Ethan Struby

Why the B.L.S. Regularly Revises Jobs Data

Data revisions are a normal, necessary part of trying to measure a $30 trillion economy in real time. They can also be jarring, especially for people who don't obsessively scrutinize every jobs report.
So I dug into the how and why of revisions. A few big takeaways:
#EconSky

aside from econ posting: we're starting to get various missives about my oldest kiddo starting kindergarten and that's impossible because she was just born and is a little baby still

This is a really nice summary of why the revisions happened and also what they tell us about the source of a slowing labor market.

For The Hill, I contributed a commentary about the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer last week: why the pretext was flimsy and why it’s unlikely to benefit the economy or even President Trump.

thehill.com/opinion/fina...

For The Hill, I contributed a commentary about the firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer last week: why the pretext was flimsy and why it’s unlikely to benefit the economy or even President Trump.

thehill.com/opinion/fina...

Inglorious bastards 3 dot jpeg

when someone I thought was normal says "seed oil"

lived every economist's dream today (was randomly selected for the american community survey)

It's important to note here that we're not just talking about faculty & university staff. 100s of U.S. colleges are in towns or small cities where they form the major industry & lifeblood of the community. Loss of students -> loss of rent $, restaurant $, bars, bookstores, gaming stores...

Fall 2025 Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland will host the Fall 2025 Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting on November 13-14, 2025. All conference activities will take place at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland...

reminder that midwest macro's submission deadline is coming up!

www.clevelandfed.org/events/2025/...

Screenshot from a Spanish Duolingo lesson: Debes leer más sobre economía. You should read about economics more.

Screenshot from a Spanish Duolingo lesson Este mes espero que leas sobre economía This month I hope you read about economics

Screenshot from a Spanish Duolingo lesson: Tus padres esperan que estudies economia. Your parents hope that you study economics.

Duolingo is giving me some useful vocabulary this week

take that Andrew Gelman

*extremely linkedin voice* What can we learn from Andrea’s success?
🧠 you always have to be looking for opportunities! Don’t assume the thing you’re working on now is what you’ll be doing forever

🧠 students aren’t your customers: they’re your inputs

Boooooooo

hi rafe!

In the cheap fun category, we actually have an independent source of data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has data on payroll taxes paid by month. apps.bea.gov/iTable/?reqi...

A backpack with a stock image of a horse, the same as used by the horse_ebooks account on twitter

Every so often I run into this old friend at the library

Between first and second. And when I didn’t the most recent datapoint wasn’t in there yet, so I added that.

I’m doing eyeball nonparametrics 😂

combined graph of size of revision and 12 month moving average of revisions. The average revision is about 5.4 thousand.

I realize the size of the revision was not really the point with this firing, but taking that pretext seriously: the revision to the June data was large, but not exceptionally so. Recent revisions have been negative on average, but that's not remarkable in the time series either.

Apparently on JSTOR! Nice. Thanks!

That’s fascinating. Do you have a link to more about this?

my wife just said "the larry summers of our discontent" and i had to sit down for a minute

Everyone who helps the creation of meaningful accurate data for the good of the public: I admire your service and appreciate you
❤️🧡🤍🩷❤️

ofc I had never heard of smiling friends and was only at that panel to snag a seat for king of the hill so maybe I AM old

When I was at Comic-Con, I was at a panel about Smiling Friends. one of the creators mentioned Home Movies as an inspiration and my friend and I cheered and like…no reaction from anyone else. I felt old.

:(

Eighty years ago today, Congress approved US membership in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (aka the World Bank).

Paul de Grauwe had a couple of papers like this about 15 years back (and has kept up with it a bit). A little more reduced form than this, though (I really need to read it)

Huh.

Just autoreplying whenever someone says “free lunch” with “there’s no such thing as a free lunch”

I’m very popular