Peter Fraser

Raw DOGEing?

Excellent article. Worth noting that US, EU+UK, Japan used to be 25% of world coal consumption (2010) but by 2027 this will be only 8%. China, India and other developing economies will determine when coal consumption peaks.

Actually the study doesn't conclude that the carbon footprint of LNG is larger than coal.
" ... this study does not present comparative results, for example of natural gas from imported LNG
compared to coal for production of a MWh of electricity in an export market for U.S. LNG" (page S-38).

Here's the link to the Memorandum of Understanding
www.ourchapter.ca/files/Compil...

Schedule G and H detail the money. In the short run, HQ pays either Churchill Falls (in which they have a share), or directly to NL Hydro $1 billion per year through 2027.

Congratulations @katherinehdixon.bsky.social
RAP has made a great choice.

Agree. All that nuclear. Interesting that it is top 30.

#energysky Came to Bluesky to find the good work of @glenpeters.bsky.social @hausfath.bsky.social @jessejenkins.bsky.social among others. The above is my first post - I suggest that it may be time to move on from global NZE by 2050.

Fundamentally, it is time we recognized that for Net Zero to be achieved globally (on any timescale) developing countries need to take the lead. The future of the global energy system will not be decided in Washington and Brussels, but in Beijing and Delhi. #IEA #UNFCCC

The IEA’s Announced Pledges scenario (yellow line) which assumes strict policies for the advanced economies (and for China) to support their net zero pledges, might be a better starting point for an ambitious scenario.

We need to move on from global Net Zero by 2050 to account for this. Future low emissions energy scenarios should instead look at how quickly developing economies will be able to peak and reduce their FF consumption, while developed countries accelerate action to reduce their own emissions.

Developing economies generally will not be able to shift instantly and painlessly from an economy that relies on increased use of fossil fuels to support economic growth to one that invests enough in clean energy to do this and displace existing fossil fuel use. It will take time.

While the developed countries need to accelerate existing trends of falling oil demand, developing countries would be required to instantly reverse their growth in oil demand. Same story with coal.

While the UNFCCC meant that developed countries should take the lead on combating climate change, the above figure shows that the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario relies on the opposite: developing countries would bear most of the burden to transform rapidly their energy systems.

These are graphs of oil demand in developed countries (AE) and developing countries (EMDE) both historical (in beige) and projections (blue, yellow and green lines). The green lines represent the IEA's Net Zero by 2050 scenario.

“Common but differentiated responsibilities”
This is the phrase from the UNFCCC that crossed my mind when I saw these graphs (part of Figure 3.30) in the International Energy Agency’s 2024 World Energy Outlook.

The chart, from the 2024 World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency, shows oil demand projections for developed countries (AE) and developing countries (EMDE).

Common but differentiated responsibilities and global NZE by 2050