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David Ucko

@ucko.bsky.social

Head of Net Assessment @ NATO, author, and retired academic, writing in personal capacity.

443 Followers  |  185 Following  |  92 Posts  |  Joined: 09.11.2023  |  1.6366

Latest posts by ucko.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Able Archer 83 (Re)-revisited Reflections on a Complex Non-crisis

Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear โ€œnon-crisisโ€ of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...

19.07.2025 15:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont...
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social

18.07.2025 11:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow? - In Moscow's Shadows In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gan...

Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to comeโ€ฆ

inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

17.07.2025 16:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Second, we propose an analytical framework, designed for irregular warfare, to aid practitioners in their assessment of, and their response to, organized crime. Hopefully of use to practitioners, educators, and academics. An abbreviated โ€œuserโ€™s guideโ€ in Appendix A facilitates its rapid employment.

17.07.2025 06:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This book is based on the urgent need for a more effective response to organized crime. Its does two things. First, it applies an โ€œirregular warfareโ€ lens to the problem of organized crime, which helps situate the divergent criminal activity within its crucial political context.

17.07.2025 06:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press).

Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...

17.07.2025 06:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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A Survey of Europe's Defense and Security Landscape Modern War Institute ยท Episode

Excellent discussion of Europeโ€™s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...

04.06.2025 13:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
ูƒุชุงุจ ุตูŠุงุบุฉ ุงุณุชุฑุงุชูŠุฌูŠุฉ ู„ู„ุญุฑุจ ุบูŠุฑ ุงู„ู†ุธุงู…ูŠุฉ ).pdf

UPDATE: entire manuscript availabe here: drive.google.com/file/d/1EJ1_...

08.05.2025 06:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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ูŠุง ู„ู„ุฑูˆุนุฉ
Iโ€™m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our โ€œCrafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Actionโ€ (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! Iโ€™m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practionerโ€™s toolkit.

06.05.2025 19:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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EU sets 2027 as deadline to phase out all Russian fuels, including LNG Imports of Russian oil, gas and nuclear materials must stop by 2027 at the very latest, Brussels has proposed in a new ambitious strategy. #EuropeNews

Excellent news. Less excellent: โ€œIn total, the EU spent an estimated โ‚ฌ23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding the military support provided to Ukraine.โ€

www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

06.05.2025 19:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Apaches (subculture) - Wikipedia

On the cover, see en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apaches...

Thanks to SOC ACE Research Programme for sponsoring this work.

Out later this year, courtesy of NDU Press.

17.04.2025 11:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Glad to announce that my latest work, โ€œA Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare,โ€ now has a cover. Co-authored with Tom Marks, it presents organized crime as an IW problem and proposes a framework to help with analysis and response.

17.04.2025 11:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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How Iran Is Weaponizing Europeโ€™s Criminal Underworld Tehran is turning violent networks like Swedenโ€™s Foxtrot and Irelandโ€™s Kinahan cartel into tools of covert statecraft

Good reporting on Iranโ€™s use of criminal groups to exert influence abroad, specifically in Europe. The tactic is old; our response isโ€ฆ getting better. Much like Russiaโ€™s subversion, the problem isnโ€™t just the singular attack but the broader strategy. newlinesmag.com/spotlight/ho....

16.04.2025 19:29 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

My chapter deals with โ€˜war as risk managementโ€™ and I only regret I could not discuss it with Christopherโ€”I know the exchange would have been thought-provoking and enjoyable. Kudos to the editors for putting this together.

02.04.2025 17:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Coker on War | Hurst Publishers A homage to the late, great scholar of war, exploring his considerable legacy and engaging with questions of conflict and strategy in the same spirit.

Very meaningful for me to contribute to this Festschrift for Christopher Coker, my mentor and friend for many years who sadly passed in 2023. www.hurstpublishers.com/book/coker-o...

02.04.2025 17:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Speech by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte followed by moderated discussion at the Warsaw School of Economics (As delivered)

Effective speech by Mark Rutte on the NATO today and tomorrow: a stronger, fairer and more lethal Alliance. This is a potent message to those who wonder about NATO and the commitment to trans-Atlantic security. www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...

02.04.2025 16:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Assistant Secretary General Defence Policy and Planning job in Brussels, Belgium Assistant Secretary General Defence Policy and Planning job in Brussels, Belgium

Job opening: A crucial opportunity to lead NATO defence policy and planning at a crucial time for the Alliance (โ€ฆand you get to be my boss!) www.globaljobs.org/jobs/46638-b...

26.03.2025 10:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Trumpโ€™s Greenland grab โ€“ A great power contest in the Arctic? This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler ยท Episode

Gavin Esler interviews Klaus Dodds on Arctic geopolitics. Insightful and informed discussion. open.spotify.com/episode/65CW...

13.03.2025 10:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Ep 180: Stephen Kotkin on Endgames in Ukraine School of War ยท Episode

Insightful podcast with Stephen Kotkin that will probably anger both fans and detractors of Americaโ€™s recent shifts on Ukraineโ€”and the world. That in itself makes it worth a listen.
open.spotify.com/episode/4r61...

06.03.2025 19:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Insightful book review of my โ€œThe Insurgentโ€™s Dilemmaโ€ by Maj. Travis Peet for the Australian Army Research Centre. Captures the state equivalents of the non-state strategies I exploreโ€”a key area of convergence. Many thanks.
researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/aust...
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social

25.02.2025 12:51 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Small, smart, many and cheaper: Competitive adaptation in modern warfare T.X. Hammes reflects on the growing role of cheap and adaptable technologies in fighting the wars of tomorrow.

TX Hammes offers compellling take on the need to adapt for modern warfare. As Hammes has long argued, and as Ukraine bears out, itโ€™s time to move from the โ€œfew and exquisiteโ€ capabilities to the โ€œsmall, smart, and manyโ€. www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-seri...

19.02.2025 07:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Thereโ€™s a Term for What Trump and Musk Are Doing How regime change happens in America

@anneapplebaum.bsky.social on the deliberate traumatization of the federal workforce. The US is moving from a civil service to a patronage system of fealty and loyalty tests. The effect is both insulting and injurious. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

17.02.2025 06:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Spare a thought for the many people whose lives and careers have been completely upended this last month, and for the many who depended on those very people. Reform and change are always possible but the approach and attitude have been nothing short of spiteful. And to what endโ€ฆ?

08.02.2025 09:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 34    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Having worked for the US federal government for several years, it angers and saddens me to see the hateful treatment of many fine workersโ€”people who have devoted their lives to US interests and values.

08.02.2025 09:03 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 129    ๐Ÿ” 13    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The Heartless Upheaval of American Foreign Aid Thousands of Americans have had their lives overturned and millions abroad will suffer from the closure of USAID.

The Trump Administration's attempts to dismantle USAID touches the lives of American public servants & millions of people abroad who depend on it for health services, education, & shelter. Tom Carothers explores the gravity & uncertainty of the situation: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

06.02.2025 16:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 16    ๐Ÿ” 13    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Beyond the Nuclear Balance: A Strategic Forces Net Assessment View PDF of executive summaryView PDF of full report Executive Summary

Krepinevich's net assessment of US, RUS & PRC strategic forcesโ€”nuclear & non-nuclear. In contrast with Cold War, these products must now account for multipolar dynamics and great uncertainty. Many crucial findings in here that should inform defense planning and policy.
www.hudson.org/defense-stra...

06.02.2025 15:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The Components of Russiaโ€™s Undeclared War Against the West Russiaโ€™s undeclared war against the West is intensifying, leveraging fear, destabilisation and covert operations to undermine NATO unity and Western resilience.

Effective commentary on Russiaโ€™s โ€œundeclared war against the West.โ€ The welcome mention of Georgia denonstrates the potency of the attack.
rusi.org/explore-our-...

29.01.2025 14:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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In Moscow's Shadows 184: One Hundred Years of Companionship? - In Moscow's Shadows The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed op...

Insightful podcast by @markgaleotti.bsky.social on the UK-Ukrainian โ€˜One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement', and - indirectly - what it says about the larger challenges and opportunities for supporting Kyiv.

inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

27.01.2025 13:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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How China is Erasing Tibetan Culture, One Child at a Time (Gift Article) Across Chinaโ€™s west, the Communist Party is placing children in boarding schools to assimilate a generation of Tibetans into the national mainstream and mold them into loyal citizens.

The targeting of children and schools to compel socio-political assimilation. Sadly quite โ€˜effectiveโ€™. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

12.01.2025 09:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Turkey's offer to rebuild the Syria military is an opening to displace Russian and Iranian power Syria's new government likely needs arms to solidify its hold on power. That's an opening for its Turkish backers.

As several experiences in state-building bear out, building a political order is far more complex than arming a proxy, not least when in a fraught regional environment such as Syriaโ€™s. Will past failures inform this effort?
www.businessinsider.com/turkey-influ...

09.01.2025 06:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@ucko is following 20 prominent accounts