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@umsonst.bsky.social

Earth-System Nerd

1,081 Followers  |  41 Following  |  11,218 Posts  |  Joined: 29.10.2023  |  1.7872

Latest posts by umsonst.bsky.social on Bluesky

"Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00828-6#Fig3

"Anthropogenic forcing intensified internally driven concurrent heatwaves in August 2022 across the Northern Hemisphere"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00828-6#Fig3

Ok what can I do, now the last one for the Western European shit show summer heatwave complex - sorry becoming cynic as I put it the first time together...

They have no idea of what is coming at them...

This complex can massively further intensify!

14.10.2025 12:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
"Possible influence of the warm pool ITCZ on compound climate extremes during the boreal summer"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac30f8

"Possible influence of the warm pool ITCZ on compound climate extremes during the boreal summer"; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac30f8

Ok a last one that also nicely Illustrate that this shit is just starting! At 2Β°C heatwaves will also become in Europe insane!

The diabatic component from intensifying low pressure systems I fear most!

Possible influence of the warm pool ITCZ on compound climate extremes during the boreal summer

14.10.2025 12:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate Abstract. In recent decades Europe has experienced severe droughts and heatwaves. Notably, precipitation in central Europe exhibited strong dry anomalies during the summers of 2003, 2018, and 2022. Th...

And the whole shit show then mutual amplifies with soil moisture deficits:

"Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate"; nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/...

14.10.2025 12:01 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Resonant Waves Play an Important Role in the Increasing Heat Waves in Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes Under Global Warming The influence of resonant waves on heat extremes in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer is increasing, especially in Eurasi The occurrence of resonant waves is closely related to double j...

This one is also highly important - subtropical Jet/tropical convection/or Arctic warming disturbing the mid-latitude jet:

"Resonant Waves Play an Important Role in the Increasing Heat Waves in Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitudes Under Global Warming"; agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

14.10.2025 12:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Client Challenge

Sorry I'm on it what can I do, now I want to give a complete picture :D :D :D

"Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...

14.10.2025 11:56 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Client Challenge

And this one also part of the reason or complex:

Twentieth-century Azores High expansion unprecedented in the past 1,200 years"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...

14.10.2025 11:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Midlatitude Oceanic Fronts Strengthen the Hydrological Cycle Between Cyclones and Anticyclones Cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions to air-sea heat and moisture exchange are quantified around midlatitude oceanic frontal zones Oceanic frontal zones enhance surface turbulent heat fluxes w...

This one is also highly important as the Gulf stream front is intensifying becoming a birth place for cyclones and/or supercharges them, which then intensify blocking (Azores high), and can reinforce on their way north/east the West Europe heatwaves.

14.10.2025 11:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

This one is also important - how low pressure systems e.g. over the NA sustain ridge blocks which are the main driver of western European heatwaves:

"Blocking diversity causes distinct roles of diabatic heating in the Northern Hemisphere";

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

14.10.2025 11:50 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Summer Deep Depressions Increase Over the Eastern North Atlantic Deep depression occurrences have significantly increased over the eastern side, and decreased over the western side of the North Atlantic Deep depressions are linked to high surface temperature p...

Over western Europe circulation changes are discussed as the main driver (duration) for these exceptional heatwaves which can't be simulated by models

This study seems highly relevant as it describes the possibility of Atlantic cyclones not only to pull in hot air, but also to provide hot upper air

14.10.2025 11:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Client Challenge

"Decreasing aerosols increase the European summer diurnal temperature range"

diurnal temperature range (DTR)

Following a decrease from the 1940s, since the 1980s the European DTR has increased by about 0.5K due to a reduction in European aerosol emissions leading to cooler nights relative to days

14.10.2025 11:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The indirect aerosol effect over Europe In order to assess the influence of anthropogenic emissions on cloud albedo over Europe a reprocessed set of satellite measurements from 1985 to 1999 was investigated. Special emphasis was given to t...

Eastern Europe had been one of the few occasions where emission reductions happened so sudden that the effect could be nicely measured:

Germany, the Czech Republic, and Poland:

"Twomey effect a change in radiative forcing of
about 1.5 W/m 2 from the late 80s to the late 90s."

14.10.2025 11:36 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

WOW and WTF!

14.10.2025 07:43 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Study Reveals 'Alarming' Rise of Superbugs in Newborn Babies Humanity's war against drug-resistant microbes is not going very well.

Microbial resistance is a mighty oh fucker!

"According to a new study, these so-called superbugs can also be alarmingly prevalent in newborn babies, to the point that frontline treatments for sepsis are no longer effective against the majority of bacterial infections."

14.10.2025 07:31 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Epstein shows it all: a pedophile ring for the ultra rich is ok!

Bet his service still exist as billions can be made...

Gets ever more disgusting!

14.10.2025 07:12 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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1 in 6 infections now resistant to antibiotics Resistance to commonly used drugs rose over 40 percent in five years, a WHO report found.

Another milestone reached for humanity - hurray!

1 in 6 infections now resistant to antibiotics

14.10.2025 07:06 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
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Companies are blaming AI for layoffs β€” but the real reason is fear of making the wrong move, a workplace guru says A Cambridge professor said companies aren't cutting jobs because of AI β€” but because they're too afraid to make big HR decisions amid uncertainty.

The AI fantasy picture get more clear:

"while firms, especially in tech and professional services, are pointing to generative AI as the reason for a recent spate of job cuts, the real driver is fear of making the wrong move"

14.10.2025 07:00 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Forest Declaration Assessment 2025 - Forest Declaration Assessment Global forests are still in crisis is not the headline we wanted to report this year. Deforestation remains stubbornly high, with little progress to show for the last decade or more of pledges.

Who needs a liveable planet anyway if we have space stations for the super rich?

"Financial flows are still grossly misaligned with forest goals, with harmful subsidies outweighing green subsidies by over 200:1."

14.10.2025 06:50 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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β€˜It’s a road to destruction’: climate defenders facing surge in reprisals, says UN expert Mary Lawlor, UN special rapporteur for human rights defenders, accuses US, UK and other governments of paying lip service to climate goals while criminalizing activists

What most people do not understand stand: states sole purpose was, is, and will be to serve a small elite interests!

"I think states are behaving in a criminal fashion,”

They are now killing humanity...

14.10.2025 06:39 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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2023 and 2024 a striking example of a declining heat uptake efficiency in the oceans leading to oceans accumulating heat at shallower depths (In 2025 the signal will weaken as El Nino ended, but… | J... 2023 and 2024 a striking example of a declining heat uptake efficiency in the oceans leading to oceans accumulating heat at shallower depths (In 2025 the signal will weaken as El Nino ended, but stil...

Some numbers on what has happened in 2023/24 in terms of ocean heat uptake and lots of interesting and important graphs...

#climate #ocean #Earth #uâÀü1OHU

13.10.2025 17:34 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The problem is that the tipping point of Earth can't be seen if only some iconic systems are tracked, but arises out of the systems operating from the local to the planetary level undergoing regime shifts which gives rise to the emergent tipping point of Earth

Just one more temperature jump to go

13.10.2025 10:39 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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AI Promises Productivity. It's Delivering β€˜Workslop’ Most of us have encountered β€œAI slop,” the deluge of low-quality content produced by generative artificial intelligence tools that has inundated the internet. But is this computer-made hogwash taking ...


Fiction meats reality:

"Markets were rattled in August after researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said that 95% of firms surveyed have not seen returns on investments into generative AI."

They will improve yes, but by how much?

13.10.2025 09:15 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1
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Planet’s first catastrophic climate tipping point reached, report says, with coral reefs facing β€˜widespread dieback’ Unless global heating is reduced to 1.2C β€˜as fast as possible’, warm water coral reefs will not remain β€˜at any meaningful scale’, a report by 160 scientists from 23 countries warns

Did not post much the last years on this topic, as it had been clear since many years that we lost the coral reefs...

Another important step towards a neurotoxic ocean...

13.10.2025 09:04 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Two developments that Arctic sea ice should go soon into another round of decline... Across the Arctic Ocean there exist a halocline. The upper water column in the AO is stratified by differences in…... Two developments that Arctic sea ice should go soon into another round of decline... Across the Arctic Ocean there exist a halocline. The upper water column in the AO is stratified by differences in ...

The Halocline of the Arctic ocean is weakening and moving closer to the surface, while surface currents intensify, while eddies in the Arctic Ocean are predicted to strengthen mixing more warm Atlantic water to the surface melting the sea ice.

#climate #Arctic #Earth

12.10.2025 18:25 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 13    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1
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Maritime Stratocumulus Wolken verschwinden, das ist schlecht, denn sie wirken kΓΌhlend. Ist der Ozean wΓ€rmer lΓΆsen sich die Wolken weiter auf und der Ozean erwΓ€rmt sich. Eine gefΓ€hrliche Kettenreaktion, die sich global auswirkt.

Details im Video. #globaleErhitzung #Klimakatastrophe

11.10.2025 08:03 β€” πŸ‘ 791    πŸ” 349    πŸ’¬ 11    πŸ“Œ 12
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The plastic inside us: how microplastics may be reshaping our bodies and minds The particles are in our blood, brains and guts – and scientists are only beginning to learn what they do

Just microplastics on track to fuck us!

It also induces behavioral changes we really do not need if we want to save humanity from self destruction...

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

12.10.2025 13:28 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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A tangled web of deals stokes AI bubble fears in Silicon Valley Some are worried that the rapid rise in the value of AI tech companies may be a bubble waiting to burst.

Best to let capitalism defeat itself :D

Just the structure of LLMs told us that they were not ready to do the jobs...

As an auxiliary yes but beyond taking full control of every task utter nonsense...

Currently, they try to correct the flaw in architecture with hardware would be my guess...

12.10.2025 13:20 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Atmospheric Methane: Comparison Between Methane's Record in 2006–2022 and During Glacial Terminations The rapid growth in the atmospheric methane burden that began in late 2006 is very different from methane's past observational record Recent studies point to strongly increased emissions from wet...

Just for the record:

"[...] methane's recent growth and isotopic shift may indicate a large-scale reorganization of the natural climate and biosphere is under way."

Good in the bad: the cloud feedback and higher amounts of water vapor could have enhanced CH4 oxidation in the atmosphere in 2023/24

11.10.2025 18:20 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes | Jan Umsonst How equilibrium climate sensitivity experiments of an instant doubling of COβ‚‚ were conducted via model experiments shocks me all the time An instant doubling of COβ‚‚ would make the whole system go pop...

A short - 1 min read:

"How biased models results cuddled us into extinction - sorry for being polemic!"

#CMIP #CIMP5 #CIMP6 #EAR5 #IPCC #climate #earth

11.10.2025 10:30 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The importance of stratocumulus clouds for projected warming patterns and circulation changes | Jan Umsonst How equilibrium climate sensitivity experiments of an instant doubling of COβ‚‚ were conducted via model experiments shocks me all the time An instant doubling of COβ‚‚ would make the whole system go pop...

Wrote a short on (1 min) it as it is just nuts what they did - its not only clouds:

"How biased models results cuddled us into extinction - sorry for being polemic!"

www.linkedin.com/posts/jan-um...

11.10.2025 10:28 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Just to think a second that you can do warming model experiments without tying clouds to circulation and surface temperature patterns to at least try to simulate their reaction while pretending that we can simulate the warming reaction is beyond me

We have a climate science model bias - a big one!

11.10.2025 09:39 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

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