Leonie Allard

«On ne se cache pas» : la France en pleine démonstration de force diplomatique et stratégique dans le nord de la Suède La mission «Pégase Grand Nord» de l’Armée de l’air s’est concentrée sur Lulea, point stratégique des plans de défense de l’Otan, dans un contexte de menaces russes sur l’Europe, de rhétorique nucléair...

Reportage avec la mission française Pégase Grand Nord, à Lulea, dans le nord de la Suède, nouveau point d’appui stratégique de l'Otan atlantique. A lire dans Libé ce matin www.liberation.fr/internationa...

Tariffs Are Bad for Europe. Drawing Closer to China Isn’t a Magic Bullet. For Europe, doubling down on its relationship with China could come at a steep price—including the loss of its storied auto industry.

US Tariffs Are Bad for Europe. Drawing Closer to China Isn’t a Magic Bullet

My comments to Tom Fairless @wsj.com

www.wsj.com/economy/trad...

West can send troops to Ukraine without Russia's permission, Macron says "Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien.

⚡️West can send troops to Ukraine without Russia's permission, Macron says.

"Ukraine is sovereign – if it requests allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or reject it," French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Le Parisien.

Indo-Pacific: the French way? We tried to answer at #PDSF2025 with Admiral Mallard calling from the carrier strike group currently in the Indian Ocean, @taravarma.bsky.social who flew from Washington, Darshana Baruah all the way from Singapore, Commander Martinot from the joint staff in Paris.

The PRC was obsessed with it for good reason (see below).

When I was at the NSC, ONA produced some of the best analysis anywhere in the USG and had enormous and even historic policy impact. No other institution presently can do what it did.

Ending it is another unforced error.

Deciphering French Strategy in the Indo-Pacific - War on the Rocks From the fanfare-laden reopening of Notre-Dame to the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit held in the cavernous halls of the Grand Palais, to

Deciphering French Strategy in the #IndoPacific, by @lallard.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci... via @warontherocks.bsky.social #France

Deciphering French Strategy in the Indo-Pacific - War on the Rocks From the fanfare-laden reopening of Notre-Dame to the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit held in the cavernous halls of the Grand Palais, to

As the French Carrier Strike Group steams through the Indian and Pacific oceans, I try to decipher France's Indo-Pac strategy. Why now, and for what purpose, especially at a time when France seems to have so many more pressing geopolitical concerns closer to home?
warontherocks.com/2025/03/deci...

Emmanuel Macron a lancé, devant les chefs des armées de plus de 30 pays réunis à Paris, les travaux opérationnels pour passer à la planification des "garanties de sécurité crédibles" à apporter à l'Ukraine en cas d'accord de paix avec la Russie.

Steve Hadley, Frank Kramer, & I try to look ahead to what a sustainable peace for Ukraine would take.

How the Trump administration makes foreign policy decisions The Technocratic versus Factional Processes

"Trump(...) has clearly chosen a factional process. So, the question for the moment for those outside the administration is how should this change how we understand and interact with the US government?"
substack.com/profile/1857...

And so it goes. This isn't simply or primarily about Trump throwing Zelensky under the bus. This is about the future, if any, of the US as an alliance partner

Friends with Benefits: How Russia’s Opportunistic Partnerships Stymie Nonproliferation Efforts Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has deepened ties with North Korea, Iran, and China, raising proliferation risks. This cooperation threatens global stability, placing a critical responsibility on the Uni...

✍️While Moscow leans on North Korea, Iran and China to prop up its war effort, these mutually beneficial relationships support needs of its partners in WMDs, fuelling a global arms race.

We explain how and possible responses with Astrid Chevreuil and Nicholas Lokker ⬇️ www.csis.org/analysis/fri...

US Sec of Defense Pete Hegseth sits in a blue suit at NATO HQ in Brussels reading a statement.

“I’m here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being the primary guarantor of security in Europe.”

US Secretary of Defence, February 12, 2025.

Everything changed today.

Now is Europe’s moment for decisive action on Ukraine Make Trump an offer he can’t refuse: European allies should propose deploying troops in Ukraine.

If Europeans want to shape Trump’s approach to the war in Ukraine, a centerpiece of their strategy must be a European offer to deploy troops in Ukraine, write Léonie Allard and Ian Brzezinski.

“The time is now for Europe to act and to act decisively.”

French Carrier Strike Group-led exercise La Perouse showcases the ability of a multinational coalition of nine countries to secure the 3 main straits instrumental to global commercial shipping in Indonesia : Malacca, Sunda, Lombok. Relevant in a Taiwan contingency.
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

Europe needs a coalition of the resolute Europe must develop a “coalition of the resolute” to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.

With @elietenenbaum.bsky.social we argue that Europeans must consolidate a position on future security guarantees for Ukraine as Trump's inauguration nears. We unpack how key countries can lead the way, how to build a robust framework and why it has value now.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

Ukraine war latest: 'Couple hundred' North Korean troops lost fighting for Russia against Ukraine, AP reports Key developments on Dec. 18: * 'Couple hundred' North Korean troops lost fighting for Russia against Ukraine, AP reports * Sweden 'does not exclude' more direct physical presence in Ukraine to bols...

'Couple hundred' North Korean troops lost fighting for Russia against Ukraine, AP reports; Sweden 'does not exclude' more direct physical presence in Ukraine to bolster defense; and more.

EU imposes sanctions on Chinese companies, North Korean minister over Ukraine war The EU imposed fully fledged sanctions on Dec. 16, including asset freezes and visa bans, on Chinese firms for supplying Russia's military for the war against Ukraine.

⚡️EU imposes sanctions on Chinese companies, North Korean minister over Ukraine war.

The EU imposed fully fledged sanctions on Dec. 16, including asset freezes and visa bans, on Chinese firms for supplying Russia's military for the war against Ukraine.

Dispatch from Bucharest: Why has Romanian politics suddenly gone sideways? Twin shocks—Călin Georgescu’s political rise and the annulment of the November 24 presidential election—have shaken the hitherto complacent centrists in Romania.

Never good when an election is nullified, even under pressure of Russian info opps. What happened in Romania and what’s the way ahead?

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...

Macron expected to raise possibility of peacekeepers in Ukraine at upcoming EU summit, RFE/RL reports French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to raise the possibility of deploying European soldiers to Ukraine at the upcoming EU leaders' summit on Dec. 18-19, if a ceasefire deal is eventually reac...

French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to raise the possibility of deploying European soldiers to Ukraine at the upcoming EU summit on Dec. 18-19, if a ceasefire deal is eventually reached between Russia and Ukraine, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on Dec. 13, citing EU diplomats.

📍 Estonie | Exercice 🇪🇪 #PIKNE ⚡
Dans le domaine aérien:
➡️ Projection de forces depuis la 🇫🇷 vers 🇪🇪.
➡️ Appui de troupes au sol par les Rafale 🇫🇷 déployés en 🇱🇹.
➡️ Projection rapide en coordination avec nos alliés de l’@OTAN_FR

#StrongerTogether

Tribute from the 🇫🇷 navy to Notre Dame on the day it reopens, from the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier

Ukraine’s Security Now Depends on Europe A deal to end the war must include ironclad assurances.

🚨Just out: my last piece in @foreignaffairs.com with Leo Litra calling for a European coalition to issue security guarantees to Ukraine: a military credible mechanism on the ground is not only possible, it is the only acceptable option in the medium term www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...

France, UK discuss deploying troops to Ukraine for ceasefire monitoring, sources tell RFE/RL The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, noted that these discussions happen in individual capitals, not within NATO.

⚡️France, UK discuss deploying troops to Ukraine for ceasefire monitoring, sources tell RFE/RL.

The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly, noted that these discussions happen in individual capitals, not within the formal NATO structure.

Nato chief warns Donald Trump of ‘dire threat’ to US if Ukraine pushed into bad peace deal Mark Rutte says risks to America will increase if China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are empowered

That’s probably the right way to argue this.

“And there is one Xi Jinping watching very carefully what comes out of this,” he added, in an apparent reference to fears that if Russia is allowed to seize large parts of Ukraine, Xi may feel emboldened to use force against Taiwan.”

EU defence scheme to fund smart ships, undersea cable protection, new helicopter motors in 2025 Earlier this month, two cables were cut, which Germany and Sweden attributed to “sabotage”.

A welcome undersea focus in the 2025 European Defence Fund for smart ships, unmanned systems & underwater networks projects. A focus of the EU 2023 Maritime Security Strategy & EU-NATO cooperation within the joint resilience taskforce and undersea infrastructure coordination cell shorturl.at/YQI1D