Sam Lair

Some of the recently declassified images of the NRO's Cold War-era JUMPSEAT HEO signals intelligence satellite program. lnkd.in/eGym2xBj

"My architecture is very cool, but you wouldn't know it. It goes to a different school."
Come on

Between this and the most recent budget, I don't think Golden Dome, whatever it means, is happening

All the analysis of slowed down vids, angles and POVs etc. experts share aside, the conclusive take within hours by all corners of the administration labelling Alex Pretti as a domestic terrorist is the make-or-break moment of this event.

That is set in stone. That is what is damning.

Man videotapes.

ICE officer approaches, shoves woman.
Shoves 2nd woman violently to ground.
Pepper sprays man.

Man tries helping woman #2 up.

ICE officer starts pulling man away.

4-5 other ICE approach, try to detain. Struggle ensues.
One screams "GUN" at least 4 times.

Federal law enforcement agents shot and killed a man in Minneapolis on Jan. 24 according to local police officials. DHS told Fox News that the man was “armed with a gun”. A video of the shooting appears to show that a gun was taken from the man before the first shot was fired. x.com/BillMelugin_...

[black SUVs pull up to a ski chalet in Vermont]
"You're a hard man to find...Mr. Bremer."
"Apparently not hard enough."
"We need you. One last job."

Exclusive: Russia likely placing new hypersonic missiles at former airbase in Belarus, researchers find Moscow is likely stationing new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a development that could bolster Russia’s ability to deliver missiles across Europ...

We have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile.
www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Along with @duitsmanms.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social, I think we found the first deployment site in Belarus of the the Oreshnik IRBM. 🧵

But think of the suburban backlash over property values and public parks!!

Thats tragic. What a legacy he leaves behind

The Most Awful Responsibility – Alex Wellerstein

My new book, THE MOST AWFUL RESPONSIBILITY goes on sale TODAY! It is a NEW argument about TRUMAN AND THE ATOMIC BOMB, from Hiroshima through the Korean War, from HarperCollins. alexwellerstein.com/writing/book...

Have had a post in Substack drafts now for months that I need to finish on why SBIs invite a world of fast-ascending (think Sprint ABM), nuclear-tipped DA-ASAT weapons.

Why America Stands to Lose If It Resumes Nuclear Testing China and Russia would finally be able to catch up.

Last year, I wrote an article for @foreignaffairs.com on why the US stands to lose the most from a resumption of nuclear testing.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

With everyone talking about sea otters, Taylor Swift, and the Monterey Aquarium, I want to share some of @slair.bsky.social’s thesis research. Because before David Packard funded the rescue of sea otters at the Aquarium, he helped kill about a thousand of them in a nuclear test.

Shallow Ramparts: Air and Missile Defenses in the June 2025 Israel-Iran War - Foreign Policy Research Institute Sam Lair, “Exhaustion and Inflection: Estimating Interceptor Expenditures in the Israel-Iran Conflict ,” Arms Control Wonk, June 24, 2025,

Get all the details, including what my analysis suggests for future regional conflicts here:
www.fpri.org/article/2025...

How did Iranian & Israeli air and missile defenses perform during the 12-Day War? Read all about it in my new piece
@fpri.bsky.social

TLDR: Poor Iranian AD enabled Israel's highly effective missile defeat strategy, BUT, even then, Israeli defenses were severely strained and almost broke down

American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe There are ample reasons for the United States to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.

@aaronstein1.bsky.social and I wrote for @fpri.bsky.social about everyone's favorite once-and-future GLCM, the Tomahawk, and its potential redeployment to Europe: open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe There are ample reasons for the United States to provide Ukraine with longer-range weapons.

I teamed up w/ @fpri.bsky.social fellow @slair.bsky.social to write about one of our favorite missiles :: American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe open.substack.com/pub/behindth...

$3.2 Million in Grants to Reduce Nuclear Dangers Awarded by Carnegie Corporation of New York | Carnegie Corporation of New York Selected through a national call for proposals, seven grantees will explore the implications of emerging and disruptive technologies on nuclear risks

Very pleased to announce that @fpri.bsky.social will be teaming up with/ @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social & @slair.bsky.social for a 2-year Carnegie Corps funded project. We will be working directly with commercial space on a roadmap to strengthen space security

www.carnegie.org/news/article...

Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a ...

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How might AI enable the (non)proliferation of nuclear weapons? In a new #OpenAccess article in Risk Analysis (@socriskanalysis.bsky.social), Dave Allison & I explore this question. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

I'm happy to share that my second book, Wiring an Empire: Information Networks and U.S. Global Power in the Cold War, is under advance contract with MIT Press.

FPRI Welcomes Dr. Jeffrey Lewis and Sam Lair as National Security Program Fellows - Foreign Policy Research Institute Philadelphia, PA

We have big plans @fpri.bsky.social and cannot wait to get started with our new distringuished fellow @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and fellow @slair.bsky.social

www.fpri.org/news/2025/09...

Iran’s Plan for a Post-War Military Revamp: Financing Gaps, Similar Mistakes, and Sanctions Risks Iran’s parliament is moving forward with a Plan to Strengthen the Armed Forces, presenting it as a path to rebuild after the 12-day war.

Wrote a Substack post about Iran's lackluster plan to rebuild its military after the 12-day war with Israel russiairan.substack.com/p/irans-plan...

New blog post up on Israeli & U.S. missile defense performance during True Promise II

I broke up the defenses into midcourse and terminal phases, & looked at how well each performed

Come for the effectiveness rates, stay for weird Arrow-3 launch buildings.

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

2025 Outrider Nuclear Reporting Summit This fall, in a former nuclear missile silo, we'll convene journalists at the nexus of health, climate, artificial intelligence, outer space, and national security to discuss how these issues are inte...

Journalists: Please join us at the @outrider.org Nuclear Reporting Summit on October 9-10!

This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment.

🔗 APPLY NOW: outrider.org/conference/2...

Please decker, it was only 8 million per year

The Countdown to Prevent Another Iranian Nuclear Crisis Just Began Three European countries triggered the snapback mechanism for sanctions on Tehran. Now, Washington needs to step up.

The Countdown to Prevent Another Iranian Nuclear Crisis Just Began

My thoughts on snapback for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

I wrote about Iran's missile failure rates during True Promise II
Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!

Link below: