Andrew Leach

leachandrew.github.io/NIR/

No. He hasn’t stopped with this delusional nonsense. “We don’t need their oil. We don’t need their cars.” Don’t think for one minute this this is over. #cdnpoli

It shouldn't but, and I hope that remains true. But a free trade deal should also mean no tariffs, so I guess we'll see. But, if we get into turning off taps, the transshipment must be on the table.

The biggest issues are Sarnia and Montreal, which rely on Canadian crude moving through the US.

From last night. Don't let anyone convince you that "we export crude and import the refined products back to Canada." that's not how it works.

It's rhetoric brought from other industries where the scarcity lies at different points in the supply chain. Little profit in logs relative to lumber or furniture. Trees are plentiful. Large oil resources remain relatively scarce.

1. The returns on refining pale relative to extraction, and we're not short resources.
2. Labour has opportunity costs and refining is also one of the least labour intensive industries around.
3. We already do that.

Old, tired arguments based on mythology of where the margins lie in oil and gas.

bsky.app/profile/alea...

and that, in most months, we produce more than we need.

It should not be, but who knows?

Here's Canada's refined product sector. We basically produce what we use, with exports and imports on the margin for most products.

In theory, almost all of it.

We produce most of our own products. The bigger issue is that we move a lot of our crude *through* the US to Ontario and QC.

Very small net exporters.

Short production curtailment of what? Products? Or crude + bitumen?

Why?

It's EIA data for the US.

I don't understand what you mean? Almost all of our refined products do remain in the domestic market.

Too many Canadians are under the impression that we export crude and import refined products in our trade relationship with the US. The first is true, and the second is true to a much smaller degree only in some parts of Canada for some fuels. In general, we're net exporters of refined products too.

Offered without comment: almost all of the US supply of nuclear fuel is imported. Here's where it comes from:

Oh, hello existential dread and related feelings.

Correct.

There was never a time when every hard worker had a pension. And if you factor in the share that are public sector here, a class of people PP likely doesn't think of as hard workers on the whole, the story gets even more ridiculous.

We're going to go back to a time when every worker had powerful paycheques...

Wait, you're saying that every hard worker in Canada didn't have a powerful paycheque and a pension before Trudeau took office? Shocked.

Y-axis is, yes.

Share of pension coverage. Sorry, my screenshot cut off.

When was this Canada where "everyone who works hard gets a powerful paycheque and a pension?" And given that much of our remaining pension coverage is in the public service, how is PP going to make this happen? Expand the PS? Force private companies to offer pensions? Push unionization? What?

FWIW, I think the proportionality clause was and remains wrongly read by many, including Laxer. It does not place the burden on us that some have pretended.