David Ucko

Episode 1: Words Matter: Irregular Warfare Definitions and Constructs Guests Robert S. Burrell, Richard Tilley, and David H. Ucko join host Col. Dave Brown to discuss the definition of Irregular Warfare (IW), its changing construct in DoD, and its overall utility. The g...

For my thoughts on the matter: digital-commons.usnwc.edu/the-trident/1/

Codifying Irregular Warfare—Inside the Pentagon’s new DoD Instruction 3000.07

While I am no fan of DoD’s new Irregular Warfare definition, this discussion of its recent IW Directive provides crucial context and raises the right questions. I do wonder about DoD’s ability to folllow through... open.spotify.com/episode/1VtO...

Rethinking strategic depth in the Baltic States It is a truism in defence analysis that the Baltic States lack strategic depth, giving the impression that strategic depth is immutable. Such spatial fatalism weakens strategic thinking by eliding ...

This thought-provoking piece challenges common presumptions about strategic depth—particularly as concerns the Baltics. Lukas Milevski argues an invading military would move far slower than presumed due to sparse infrastructure, difficult terrain and the effects of contestation. lnkd.in/eHpAUaTH

I’m looking forward to an opportunity to discuss the topic of my recent book (The Insurgent’s Dilemma) in the context of evolving counterterrorism.

Registration for this virtual event is open to all.

A Framework for Countering Organized Crime States continue to struggle in their efforts to counter organized crime. Despite states having scored successes at the operational level, organized crime has proven too adaptable and too resilient to ...

With the US military striking another alleged drug boat, can isolated hits effectively counter organized crime? My recent book (w/ Tom Marks) urges a strategic approach and lays out a framework for how to analyze the problem and craft a response. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/strategic-mo...

Studying Moscow’s Coercive Campaign Against Norway Norway’s geopolitical position as both a neighbour of Russia and a member of NATO places it at the forefront of Moscow’s self-assertive and aggressive foreign and security policy. However, Norway’s...

From 2023, but Cdr Spansvoll does a great job mapping out the informational, political and military LoE of Russia’s destabilization campaign vs Norway. The implication is very much that we need a campaign to counter a campaign—and that’s still v. relevant today.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Theories of Victory: Israel, Hamas, and the Meaning of Success in Irregular Warfare Two months in, what does the war between Israel and Hamas tell us about victory and defeat in irregular warfare? There is no difficulty in identifying those who have lost the most through this conflic...

Given events in Israel/Gaza, I revisited my Dec23 assessment of who might prevail. Two years on, my sense is "plus ça change, plus ça reste la même chose" but also that all now hinges on the political consolidation of the peace deal—arguably the hardest bit. irregularwarfare.org/articles/the...

Contested Logistics: Restructuring Battalion Logistics to Combat Peer Threats by First Lieutenant Brendan Sanders

Despite an abstruse style, this is insightful on the need to adapt tactical-level logistics toward a more distributed (and less targetable) “push” system. Obviously nature of adversary matters and the caution about unsustainability warrants further thought. thecxfile.substack.com/p/contested-...

The Insurgent’s Dilemma: A Struggle to Prevail David E. Spencer’s review of The Insurgent’s Dilemma highlights David Ucko’s nuanced analysis of the strategic challenges insurgent movements face in balancing military efficacy with

Glad to see David Spencer‘s review of my book on the future of insurgency featured in RealClearDefense. He does a great job applying his own expertise to the argument I tried to advance. www.realcleardefense.com/2025/10/13/t...

The Military Technological Arms Race in Ukraine

Informative podcast with Samuel Bendett on tech adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Covers integration of commercial technology, the role of volunteers and innovators in society, and the crucial need to adapt—and adapt again—to a constantly changing battlefield.

open.spotify.com/episode/3fG4...

Russians Do Break: Historical and Cultural Context for a Prospective Ukrainian Victory For major wars like the one being fought between Russia and Ukraine, the military, the people, and the state interact with one another to constitute a

Insightful analysis of Russia’s breaking point by Ben Connable. Despite a record of sacrifice and fatalism, history suggests key vulnerabilities that are also in play for Russia today. As Ben also notes, much will also depends on our own resolve. warontherocks.com/2024/09/russ...

Is Colombia at the “gates of hell”? Opposing candidates in next year’s presidential election hold wildly divergent views of their country

SITREP from Colombia: tremendous economic potential, long tradition of democracy and yet struggling as always with security and governance beyond the big cities. On that front, matters have worsened since the FARC peace deal.

economist.com/the-americas...

Moldova detains 74 over alleged Russian plot to stir up unrest Online disinformation aimed at discrediting Moldova's pro-European government is ramping up ahead of the crunch parliamentary elections on 28 September.

Good to see Moldova taking proactive measures to counter Russian disinformation and agitation. www.euronews.com/2025/09/22/m...

The First World War: The Invasion of Belgium (Part 1) Podcast Episode · The Rest Is History · 24/08/2025 · 56m

Perhaps living in Brussels made me particularly interested in this Rest is History series on the invasion of Belgium in 1914. Educational and enthralling, this is also relevant to the war in Ukraine and the prospect of further conflict in Europe in years to come.
podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/t...

Able Archer 83 (Re)-revisited Reflections on a Complex Non-crisis

Austin Long provides important clarity on the Able Archer nuclear “non-crisis” of 1983. Held by some as a whisker away from Armageddon, the moment illustrates instead the need to understand both ourselves - the signals we send - and our enemy. strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/able-arche...

Drawing on his experience with FARC, David Spencer has penned a superb review of my book 'The Insurgent's Dilemma', exploring the innovations in insurgent strategy and response options that the book covers. Many thanks. digitalcommons.ndu.edu/cgi/viewcont...
@hurstpublishers.bsky.social

In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow? - In Moscow's Shadows In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gan...

Podcast: @markgaleotti.bsky.social dissects how a seemingly mundane counter-gang arrest in a provincial Russian capital has escalated the fall-out between Moscow and Baku - and there may be more to come…

inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Second, we propose an analytical framework, designed for irregular warfare, to aid practitioners in their assessment of, and their response to, organized crime. Hopefully of use to practitioners, educators, and academics. An abbreviated “user’s guide” in Appendix A facilitates its rapid employment.

This book is based on the urgent need for a more effective response to organized crime. Its does two things. First, it applies an “irregular warfare” lens to the problem of organized crime, which helps situate the divergent criminal activity within its crucial political context.

NOW OUT: A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning, and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare, by David H. Ucko and Thomas A Marks (NDU Press).

Available in full at: ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/N...

A Survey of Europe's Defense and Security Landscape Modern War Institute · Episode

Excellent discussion of Europe’s security and defence landscape with @edarnold.bsky.social, RUSI, via the great Modern War Institute at West Point podcast. Very relevant to #NATO. open.spotify.com/episode/7MSk...

UPDATE: entire manuscript availabe here: drive.google.com/file/d/1EJ1_...

يا للروعة
I’m now available in Arabic, thanks to the Saudi National Defense University. They have translated our “Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action” (w/ Tom Marks, NDU Press)! I’m hopeful this will further extend the impact of this practioner’s toolkit.

EU sets 2027 as deadline to phase out all Russian fuels, including LNG Imports of Russian oil, gas and nuclear materials must stop by 2027 at the very latest, Brussels has proposed in a new ambitious strategy. #EuropeNews

Excellent news. Less excellent: “In total, the EU spent an estimated €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding the military support provided to Ukraine.”

www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Apaches (subculture) - Wikipedia

On the cover, see en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apaches...

Thanks to SOC ACE Research Programme for sponsoring this work.

Out later this year, courtesy of NDU Press.

Glad to announce that my latest work, “A Framework for Countering Organized Crime: Strategy, Planning and the Lessons of Irregular Warfare,” now has a cover. Co-authored with Tom Marks, it presents organized crime as an IW problem and proposes a framework to help with analysis and response.

How Iran Is Weaponizing Europe’s Criminal Underworld Tehran is turning violent networks like Sweden’s Foxtrot and Ireland’s Kinahan cartel into tools of covert statecraft

Good reporting on Iran’s use of criminal groups to exert influence abroad, specifically in Europe. The tactic is old; our response is… getting better. Much like Russia’s subversion, the problem isn’t just the singular attack but the broader strategy. newlinesmag.com/spotlight/ho....

My chapter deals with ‘war as risk management’ and I only regret I could not discuss it with Christopher—I know the exchange would have been thought-provoking and enjoyable. Kudos to the editors for putting this together.

Coker on War | Hurst Publishers A homage to the late, great scholar of war, exploring his considerable legacy and engaging with questions of conflict and strategy in the same spirit.

Very meaningful for me to contribute to this Festschrift for Christopher Coker, my mentor and friend for many years who sadly passed in 2023. www.hurstpublishers.com/book/coker-o...

Effective speech by Mark Rutte on the NATO today and tomorrow: a stronger, fairer and more lethal Alliance. This is a potent message to those who wonder about NATO and the commitment to trans-Atlantic security. www.nato.int/cps/en/natoh...