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Ben Bailey

@benfb.bsky.social

Sr. Data Engineer at Workleap // I write about baseball at cubofcoffee.com and other things at benbailey.me // Hampshire College alumn

305 Followers  |  58 Following  |  185 Posts  |  Joined: 29.05.2023  |  2.1766

Latest posts by benfb.bsky.social on Bluesky

Where’s Aaron Ashby when you need him?

18.10.2025 00:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

That double (117.3 MPH) was the hardest-hit ball of Seiya Suzuki's career. His previous hardest was this home run against the Reds in May (116.2 MPH) sporty-clips.mlb.com/YVkyVmVfWGw0...

08.10.2025 22:21 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I never expected Michael Busch to be this good

08.10.2025 21:43 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

With the Brewers set to use Aaron Ashby as an opener, I wouldn't be against the Cubs' having Turner lead off. Because the Cubs are the away team, he could take 1 PA without needing to play the field. You're locking yourself in to a Koenig/Busch or Koenig/PCA matchup later but it could be worth it.

05.10.2025 20:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Somehow, the Cubs have the second highest wRC+ in the playoffs

03.10.2025 16:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Cubs relievers in the Wild Card series against the Padres (Game 2 includes opener Kittredge instead of bulk guy Imanaga)

14.2 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K

03.10.2025 01:39 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The Cubs and Padres bullpens each allowed 2 runs this series

03.10.2025 00:20 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Does the Trajekt machine go up to 104? Asking for 9 friends

02.10.2025 17:53 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

See, Jed did trade for a playoff starter!

30.09.2025 22:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

For better or worse, one more time

29.09.2025 22:24 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

…All relievers after August 1st:

ERA: 7th (Padres: 4th)
xERA: 4th (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 5th (Padres: 4th)
xFIP: 1st (Padres: 6th)
K-BB%: 1st (Padres: 4th)

I’d still pick the Padres’ bullpen, but there hasn’t been a huge gap there with the current group of relievers for both teams.

29.09.2025 20:10 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Lots of talk about how good the Padres bullpen is (it’s very good). The Cubs’ pen has quietly been right there

Cubs’ rank in stats for pitchers on the active roster as relievers:

ERA: 1st (Padres: 6th)
xERA: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
FIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
xFIP: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)
K-BB%: 3rd (Padres: 2nd)…

29.09.2025 20:09 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

You can't let Colin Rea exceed his career high in strikeouts by 2 against you in a playoff race, those are the rules

19.09.2025 00:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

@mikepetriello.bsky.social Not sure where to direct this, but it seems like Porter Hodge has thrown a third pitch in his last few outings which is getting called as an 86-88 MPH fastball. Just in case the pitch classification gods have not noticed yet!

16.09.2025 01:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Kittredge with the Cubs: 3.06 ERA, 1.75 xERA, 2.41 FIP, 1.81 xFIP, 36.4% K%, 4.5% BB%

15.09.2025 03:52 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

After two very impressive games, Nico Hoerner is up to a 111 wRC+, and he’ll be averaging more than 4 wins per season. Still feels like he’s underrated.

12.09.2025 20:08 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Baseball is funny because you play 162 games and then your season can depend on whether or not Drew Pomeranz can get RamΓ³n Laureano out.

12.09.2025 05:02 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Interesting, thanks! Funny because Busch also doesn’t rate very well (good last year though and I know range is a bigger factor there than scoops)

10.09.2025 21:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

@mikepetriello.bsky.social Not sure if you’re still doing defense threads, but any idea why OAA and DRS have such a big discrepancy with Matt Shaw? I feel like a lot of his better plays are related to his hands (tricky hops) and his mislays or more range-based which might explain it but anecdotal

10.09.2025 20:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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2. September performance and being hot going into the playoffs don’t tell you more than regular season record blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinal...

22.08.2025 04:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Drew Pomeranz and Caleb Thielbar were both feeling it tonight

03.09.2025 02:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Ah, well

02.09.2025 17:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

In the third inning, Suzuki hit his eighth barrel for an out this month.

23.08.2025 02:18 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

In the first inning, Suzuki hit his seventh barrel for an out this month.

23.08.2025 01:50 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Kyle Hendricks is still showing up at the top of good leaderboards

22.08.2025 15:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
How often does the best team win? A unified approach to understanding randomness in North American sport Statistical applications in sports have long centered on how to best separate signal (e.g. team talent) from random noise. However, most of this work has concentrated on a single sport, and the develo...

3. The best team usually doesn’t win the World Series. For the better team to advance in a series as frequently as in the NBA, teams would need to play best of 75 game series.

22.08.2025 04:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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2. September performance and being hot going into the playoffs don’t tell you more than regular season record blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinal...

22.08.2025 04:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Yes, the Playoffs Are Still a Crapshoot Well, unless you’re playing the Twins.

Some reminders as we go into September/the playoffs:
1. There is no one way teams play or one stat that predicts which teams do well in the playoffs

22.08.2025 04:42 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Coming into tonight, Suzuki was the only hitter in baseball with 5 barrels hit for outs this month. He added another in the first inning.

21.08.2025 04:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Here’s a β€œfun” fact: Seiya Suzuki leads the league in barrels hit for outs this year at 25 (41% of his barrels). That’s five more than the next hitters. Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson are both top 15 in β€œbarrel-outs” this year as well. The Cubs as a team lead the league in barrel-outs by 3.

21.08.2025 04:48 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

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