Naftali Weinberger

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New open access paper in which we apply the Nyquist-Shannon thereom from signal processing to 2 EMA datasets to figure out the optimal sampling frequency for EMA assessments.

🧪 #psychscisky #statssky

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Can't really explain it, but I think of watching TV as kind of like looking into someone's living room, reading a book as having a conversation, listening to a podcast as like overhearing to a conversation, and listening to the radio like listening to a public speech.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences: Vol 380, No 1939

Our special issue on Evolutionary Functions of Consciousness, coedited with Tecumseh Fitch and Adina Roskies, now online royalsocietypublishing.org/toc/rstb/202...

Contributions by (1) Irina Mikhalevich; (2) Eva Jablonka and Simona Ginsburg; (3) Nicholas Humphrey; (cont'd)

YouTube video by Causal Foundations E9: Using Causal Graphs to Change the World

This week's episode is on the Manipulation Theorem, which is not well-known in the broader causal community, but has hugely influenced philosophers. I cover hard vs soft interventions, why causation doesn't require human agents, and whether causation requires open systems.

youtu.be/fg1ApidilVM

Clearly you need to conceal it with a Harry Potter book cover

"Are we the baddies?"

I was honored to be asked to comment on David's talk. Many of you know him from his philosophy of physics work, though my interaction goes back to his teaching the 1st course I took in philosophy of science.

Full talk in Sean's link. For my commentary, start here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...

Is this grass wet because it rained or because the sprinkler was on? Trick question: this is Los Angeles. The sprinkler was on.

Pearl's alarm goes off. Is it a burglary or an earthquake? (Such a Los Angeles question). Who knows? John or Mary will have to tell him because it's bumper-to-bumper on I-405.

Continuing our drive to rate the classics, here are two maximally LA-coded suburban DAGs from Judea Pearl. There's thirsty lawns and sprinklers, burglars and earthquakes, and neighbors who call you if your alarm goes off.

9/10 because there's no mention of the traffic.

Kids don't need us to be their buddies. They need us to be what our teachers were—firm, fair, and just a little out of touch. Someone's got to show them how to age with style.

I'm revising a paper, and I still haven't managed to force myself to remove a snarky comment that doesn't seem uber-professional, but which best captures the reaction I'm trying to pre-empt. What do y'all think?

We swear that Bielefeld exists! We even had a speaker coming from there. And his train was delayed. In Bielefeld! Which totally exists!

YouTube video by Causal Foundations How to make sense of probabilities over causal parameters

What does it mean to assign probabilities to causal parameters? In just one minute and 33 seconds, I explain why this is puzzling, and how you can nevertheless make sense of it.

youtu.be/UMJSFkz2sCg

Next talk from the #NaturalPhilosophy Symposium is David Albert on Fundamental Laws of Physics and the Idea of Agency, with commentary by Naftali Weinberger @dagophile.bsky.social.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TwP...

YouTube video by Causal Foundations E8.1: Are We Living in a Simulation?

Now the thumbnail has a very recent pop culture reference to attract the youth.

youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU

YouTube video by Causal Foundations E8.1: Are We Living in a Simulation?

In the latest episode, I relate Bostrom's simulation argument to debates over the causal faithfulness condition. I get into interpretations of probability, why "coincidental"≠"improbable", and what it means to assign a probability to a causal parameter.

youtu.be/9Jwrw-oSUFU

"At 76.4 percent, it's the lowest turnout for a parliamentary election since 2012"

I can confirm the German accent -- no deep fakes here. Perfect color-matching would violate the positivity assumption, which makes me nervous...

These DAGs are rescues and their former owner seems to have called them Mcar, Mar and Nmar. We think those names are a bit weird to be honest, but the DAGs seem happy enough.

Today, three adorable missing data DAGs. O* is missing when Rₒ masks it and O otherwise. Now, can we d-separate Rₒ and O?

12/10 Ten for the graphs, plus two for casually flipping "causal inference is a missing data problem"

From Mohan & Pearl (2021) "Graphical Models for Processing Missing Data"

"the Afghanisdag", a massive tangle of arrows and noun phrases, possibly describing a counterinsurgency problem: lethal within 20ft in briefing environments.

Hello Bluesky!

We rate DAGs. Some are great. Some are... not so great. But we rate them all.

Let's start with a famous powerpoint hairball a.k.a. "the Afghanisdag", presented to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal around 2010. His own rating?

1/10 "When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"

I've now posted an episode on the causal faithfulness condition. Faithfulness says much more than just that causal paths don't cancel, and raises foundational questions about causation, probability, and underdetermination.

youtu.be/k8p0OS-8u2Q

YouTube video by Causal Foundations Does Causation Imply Correlation? (Preview)

A sneak peak for next week's episode: Does Causation Imply Correlation?

youtu.be/5ocnRfA3PX8

As an expert on causation, I approve this reasoning!

YouTube video by Causal Foundations E7: The One Causal Principle You Can't Do Without

I'm excited to post this new episode on the causal Markov condition!

youtu.be/eQNfpaAURdU?...

YouTube video by BrokerMackler Broadcast News (1987) - News theme scene

Very few directors could pull off having these 45 second in the middle of a movie in a way that's both unrelated to any other plot point, but also integrated into its whole world in a way that adds to it.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=AW-B...

YouTube video by Center for Philosophy of Science Lunchtime Talk - Aydin Mohseni 9/19/25

Aydin Mohsehi @center4philsci.bsky.social. "A Bayesian Reduction of Causation in Causal Models".

The part about reduction was less original than I anticipated, but I really liked the link to exchangeability and how it links causation to Bayesian probabilities.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_PT...

What was the word count of the longest referee report you've ever written?

Who said you didn't know how to use social media?!?

Wait. Is The Martian just Saving Private Ryan in space? How many people does it take to save Matt Damon?

I have no idea what you’re talking about…