56 million years ago, the Earth suddenly heated up – and many plants stopped working properly It could be a sign of what’s to come.

When global temperatures shot up by ~6°C about 56 million years ago, plants were unable to thrive

The reduced ability of vegetation & soils to capture & store carbon may have kept temperatures elevated for >100,000 years

Today Earth is warming ~10 times faster than it did 56 million years ago

Amplification of Northern Hemisphere winter stationary waves in a warming world - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Amplification of Northern Hemisphere winter stationary waves in a warming world

SIC sea ice cover

"Notably, SST’s relative contribution increased markedly with temperature rise, while SIC’s contribution remained modest, about 20% of SST forcing up to a 2° increase. Beyond this point, SST forcing becomes increasingly dominant, further diminishing SIC’s relative influence."

Wintertime ocean–atmosphere interaction processes associated with the SST variability in the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone - Climate Dynamics Recent research indicates that the midlatitude oceanic frontal zones are the key regions of ocean–atmosphere interaction. The thermal condition of midlatitude ocean in frontal zones can affect the atm...

Intensifying ocean frontal systems and large scale MHWs start now to control atmospheric circulation

Here two studies on the topic

#Earth

Really wonder in how far global warming could lead to more earthquakes and eruptions...

Guess, if the mass loss of the ice shields speeds up things could get interesting...

A theory worth to look into? One question that is at the forefront of Earth system science is in how far high sea surface temperature anomalies over large ocean areas…

A small piece on one of the main questions of contemporary Earth system science and a study from 2001:

In how far can large areas of extreme sea surface temperature anomalies couple with the atmosphere in such a way that self reinforcing and self stabilizing characteristics emerge?

#climate

Trends in Arctic Summer Cloud Variability from 2000 to 2022 and the Potential Causes Clouds reflect incoming sunlight back to space thereby they cool the planet. At the same time they reflect longwave radiation back to the…

New numbers on the cloud feedback in the Arctic and changes in their properties

#climate #earth

Recent Southern Ocean warming and sea ice declines around Antarctica comes with a cloud feedback As much as I criticize models I love them as they teach us so much on how the climate system operates.

The cloud feedback is serious - warmer sea surface temperatures evaporate clouds which then leads to higher rates of ocean heat uptake, faster upper ocean stratification all feeding back on SSTs

The article is a short on models ability on the Southern Ocean clouds feedback which is a success story

In a warmer climate teleconnections strengthens with distant regions triggering regional extremes Here an example of how high SSTs off Antarctica triggered a chain reaction in the atmosphere all the way to China causing the most extreme…

The system gets more interconnected while ever more extreme events reaching new magnitudes enable in neighboring to distant places other even more extreme events...

#climate #Earth

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The economic commitment of climate change - Nature Analysis of projected sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation show an income reduction of 19% of the world economy within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices.

This happens if you point out reality...

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The economic commitment of climate change - Nature Analysis of projected sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation show an income reduction of 19% of the world economy within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices.

Wrong result...

Sadly, it will likely still be an underestimation...

Seems like the CIMP model community is reluctant to implement recent assessments of feedback strength like permafrost emissions, carbon sink changes, or geologic methane while they advocate to update the models ever faster accordingly to real world developments e.g. in SST, SAT or sea ice...

YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative Permafrost Thaw is Warming the Global Climate and Impacts Communities, Health, and Oceans

Actually i did a mistake the numbers I wrote had been the remaining budget -

In a high emission scenario its about 600 Gt CO2e in a high mitigation scenario its some 200 Gt CO2e

Guess 2°C is somewhere in between...

Here where she say it: youtu.be/0uAcPf6-9-Q?...

YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative Permafrost Thaw is Warming the Global Climate and Impacts Communities, Health, and Oceans

Just this presentation on permafrost

They calculate some 250 Gt CO2e till 2100 in a 2°C warming scenario

And this is just ONE discussed feedback - that's about 3 Gt per year till 2100 with higher rates to the end

Just these numbers that are not included show that we are close to a runway warming

IF and that's a big IF the methane (permafrost) feedback won't be too large - recent estimates point to runway global warming

Actually, Earth's imbalance would need centuries to equilibrate - ocean warming would not stop for a long time

Just the surface warming would stop after a while if GHGs would remain at zero

Current ocean heat uptake rates are just too high!

Something like that - we reach zero emissions and then full stop is utter nonsense...

At least a decade, more likely two, and they means easily 0.5°C...

current warming rates would persist the first years

How?

100% one more warming jump in the pipeline after full stop today!

goes back and forth :D

They play the game to stay in the game

It's one of the main control mechanisms

Fun fact: all who want to stay in the spotlight have to comply to the rules

It's not by chance that some climate scientists are the main voices of climate science with few exceptions like Rockström who says it out loud

As this reality is not visible in models leaving all non-quantifiable feedbacks out of the equation the Earth system will make the point that all these goals and emission scenarios are pure nonsense and we enter just now extinction territory...

All the former means that we could already be in so much trouble that humanity will have with all we've got to reduce GHG levels - times for emission reductions preventing worst cast are already past if recent findings and developments are taken seriously....

To stay in reality the already high GHG levels lead to a higher uptake rate by the oceans - terrestrial carbon sink is already full on track turning into a source - 2024 we came close while ocean uptake rate could also be hitting a plateau or even declining - all open now

This leads to our new climate reality:we have already far too much GHGs in the atmosphere now triggering a runaway warming if recent field data is taken seriously

A look in the past tells us the problem: with GHG levels increasing at least ten times slower the system had still be warming

1 Gt C...

If we include reality with CO2 levels breaching old max values by one third in 2024 while OHU is at insane levels there is no way that global warming will stay below 2°C doesn't matter how fast we reduce our emissions

This then means that even with zero emissions which are technically far from possible GHG levels will decline very slowly if at all - geologic methane feedback and ice shield past their tipping point could be enough

So the first year's further warming will happen and this is the time period most important for us.

If warming continues breaching 2°C - one more warming jump needed - other feedbacks will strengthen which can't be modelled correctly - methane feedback, C sinks turning into sources, clouds, sea ice

While OHU continues at max levels the effect of GHG declines is at first marginal and strengthens over time

So GHG declines need time to overcome the warming effect of oceans continuing to accumulate massive amounts of heat declining with time

Here exist a fun fact in the discussion:

IPCC warming in the pipeline model experiments came to zero warming using two simple tricks:

Decline of GHG levels will counter the warming effect of oceans continuing to warm

It's factual pure model non-sense!

Why?

They negate the oceans...

The problem is simple: temperature jumps are driven by ocean heat uptake being partly released to the atmosphere

So if we stop today's emissions to zero tomorrow OHU will give a fuck and continue at nuts levels.

Additionally, GHG forcing needs some 10 years to realize.