Jeffrey Sun

Between the three options of preventative action now, mass starvation later, or a refugee crisis, I think it's obvious what we should be trying for.

Climate projections are often SUPER uncertain, but the uncertain statements are of the form "X will look exactly like this." But we know it will be affected somehow. In this case, we know that ANY monsoon disruptions can hurt profoundly.

But more seriously, ANY disruption to the monsoon’s timing OR intensity can drastically harm its harvest. Early, and fields can flood; late, and drought can kill crops before rain comes; too long, crops can be washed away; too short, crops can dry up and the water table be depleted.

Its groundwater is depleting faster than almost anywhere on Earth. The water table depth in Dhaka has dropped from 75 to 25 meters from 1996 to 2023, projected to fall to 120 meters by 2050. Sea level rise and storm surge are already hurting crops, as sea water erodes the land and salts the earth.

Bangladesh is highly dependent on agriculture and vulnerable to climate and economic shocks. 40% of the population is employed in labour-intensive agriculture and it is still a net food importer! With a GDP/cap under US$2,600, it has very little ability to handle a loss of agricultural productivity.

This population density is extremely dependent on the regularity of the monsoon weather pattern. Key points:

1. It is highly likely that the monsoon will be dramatically affected.
2. If this happens, then without dramatic adaptation, millions in Bangladesh may die.

I am sometimes asked which single impact of climate change I think will be worst. I usually say that nothing keeps me up at night as much as Bangladesh. A country with over 174 million people (more than Canada, Italy, and the UK combined) living in an area less than one third the size of California.

"Because I say so."
"Are you enforcing a law? It's my right to use a public street."
"You can do what I say you can do."
"I don't think that's how it works."
"If you want to keep talking to me, you have to put your hands above your head"

I walked away. Glad to be getting out of this country...

Conversation I just had walking home around Columbia University:

Cop: "You can't go through here."
Me: "Why, is it illegal?"
"This street is closed."
"I don't understand, is it illegal for me to go through?"
"I'll stop you if you do."
"Right, but is it against the law? This is a public street."
1/

Someone: "I wish that America would serve as an example to countries around the world"

Monkey's paw: "As you wish"

Source, 2023 Charlie Kirk interview: www.truthnetwork.com/show/the-cha...

Text, reading: "Joe Biden has led illegal aliens from well over a hundred countries by the millions. So just imagine the logistics involved in getting illegal aliens back to Pakistan, Cambodia, and yes, Mexico, the Northern Triangle, Brazil, South America, Panama, China, all throughout the Middle East, and so on and so forth, all throughout the continent of Africa. It is an undertaking every bit as significant and every bit as daring and ambitious, for example, as building the Panama Canal. It is a great undertaking. And so President Trump has outlined a plan that involves building large-scale staging grounds near the border, most likely in Texas because of the existing infrastructure there, right, the roads, the jeeps, the aircraft, the personnel. And so right now when we think of Border Patrol processing facilities, right, we think under the Biden administration of intake facilities. President Trump is going to build output, throughput facilities. So you go around the country arresting illegal immigrants in large-scale raids."

Text, reading, "You have to have somewhere to put them. Again, because if you do a raid, let's say you go to a food processing facility where you know there's a lot of illegal workers. That raid might net illegal aliens just that one raid, right, from two dozen countries. So most countries will refuse to let you take back an alien from a different country. Mexico is not taking illegal aliens from Vietnam, and you could force them back, of course, but that's also a much quicker trip, right, if you're a Vietnamese illegal alien, it's much more inconvenient to be sent back to Vietnam. So you build these facilities where then you're able to say, you know, hypothetically, three times a day are the flights back to Mexico. Two times a day are the flights back to the Northern Triangle, right. On Monday and Friday are the flights back to different African countries, right."

Text, reading, "On Thursday and Sunday are the flights back to different Asian countries. So you create this efficiency by having these standing facilities where planes are moving off the runway constantly, probably military aircraft, some existing DHS assets. And that's how you're able to scale and achieve the efficiency. Then in terms of personnel, you go to the red state governors and you say, give us your National Guard. We will deputize them as immigration enforcement officers. They know their states, they know their communities, they know their cities. So it's not like you're asking somebody to move away from their family, away from their home. This is sometimes a complaint as well. You take a National Guardsman from Alabama, you know, you put him on a border assignment for two years and he'd be away from his loved ones and so forth."

Text, reading, "Well, you solve that problem. The Alabama National Guard is going to arrest illegal aliens in Alabama and the Virginia National Guard in Virginia. And if you're going to go into an unfriendly state like Maryland, well, there would just be Virginia doing the arrest in Maryland, right, very close, very nearby. So you have experienced ICE veterans who are leading the operations and then you scale up the personnel by bringing in both other federal law enforcement officers, you know, think DEA, ATF, et cetera, and then the National Guardsmen. And then we're the ones who provide them to state and local sheriffs as well, too. That's the basic idea logistically for how you're able to carry out a deportation operation at that monumental magnitude. So let me add, let's just go through scale here. How many people, how many foreign national invaders will America have because of Biden at the end of four years? Well, I mean, even using conservative numbers, I mean, you're going to be looking at 10 million illegals that Biden would have let in."

I urgently encourage everyone, everywhere to read Stephen Miller's full account of his deportation plans

Key points:
- "Large-scale staging grounds near the border"
- Large-scale raids across the country
- Deputizing red state National Guards to raid in red and blue states
- 10 million deportations

Photo of Senator Chris Van Hollen with Kilmar Abrego Garcia.

I said my main goal of this trip was to meet with Kilmar. Tonight I had that chance. I have called his wife, Jennifer, to pass along his message of love. I look forward to providing a full update upon my return.

New dystopia just dropped

(Currently #3 in my personal list of most dystopian papers, after the one showing that congress members vote for war more often after their sons leave conscription age, and the one measuring what happens to patients when private equity firms acquire elder care facilities)

Liberal operatives planted 'stop the steal' buttons at conservative conference | CBC News Two Liberal Party staffers attended last week's Canada Strong and Free Networking Conference where they planted buttons that used Trump-style language and highlighted division within the Conservative ...

This is really, really stupid. And the first thing I've seen since the US election that could really hurt the LPC.

They need to immediately fire those responsible and completely disavow this kind of thing to regain a credible claim to respectability.

www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

I'm sorry, this account has done some great work and I'm very glad for it, but you're really squandering your credibility here.

Anyone can see you could just:
- post the numbers as comments in a single thread
- make a separate numbers account

You really risk cultivating an echo chamber audience

Yes! Also that objectivity looks biased as long as there is someone who disagrees with you.

We've seen objective statements framed as opinions again and again: "vaccines work", "dinosaurs once existed", "smoking causes lung cancer," "CO2 emissions cause warming", etc., etc.

Canada will no longer cover travel costs of experts it nominates to UN's climate science body | CBC News In a sudden and unexplained change from previous decades, the federal government has stopped covering the travel costs of Canadian experts volunteering for the next major global climate science assess...

This is very disappointing to see. I have some research funds to spare -- if any Canadian climate scientists lack travel funding for the IPCC, please contact me and I will try to help out.

www.cbc.ca/news/science...

This is very disappointing to see. I have some research funds to spare -- if anyone lacks travel funding for the IPCC, please contact me and I will try to help out.

How delulu is it to expect the U.S. to bring "Chinese peasants" to their knees through tariffs?

1. China's GDP (PPP) is larger than the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Australia combined.

2. Exports to the U.S. account for 2.8% of Chinese GDP.

White House last week: We are going to make you richer than rich, every American will travel to work in a self-driving golden chariot that runs on caviar and rubies

White House this week: Insincere of Americans to ask for more money when they already have access to the noble potato

Great to see how much movement there is in the U.S. right now! Even if it's a little disappointing that the stock market got people out where the ethnic cleansing did not

Why Canada is on the cusp of a housing construction crisis | CBC News Housing is about to get a lot more expensive in the next decade if the federal government’s immigration program bringing in skilled workers isn’t revamped. Many in the construction industry say there ...

As an economist who studies housing among other things, "You can't have cheap housing unless the government admits a large number of unskilled immigrants" is not only wrong, it sounds like a hostage negotiation.

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

I've been saying this but not sure how to get people to listen: the state ceases to exist when it can no longer process payments

Wikipedia currently lists the president of USIP as "Disputed." But it's still not a coup, right?

Like, I understand that there is a lot going on right now, but that would potentially be a thousand times bigger than anything else going on

Total governmental collapse, engineered so Peter Thiel and his buddies can effectively become warlords

But the idea is like 15% too nerdy to break through...

Maybe the most radical opinion I have is: I really think they are going to deliberately and irrevocably destroy the SSA, IRS, and treasury codebases.

I don't think many people realize that or understand what it will mean

The state effectively ceases to exist when it can no longer process payments.

The BBC has a hard time spelling "victim" apparently

Also, we simply cannot predict out to 2100. Even with many strong assumptions, proper error bounds are so big the prediction is basically "it could impact GDP a tiny bit or a huge amount, we really don't know."

E.g. AR6 estimates of 2100 warming have bounds like 0.5C-5C or something crazy like that

I'm a climate economist: GDP only captures one piece of the impacts.

Such a model should not be interpreted as saying, "CC slightly impacts productive capacity and nothing else."

Like, "Model finds CC only reduces flamingo populations 5%" doesn't mean no other impacts