

Who usually selects into the market for political betting? Could totally be wrong, but I’d be surprised if that selection is an unbiased sample of the larger population. Perhaps those betting have already priced a cut into their expectations?

Ok Mr. Bellman, do you have a convex set though 👀

I’m having a much better time on here than I did on Twitter (or “X”). The differences are very noticeable! I hope more of Econ Twitter moves here…