Sam Lair

A lot of technical assessments of Iran’s nuclear program feel rushed. There’s an overreliance on fuel cycle basics and projections built on major unknowns while overlooking domestic factors eg institutional disruption, procurement challenges, and acute paranoia.

Congrats! Very excited

MDA FY26 procurement requests:
🔶 37 THAADs
🔶12 SM-3 IIAs
According to recent work by @slair.bsky.social the US Army might have used 39ish THAADs in defense of Israel. So this figure might count for the replacements and gives some credibility to Sam's figures.

History of U.S. Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy, 1969-1977, Detailed in New Declassified Documents Collection Washington, D.C., June 25, 2025 – During August 1976 talks with the Shah of Iran over the sale of U.S. nuclear reactors, U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger “made it clear that reprocessing [spent...

Ooh, new document collection from @nsarchive.bsky.social (1400 documents on the DNSA database, but with free sample documents on the post) illuminates the history of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy between 1969 and 1977, including negotiations with Iran and intel on South Korea
🗃️

Why America's giant bunker-busting bombs may have failed to reach their target Reaching Iran's most fortified nuclear enrichment site is a challenge, even for the world's biggest conventional weapons.

"It depends enormously on the type of rock."

My god

Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force.
www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

It's really incredible how clearly one can make out the locations and interceptor types. The 39 THAAD rounds alone cost $495 million.

www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13

Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article

For everyone being supremely confident that we can definitely detect and strike any future clandestine enrichment hall, let me remind you that North Korea built an entire enrichment cascade at Yongbyon and the IC completely missed it.

JCPOA > MOP

Considering how deep into Iran Shahroud is, by design, that would be another difficult strike for Israel to pull off, and one at the limits of the IAF's range.

Much of the part of the targeted area is still standing, and there is another production line to the northeast that wasn't hit.

I could be wrong, but my sense is if the Israelis want to put this site out of action for a long time, they would have to hit it again

The Israelis finally hit the solid propellant production plant at Shahroud, but not as extensively as I would have expected

A large casting building was destroyed, along with two high-bay buildings in one of the new solid propellant lines

Thanks as always to our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

In sum, while the fire last week at this base in Shiraz might have been an accident thanks to poor upkeep, the fires yesterday were more likely to have been from Israeli bombing. Fin

We saw something similar at Imam Ali near Khorramabad before the October 2024 strike as well.

Controlled burns to remove dead vegetation may be a part of routine upkeep at Iranian missile bases to prevent exactly this from happening. There was a big fire at Kermanshah last year which might have been for that reason, but also could have been an accident

Fires started by Iranian missile launches are common! The same thing happened at this very base during the strikes in October

There was a big fire at this base a few days ago, but that was more likely started by missile launches during a retaliatory strike than from Israeli attacks, as the base was undamaged until June 21

Satellite imagery from our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social confirms the Israelis hit one of the missile bases near Shiraz the night of June 20-21.

Support buildings and a missile checkout building were destroyed and started a fire. Possible damage to UGF entrances but its not clear. A🧵

Imagery of Natanz from this morning courtesy of Airbus shows the crater left by Massive Ordinance Penetrators (MOPs) over the underground enrichment halls

While there was discussion over whether the centrifuges had been damaged by the Israeli strikes, they're almost certainly damaged now.

New imagery of Isfahan from this morning courtesy of Airbus shows the damage from U.S. Tomahawk strikes

The strike focused on the uranium conversion plant, hitting buildings undamaged or partially damaged by past Israeli strikes

Lots of the damage to the fuel plate/zirconium plant on the north side was done the night of June 20-21 by the Israelis.

Our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social captured the damage in their daily 3m

Remember Decker's golden rule: when crisis starts, instead of immediately posting stream of consciousness, stand up, pour yourself a strong drink, and do something else. The takes can wait an hour or two.

If Iran potentially having 8,000 missiles in five years was truly one of the main reasons why Israel decided they had to strike now, that is not a great endorsement of missile defense being deescalatory. Instead we see a missile arms race leading directly to war.

In the words of the Blessed Saint, Thomas Crombie Schelling: "Most of what we call civilization depends on reciprocal vulnerability."

Similarly, the missile checkout building at the Isfahan south base was destroyed. UGF entrances were damaged, along with many support buildings

Surprising the UGF entrances didn't seem to have been hit at the north base, but we will have to wait for high-res stuff to be sure

We can now see the damage from Israeli strikes on the missile bases in Isfahan thanks to the daily 3m images from our friends @planetlabs.bsky.social

All the missile checkout buildings were destroyed at the Isfahan north base, likely hampering Iran's ability to generate strikes from there