Randy Thanthong-Knight

Firms See Canada Escaping Worst Tariff Outcomes, Survey Shows Uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s trade policy is curbing Canadian business investment and consumer spending, though firms see the economy avoiding a bad recession, central bank surveys sh...

Uncertainty about US President Donald Trump’s trade policy is curbing Canadian business investment and consumer spending, though firms see the economy avoiding a bad recession, central bank surveys show.

‘I Won’t Be Going’: Canadians Explain Their US Boycott to the Central Bank Canadians say they’re ramping up their boycott of US travel and products in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the country’s central bank is taking notice.

Canadians say they’re ramping up their boycott of US travel and products in response to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, and the country’s central bank is taking notice.

“I won’t be going to the US anytime soon,” one respondent told the bank. “I don’t feel good about spending my money there.”

Canadian Consumer Spending Loses Steam in Second Quarter Canadian retail sales grew at the fastest pace this year in June, according to an official estimate, bouncing back from a slowdown in May.

Canadian retail sales grew at the fastest pace this year in June, according to an official estimate, bouncing back from a slowdown in May.

*June sales likely +1.6% m/m
*May sales -1.1% and April +0.4%
*2Q sales estimate +0.4% q/q, the weakest quarterly pace in a year

Canada Inflation Accelerates, Cementing July Rate Pause Canadian consumer prices accelerated for the first time in four months and underlying price pressures were firmer, likely keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates later this month.

Canadian consumer prices accelerated for the first time in four months and underlying price pressures were firmer, likely keeping the central bank from cutting interest rates on July 30.

*CPI +1.9% y/y in June, up from 1.7% in May
*The index +0.1% m/m last month
*Core rates +3.05%, up from 3%

Canada Unexpectedly Adds 83,100 Jobs, Biggest Gain of 2025 The Canadian economy shrugged off tariff uncertainty as the labor force added the most jobs in six months and the unemployment rate surprisingly fell, supporting another interest rate pause from the B...

The Canadian economy shrugged off tariff uncertainty, adding the most jobs in six months with the unemployment rate falling for the first time since January.

*Employment +83,100 in June
*Jobless rate fell 0.1 pp to 6.9%
*Part-time work made up 84% of job gains
*Private +47,000; public +23,000

Trump’s 35% Tariff Bulldozer Tests Carney’s Strategy of Avoiding Conflict It seems that nothing Canada has tried so far has shielded it from the threats of Donald Trump.

It seems that nothing Canada has tried so far has shielded it from the threats of Donald Trump.

Love this quote from @karl-schamotta.bsky.social: “There was hope that there was light at the end of the tunnel — unfortunately it appears that light is a train.”

US Sees 33% Drop in Car Trips by Canadians as Summer Travel Starts Canadians are committed to ditching US travel, taking the fewest number of car trips there in the year’s first half since at least 2017, excluding the pandemic.

Canadians are committed to ditching US travel, taking the fewest number of car trips there in the year’s first half since at least 2017, excluding the pandemic.

*Canadians returned from 8m trips in 1H, vs. 11m in 2024
*Canadian return trips by car from the US -33% y/y in June
*And by air -22% y/y

Trump Immigration Crackdown Sends More Asylum Seekers North A growing number of migrants in the US are heading north to seek asylum, even as Canada adopts increasingly restrictive immigration policies of its own.

A growing number of migrants in the US are heading north, even as Canada adopts increasingly restrictive immigration policies of its own.

*Saint-Bernard-de-Lacolle crossing saw asylum claims jumped by more than 400% y/y, first six days of July
*Claims +128% in June; +82% so far this year

Top CEOs Want Canada to Build a Strategic Minerals Reserve for Defense Canada should become a world leader in producing and processing raw materials for military equipment and defense systems, according to an influential business group.

Canada should become a world leader in producing and processing raw materials for military equipment and defense systems, according to the Business Council of Canada.

Canada Economy Set for Contraction in Second Quarter The Canadian economy is on track for a modest decline this quarter, yet isn’t deteriorating as fast as some economists feared.

The Canadian economy is on track for a modest decline this quarter, yet isn’t deteriorating as fast as some economists feared.

*April GDP -0.1% m/m
*May GDP also -0.1% m/m
*Assuming no growth in June, 2Q likely -0.3% q/q annualized, vs economist estimates of -0.5% and BOC forecast of 0% to -1.3%

Canada’s Youth Job Market Slumps Most Among Major Economies Young Canadians are facing a labor market that has deteriorated faster than in any other major advanced economy.

Youth unemployment in Canada jumped 3.6 pp over the past two years, the sharpest increase among the 25 largest OECD economies — including the US, UK and Australia.

As of May, one in seven Canadian youth can’t find work, and they’re more than twice as likely as other age groups to be unemployed.

Canada Inflation Holds at 1.7% in May as Core Pressures Cool Canadian consumer prices held steady while core measures eased slightly, likely giving some relief to Bank of Canada policymakers who had raised concerns about hotter underlying inflation prints in re...

Canadian consumer prices held steady while core measures eased slightly, likely giving some relief to Bank of Canada policymakers who had raised concerns about hotter underlying inflation prints in recent months.

*CPI rose 1.7% y/y in May, matching April's pace
*Core +3%, down from 3.1% in April

Immigration Curb Slashes Canada Population Growth Rate to Zero Tighter immigration rules have cut off the fuel from the Canadian population growth engine.

Tighter immigration rules have cut off the fuel from the Canadian population growth engine.

*Canada added just 20,107 people in 1Q
*That's 0% quarterly population growth vs. 1Q average of 0.3% over the past decade
*It's the slowest quarterly rate since records began in 1946, tied with 4Q of 2014

Harder to Cut With Core Inflation Firm, Bank of Canada Says Bank of Canada officials said it would be tough to cut the policy interest rate further if core inflation remains firm, but acknowledged more easing may be needed if the economy continues to weaken.

Bank of Canada officials said it would be tough to cut the policy interest rate further if core inflation remains firm, but acknowledged more easing may be needed if the economy continues to weaken.

Trump Ripping Up the Free Trade Playbook Comes With $1 Trillion Cost The ominous trajectory of the US president’s tariff overhaul looms over the G-7 gathering.

By 2030, Bloomberg Economics forecasts, if Trump’s current tariff regime endures, the global economy will be $1 trillion smaller than it would have been had the US remained in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

More Canadians Are Ditching US Road Trips With 38% Annual Drop Cross-border road trips to the US from Canada fell for a fifth straight month, a gloomy outlook for many American vacation spots once frequented by their northern neighbors during the peak summer trav...

Cross-border road trips to the US from Canada fell for a fifth straight month in May.

*Canadian-resident return trips by automobile from the US -38.1% y/y
*Canadians’ return trips by air from US -24.2%, versus +9.8% from other countries
*US car trips to Canada -8.4%

Tariff-Hit Factory and Wholesale Sales in Canada Fell in April Canada’s trade-driven sectors are showing clearer signs of a pullback in activity brought on by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Canada’s trade-driven sectors are showing clearer signs of a pullback in activity brought on by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

*Manufacturing sales fell 2.8% in April, the largest monthly drop since October 2023 and the lowest level since early 2022
*Wholesale sales dropped 2.3%

Canada Adds Just 8,800 Jobs, Unemployment Rises to 7% The Canadian economy eked out minor job gains, and the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month to the highest level since September 2016 outside of the pandemic.

The Canadian economy eked out minor job gains, and the unemployment rate rose for a third straight month to the highest level since September 2016 outside of the pandemic.

*Employment grew by 8,800 positions in May
*Jobless rate rose 0.1 ppt to 7%
*Number of unemployed people +13.8% y/y

Firms’ Less ‘Catastrophic’ Outlook Kept Canada Rates on Hold Businesses believing that the worst-case tariff scenarios were less likely to become reality helped convince Bank of Canada policymakers to stay on the sidelines this month.

Businesses believing that the worst-case tariff scenarios were less likely to become reality helped convince Bank of Canada policymakers to stay on the sidelines this month.

Canada Trade Deficit Hits Record as Trump Tariffs Crush Exports Canadian exports plunged by the most in nearly 17 years outside of the pandemic, widening the country’s merchandise trade deficit to the largest on record.

Canadian exports plunged by the most in nearly 17 years outside of the pandemic, widening the country’s merchandise trade deficit to the largest on record.

*Canada's trade deficit reached C$7.1 billion in April
*Total exports fell 10.8%; imports were down 3.5%
*Exports to the US plunged 15.7%

Economists Join Traders as Bets on Canada Interest-Rate Cut Fall Economists are abandoning their calls for monetary-policy easing in Canada next week as traders price in only a small chance of an interest-rate cut and the nation’s output beat all estimates.

Economists are abandoning their calls for monetary-policy easing in Canada next week as traders price in only a small chance of an interest-rate cut and the nation’s output beat all estimates.

BMO and RBC now expect no changes in rates next week, contrary to the cut they saw before.

Canada Economy Grows 2.2% in First Quarter, Beats All Forecasts A strong jump in tariff-driven exports fueled Canada’s growth at the start of this year, offsetting domestic weakness in other parts of the economy.

A strong jump in tariff-driven exports fueled Canada’s growth at the start of this year, offsetting domestic weakness in other parts of the economy.

*1Q GDP +2.2% annualized, up from 2.1% in 4Q
*Monthly GDP +0.1% in March and likely +0.1% in April
*Traders pared expectations for a June 4 rate cut

Carney’s Defense Spending Will Add Up to $46 Billion to Economy, CIBC Says The economic gains of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s defense spending boost will likely be worth more than double the planned investment costs, according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economists...

The economic gains of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s defense spending boost will likely be worth more than double the planned investment costs, according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economists.

Great view of King Charles and Queen Camilla from our Bloomberg Ottawa office during their visit to Canada

Canadians’ Return Travel From US Plunges as Trump Tariffs Hit Canadians have returned from 1.35 million fewer road trips to the US over the past two months than they did a year ago, eschewing crossing the border that US President Donald Trump called “artificial”...

Canadians have returned from 1.35 million fewer road trips to the US over the past two months than they did a year ago, eschewing crossing the border that US President Donald Trump called “artificial” and wanted removed.

Consumer Confidence Rises in Canada After Carney’s Election Win Canadians are growing more optimistic about the economy, as the conclusion of a national election relieves some anxiety around the country’s direction and US President Donald Trump’s threats.

Canadians are growing more optimistic about the economy, as the conclusion of a national election relieves some anxiety around the country’s direction and US President Donald Trump’s threats, according to the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index.

Canada Joblessness Hits 6.9% as Tariffs Strike Manufacturing Canada’s tepid pace of job creation last month sent the unemployment rate soaring back to a level last seen in November, the highest since January 2017 outside of the pandemic.

Canada’s tepid pace of job creation last month sent the unemployment rate soaring back to a level last seen in November, the highest since January 2017 outside of the pandemic.

*Employment grew by just 7,400 positions in April
*Jobless rate +0.2 percentage points to 6.9%