Point of no return: a hellish ‘hothouse Earth’ getting closer, scientists say Continued global heating could set irreversible course by triggering climate tipping points, but most people unaware

That we are in the process to trigger a runaway warming into a hot house is entering slowly mainstream

"The world is closer than thought to a “point of no return” after which runaway global heating cannot be stopped, scientists have said"

Only the full potential of humanity will be able to stop it

Point of no return: a hellish ‘hothouse Earth’ getting closer, scientists say Continued global heating could set irreversible course by triggering climate tipping points, but most people unaware

Slowly I get mainstream:

"The world is closer than thought to a “point of no return” after which runaway global heating cannot be stopped, scientists have said"

Only the full potential of humanity will be able to stop it

So many feedback's now starting to operate

The ocean is the worst

#climate

A short on the main principle behind the recent intensification of extremes The main driver behind intensifying extremes caused by global warming is now coming increasingly into focus: the mutual amplification of…

As I'm highly fascinated how this system goes now into overkill mode here a short on the main principle that drives the recent intensification of extremes

I even text corrected it - LOL***

#climate

@climatenews.bsky.social here you have the climatology peak that this MHW produced in June 2023.

Its all about mechanisms and their interacting complexity.

Sadly, simple narratives trump the complexity behind real world changes

Such peaks are impossible to be caused by just one mean change

Important: a second storm slamming into the atmospheric river is one of the possibility of how extremes can mutually amplify themselves...

Storms that hit Spain the last months...

The ocean atmosphere North Atlantic circulation is now being preconditioned to initiate storms and to intensify them...

14 till now since October 2025...

www.facebook.com/spainweather...

#climate

@climatenews.bsky.social here a small thread on the causes of the till date most exceptional marine heatwave that happened in 2023 in the North Atlantic

The one on the NP the last years is even more exceptional but will take a while for more studies.

Important: IMO2020 did not play a large role

Shows the heat accumulation in the NA in 2023. Most of it happened in the area where the marine heatwave persisted, where ocean heat uptake had been confined to the first 300m.

The following graph shows a main principle of marine heatwaves:

The intensification of surface warming intensifies upper ocean stratification shifting ocean heat uptake to the first 300m.

The NA MHW in 2023 had been a striking example...

Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023 - Nature Atmospheric reanalyses combined with ocean observations and model simulations show that the extreme 2023 North Atlantic heatwave was primarily driven by anomalously weak winds leading to strongly shoa...

Decisive question is the signal global?

"With a trend towards shallower mixed layers observed over recent decades, and projections that this will continue into the future, the severity of North Atlantic marine heatwaves is set to worsen."

Remarkable 2023 North Atlantic Ocean Warming The North Atlantic had record high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and mixed layer temperatures in summer 2023 Extreme SSTs and mixed layer temperatures were caused by atmospheric heat flux Evap...

A shallower mixed layer of the upper oceans is a global feedback caused by wind changes and upper ocean stratification - summer and seasonal signals

"A second contributor to the record SSTs was the preconditioning of mixed layer temperature following a series of anomalously warm years."

The 2023 marine heatwave in the North Atlantic tropical ocean Abstract. In the context of climate change, marine heatwaves (MHWs) are becoming more intense and frequent and/or lasting longer. During the year 2023 and based on the Copernicus Marine forecasting sy...

Highly relevant to understand todays changes: its mutual amplification between extremes (E) and upstream E's driving downstream E's

"This questions the hypotheses of additivity between mean climate and internal modes of atmospheric variability, which are traditionally made in attribution studies."

Climate Change: A French Researcher Has Discovered What’s Behind the Atlantic’s Overheating - Futura-Sciences The unprecedented acceleration of global warming since 2020 has raised many questions. On land and in the oceans alike, temperatures have risen at an exceptional pace over the past six years. For some...

A article on the study on IMO influence on the MHW in 2023:

"Climate Change: A French Researcher Has Discovered What’s Behind the Atlantic’s Overheating"; www.futura-sciences.com/en/climate-c...

Shows the North Atlantic marine heatwave in 2023 - massive one extending in a horseshoe pattern from the tropical western NA all the way to the eastern basin bending up north off the northwestern coast of Africa.

Surface atmosphere coupling behind the marine heatwave: A weak Azores high causing weak surface winds supporting less upper heat loss due to surface winds, thereby upper mixed layer depth declines, reduced cloud cover (higher SSTs evaporate low marine clouds and low moisture values suppress cloud formation), which then reinforces suns incoming radiation, all intensifying global warming caused upper ocean stratification, feeding back on SSTs as less heat is mixed below the upper mixed layer.

(a) shows how the heat accumulated especially across the first 100m of the North Atlantic over the area of the MHW. (d) shows how stratification increased in this area. (e) show the ocean heat anomaly in this area.

The graph gives an indication on how exceptional this event had been as it had been far outside the historical SST distribution range.

A new study finds only a marginal contribution of IMO shipping SOx reductions in 2020 and the exceptional marine heatwave in the North Atlantic in 2023

This result is inline with other studies of the event which had been driven by internal and external feedbacks and (forced) variability.

#climate

From a leading expert on marine heatwaves:

"Basin-scale averages often mask regional fingerprints, which are key to understanding the drivers of change"

Why the oceans are overheating is a story of the feedback complexes that drive regional extremes that show that we have here a global feedback

A graph showing the rise of sea surface temperatures Here the sources for the numbers: 0.3°C warming in the second half of 2023 "Record High Temperatures in the Ocean in 2024"; https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-025-4541-3 For the 0.97 °C number: "Indicators of global climate change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence”; https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/2625/2024/

To understand the importance of ocean surface warming in 2023 the annual mean compared to the jump is a nice first step

In the second half of 2023 global SSTs increased by ~0.3°C. Compared to that jump the increase from 1850-1900 to 2014-2023 had been 0.97°C.

#climate #UÖÄÜ1SST

YouTube video by ITV News UK weather: How bad has the flooding been? And will the rain ever stop? | ITV News

This year some regions in England had constant rain

Lots of low pressure system came in from the North Atlantic

Conditions become more favorable fast for storm series - mutual amplification possible

"How bad has the flooding been? And will the rain ever stop?"

www.youtube.com/watch?v=95Li...

'I'll need armbands soon': Flood warnings in place across UK The Environment Agency has urged people to remain vigilant to the risk of flooding as more rain is forecast for parts of the UK.

Is there now a day without floods in Europe?

#Earth #climate

Discovering new connections between Great Lakes' winter storms and global climate patterns About a year ago, researchers at the University of Michigan found that the extratropical cyclones that are the biggest drivers of winter weather in the Great Lakes region are warming and trending nort...

"extratropical cyclones that are the biggest drivers of winter weather in the Great Lakes region are warming and trending northward", growing in size, and intensifying which then intensifies their teleconnections modulating increasingly NH circulation, driven by ocean warming...

#climate #earth

Scientists learn that forests capture more methane from the air as the planet warms New research reveals that drying forest soils can boost methane uptake, offering a small but important climate benefit as warming continues.

While they will burn down...

Will happen now fast as forests are dried out by extremely hot thirst waves supported by drying out continents, circulatory feedbacks, and oceans heat accumulating increasingly closer to the surface speeding up intensification's of mutually amplifying extremes...

Widespread slowdown in short-term species turnover despite accelerating climate change - Nature Communications Change in the species composition of ecological communities is often attributed to environmental change. Here, the authors reveal a widespread slowdown in short-term species turnover over the last cen...

Global turnover species rates in ecosystems declined by a third the last decades

It's a global adaptation and stability mechanism driven by biodiversity

Another key variability of Earth's biosphere breakdown...

#Earth #climate

We are living through a period of collective psychological wreckage. It isn't just the sheer volume of the horror—the charred remains in Gaza, the hollow eyes of the starved in Sudan, the childre... We are living through a period of collective psychological wreckage. It isn't just the sheer volume of the horror—the charred remains in Gaza, the hollow eyes of the starved in Sudan, the children in...

A nice one:

"We are living through a period of collective psychological wreckage"

Its kind of fascinating to watch our species to go extinct.

Astonishing thou that it is too complicated to be communicated...

Hi Zack, I would love to read that study - highly important fundamental stuff...

"The Atmosphere as a Heat Engine Operating at Maximum Power" journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

"The Atmosphere as a Heat Engine Operating at Maximum Power"

I would love to read this study as it explains some intricacies...

If anyone can access this study?

Highly important stuff!

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

#climate #earth | Jan Umsonst My advice: stop following me! This system enters now AMOC mode - LOL*** We trigger now mutual amplification between the dynamical systems of Earth with its geobiophysical components. This system go...

Love this signal - mutual amplification is a hetero-bitch!

One of my dreams:

What I would love would be a digital twin of all the important processes, infrastructures, and transport processes showing nodes that become dysfunctional for a time, also with a index showing mean "repair" times

I bet since some years the blinking activity increased markedly

Isn't that too high?

A mean annual increase by 3ppm should be way too high - more around >2ppm...

At least with all numbers I know...

On the small margin between disruption of civilization and its collapse Most people do not understand the sheer complexity required to run the processes that keep our civilization functional.

On the small margin between disruption of civilization and its collapse

We live in times of capitalist popcorn!

#earth #climate #finance

YouTube video by DW News Indonesia: Growing threat from far-right radicalization | DW News

Capital is spreading the rise of fascism to secure wealth concentration on a dying planet which will lead to the destruction of all wealth as these fucking morons have no idea of the oscillatory overkill mode that is now becoming operational inside the physical Earth system...

#Earth #climate

Southern hemisphere eastern boundary upwelling systems emerging as future marine heatwave hotspots under greenhouse warming - Nature Communications The biologically productive eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) are regarded as thermal refugia in a warming climate. However, the authors here show that Southern Hemisphere EBUSs are likely to...

Here another expert opinion on the #AMOC changes till now:

Its in the discussion - study from 2023 - especially Chinese researchers have this position:

"This may be partially due to the fact that the anthropogenic decline of AMOC has not been underway50,51,52,53,54, especially for MHWs in BCS"

Showing mode results and in the lower left corner observations on the controlling factor (troposheric stability) of low marine cloud cover. "Responses to Lower-Tropospheric Stability Dominate Intermodel Differences in the Historical Pattern Effect"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL117015?af=R

Shows the low marine stratocumulus regions located off the west coasts of the continents

Shows nicely the zonal temperature gradients in the oceans that controls low cloud cover - oops!

A nice graph showing how the SST pattern effect controlling low cloud cover over the oceans (low marine stratocumulus regions) is already end of the 90s close to leave mode spread.

Importance here: we get a significant cloud feedback driven by higher SSTs and drying out continents

#Earth #climate