Ethan Struby

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Liberty Street Economics Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through No...

Here’s the piece the White House is threatening NY Fed economists over in case you wanna read it:
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...

Real insane part of this clip is Hassett saying in the beginning that NY Fed researchers “should be disciplined” for…writing an economics paper that comes to a conclusion the president dislikes? A conclusion that matches the vast majority of economic evidence on tariffs? Nuts

bsky.app/profile/wari...

Elon Musk was babbling about how nobody ever died for their multi-cultural economic zone--but that's exactly what Thomas Paine proposed in Common Sense, and a lot of people took him up on that.

be free, my orange round friend!

i gently point out that WaMu has an incentive to say scary things about how people aren't saving for retirement, a-la lending tree and living paycheck-to-paycheck ;)

"mainstream media is suppressing information that's only on social media" the information on social media:

Two ‘Mats nominations:
“Jesus rides beside me
He never buys any smokes”
And
“You’re like a picture on a fridge that’s never stocked with food
Used to live at home, now you stay at the house”

Paul Westerberg really can turn a phrase.
(See also: David Berman, John Darnielle)

Elon Musk is wrong about pluralism

i’ll end this little brainstorm by just asking what it is, exactly, that the MAGA right likes about the United States, since it explicitly rejects those things that make this nation distinctive — its pluralism, its revolutionary heritage and egalitarian aspirations, and its republican institutions

related to the view among the professional commentariat that only students at ivys and boutique liberal arts colleges actually matter

HAVE YOU CONSIDERED A WELL SEASONED CAST IRO —*I am immediately swarmed by bees and carried away*

that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion --

The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract.

We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.

Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

on this auspicious occasion of my half birthday, worth revisiting the gettysburg address:

yeah, that's the part where I think I'm projecting! living in a small city, pizza delivery is our once-every-couple-of-weeks escape valve for feeding the kids/us.

it's so hard to think about this without projecting! I just really feel like ordering pizza is much more common than "never" or "once every couple of years" or whatever

I am somewhat incredulous that 48% of Americans never even order a pizza (or maybe people carve that out as different than "having a meal delivered" in their heads)

"As it is the power of exchanging that gives occasion to the division of labour, so the extent of this division must always be limited by the extent of that power, or, in other words, by the extent of the market."

sort of unrelated to this point, though not entirely: the fact that there's such a thing as professors of rare moths etc is one of humanity's crowning achievements to date and this is what the right wants to take away from you

Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? - Liberty Street Economics Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through No...

NY Fed: 90% of the 2025 tariffs is falling on US consumers.

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-...

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

I'm pretty good at operating tiny buttons in response to predetermined environmental stimuli, in case any scientists out there are looking to hand out small cheese rewards for that

CBO Boosts US Deficit Call by $1.4 Trillion on Trump Policies The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday warned yet again that the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path, jacking up its estimate of deficits for the coming decade by $1.4 trillion thanks in part ...

".. The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday warned yet again that the US is on an unsustainable fiscal path, jacking up its estimate of deficits for the coming decade by $1.4 trillion thanks in part to .. Trump’s 2025 tax law and immigration policies."

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...