Robert Manduca

A new working paper from @umichstonecid.bsky.social/SRC researcher @robertmanduca.bsky.social examining the geography of social transfer programs & implications for cuts to Medicaid & SNAP in the recently signed federal budget.

Also see: equitablegrowth.org/medicaid-and...

If Trump signs his big bill into law, America could end up with a social safety net that ‘barely functions’ America’s social safety net is poised to become thinner if the Republicans’ massive tax and spending bill crosses the finish line, at a time when low-income consumers are struggling and recession fear...

In @marketwatch.com @robertmanduca.bsky.social helps break down what's at stake for local communities as a result of Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill—on average these safety-net programs account for 40 percent of money flowing into local communities.

www.marketwatch.com/story/how-th...

Hey that's @robertmanduca.bsky.social's research!

Medicaid and SNAP cuts in congressional Republicans’ budget bill will negatively impact local economies New research shows how cuts to Medicaid and other social programs negatively impact local economies as well as program beneficiaries.

...

58% of military in CA-22 (Valadao)

223% of water transport (Staten Island ferries! largest private industry in district) in NY-11 (Malliotakis)

100% of pipeline transport in TX-15 (De La Cruz)

equitablegrowth.org/medicaid-and... h/t @robertmanduca.bsky.social @equitablegrowth.bsky.social

"Cuts to social programs will have a major impact on local economic activity." Social programs are a key part of the regional economic base. @robertmanduca.bsky.social on how Medicaid and SNAP cuts in the #ReconciliationBill will negatively impact local economies:
equitablegrowth.org/medicaid-and...

Starting in 10 minutes!

A lot of the discussion of the reconciliation bill has focused--rightly--on the consequences for beneficiaries of these programs. 11 million people are at risk of losing Medicaid coverage, and 4.5 million stand to lose SNAP. That's a ton. But the economic impacts may be even more widespread

Opinion | My Journey Deep in the Heart of Trump Country

In Kentucky's 5th congressional district, recently profiled by Arlie Hochschild for @nytimes.com, Medicaid makes up a quarter of the entire economic base. The SNAP and Medicaid cuts would be like losing one-third of all traded private sector industries

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/09/o...

If we look just at the proposed *cuts* to Medicaid and SNAP, it's the economic equivalent of Maine losing its entire forestry and paper manufacturing industries, all at once--or Alaska losing 60% of its oil and gas industry.

Put another way, Medicaid contributes roughly as much to Detroit's economy than car manufacturing, more to Houston than the chemical industry, almost twice as much to Los Angeles as motion picture production--these are big numbers!

Medicaid and SNAP cuts in congressional Republicans’ budget bill will negatively impact local economies New research shows how cuts to Medicaid and other social programs negatively impact local economies as well as program beneficiaries.

As I describe in a post for @equitablegrowth.bsky.social, these programs are major foundations for local economies nationwide. Medicaid alone makes up about 11% of the economic base of US regions, and SNAP is about 1.4% equitablegrowth.org/medicaid-and...

Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act As passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025

Shifting from economic geography to policy, what does this mean for the current reconciliation bill? The House version is set to cut Medicaid and SNAP by about $1.2 trillion over the next 10 years--that's roughly a 12% cut to Medicaid and 27% to SNAP www.cbo.gov/publication/...

The Great Transfer-mation - Economic Innovation Group Explore your community’s reliance on government transfers through EIG’s Great Transfer-mation Project.

What's driving the change? @innovateeconomy.bsky.social reported last fall about the "Great Transfer-mation" across the US, attributing it to 1) aging populations, 2) rising healthcare costs, and 3) slower earnings growth eig.org/great-transf...

In some parts of Florida--looking at you, Cape Coral--traditional traded industries make up just *5 percent* of the economic base. The rest of the economy is based on retirement savings, pensions, Social Security, Medicare, etc.

Financial income made up another 26%. Traded sector earnings were just 24%: less than either of the other sources, and down from 35% in 2001

I compute the share of *all* economic base income that comes from transfers, financial income, and earnings in traded industries (the standard definition). The results are pretty striking: in 2022, transfer payments accounted for *40 percent* of the economic base across US regions

Usually, researchers define the economic base = traded industries only. But selling products to other cities or countries isn't the only way money can enter a local economy. I explore two other sources: financial income and government transfers. Like exports, these payments sustain the local sector

The Economic Performance of Regions P ORTER M. E. (2003) The economic performance of regions, Reg. Studies 37 , 549-578. This paper examines the basic facts about the regional economic performance, the composition of regional economi...

The two sectors play different roles in the local economy: most residents are employed by the local sector, which typically accounts for about 2/3 of jobs. But the traded sector is the ultimate foundation of a region's economic viability--its economic base

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Other industries--some examples are restaurants, grocery stores, home construction, mechanics--serve local, not national/global demand. These are the "town fillers," now usually called the "local" or "non-basic" sector

Basically, some industries--think manufacturing, farming, etc., but also film production or high finance--sell their products on national or global markets, bringing money into their local economies. They're the "town builders", which modern scholars call "traded industries" or the "basic sector"

The starting point is Economic Base Theory--a classic concept in economics and geography going back at least to Werner Sombart's 1916 classic "Der moderne Kapitalismus", which made the distinction between "town builders" and "town fillers"

Financial and Transfer Income as Components of the Regional Economic Base Government transfers and financial income form a major component of the basic sector in the United States.

New working paper alert! Posted at @equitablegrowth.bsky.social, it investigates the economic geography of social transfer programs and financial income--with implications for the Medicaid and SNAP cuts proposed in the reconciliation bill 👀

equitablegrowth.org/working-pape...

Medicaid and SNAP cuts in congressional Republicans’ budget bill will negatively impact local economies New research shows how cuts to Medicaid and other social programs negatively impact local economies as well as program beneficiaries.

Reductions to essential public programs in the budget reconciliation bill impact more than beneficiaries. They affect key service providers, local businesses, and community stability.

@robertmanduca.bsky.social on Medicaid and SNAP cuts impacting local economies:

Really excited for this!

Social Security, unemployment insurance and child tax credits are in a sense assets that aren’t usually counted up when discussing wealth and #inequality. A sociologist explains how these benefits are worth far more in countries like Norway: buff.ly/yA3Ljst By @robertmanduca.bsky.social @umich.edu

You’re probably richer than you think because of the safety net – but you’d have more of that hidden wealth if you lived in Norway The typical worker on the verge of retirement is due roughly $412,000 in this under-the-radar wealth.

Social Security, unemployment insurance and child tax credits are in a sense assets that aren’t usually counted up when discussing wealth and #inequality. A sociologist explains how these benefits are worth far more in countries like Norway: buff.ly/NkctZvA By @robertmanduca.bsky.social @umich.edu

You’re probably richer than you think because of the safety net – but you’d have more of that hidden wealth if you lived in Norway The typical worker on the verge of retirement is due roughly $412,000 in this under-the-radar wealth.

How wealthy are you? Join our own #umich #sociologist @robertmanduca.bsky.social as he explores an aspect of personal wealth many of us overlook: the benefits Americans will get from Social Security and other similar government benefit programs (via @us.theconversation.com). myumi.ch/4mxgq

You’re probably richer than you think because of the safety net – but you’d have more of that hidden wealth if you lived in Norway The typical worker on the verge of retirement is due roughly $412,000 in this under-the-radar wealth.

I'm in @theconversation.com today writing about my recent paper on augmented wealth!

theconversation.com/youre-probab...

this is predictable. it is structural.

the marginal voter has concerns orthogonal to the dimensions of contestation btw the parties. it's much more frequent just to care abt other things than to deeply care abt yet be perfectly balanced btw the candidates' issues. www.interfluidity.com/v2/7687.html

Yes the accepted manuscript (everything but copyediting) is here: robertmanduca.com/projects/man...