Dustin Hinkley

Apparently we don’t even know who is paying the military anymore. Okay.

WAPO: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...

WSJ: www.wsj.com/world/asia/j...

NYT: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/21/w...

Interesting differences in framing...

Washington Post: Japan elects first female leader, a hawk who promotes ‘Japan First’

Wall Street Journal: Japan Gets Its First Female Leader, a Conservative Who Favors a Stronger Military

New York Times: Japan Has a New Leader, and She’s a Heavy Metal Drummer

The U.S. military has carried out a steady and significant buildup of forces in the Caribbean, as the Trump administration increases pressure on Venezuela. It is the largest deployment of U.S. forces in the region in decades. nyti.ms/4nuPMpj

Johnson wearing a jacket that's photoshopped to say "this has nothing to do with epstein"

And the craziest part is this was needless. Congress would've passed a military pay bill with near unanimous support! Congressional Ds have been begging Rs to bring a bill to pay the military to the floor! But Johnson refuses to gavel in because he doesn't want an Epstein vote.

Public diplomacy coup for Canada in San Francisco. Adaptability and allegiance.

if you're wondering what happened in Japan, here's an excellent explainer from a while back on the key role that Komeito played in the coalition - foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/03/j...

IIRC Komeito has an effective campaign operation that benefits the LDP, though the LDP standing aside for Komeito in certain constituencies also helps Komeito. If this is a lasting split then there would be significant impacts on both parties. Levi McLaughlin has a recent thread mentioning this.

Japan, ostensibly one of the least religious countries in the world, had its political order upended by the lay Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai. That is THE story about Friday's epochal shift in Japanese politics (thread follows):

I think Komeito brought unique benefits to the coalition like the loyalty and electoral effectiveness of its voter base.

I think that Komeito's departure is another step in Japan's march toward multi-party politics. I doubt that any other party would structurally fit with the LDP in a long-term coalition like Komeito did. I wonder if this will promote a new system of coalition formation in Japanese politics.

Within the past decade the LDP-Komeito coalition has steadily declined in its control of the Diet.
2016: Supermajority
2021: Majority
2024: Minority
2025: Dissolved

Red Sox beat the Yankees

All is well

NEW: Sen. Tammy Duckworth is calling for Pete Hegseth to resign.

"If this PR stunt proved anything, it's that the best thing Pete Hegseth can do to strengthen our military is resign in disgrace immediately."

Headlines: - 15% US auto tariff takes effect as trade deficit w/ Japan narrows - Allies wrap-up Resolute Dragon exercise, new missile deployments - Nippon Steel pledges investment as US exercises “golden share” - US, Japan launch defense AI cooperation for UAVs - US, Japan, ROK foreign ministers meet for the fourth time in 2025

Another issue of the US-Japan Alliance Digest has been published! It is a privilege to research, write, and publish this update on key foreign policy, defense cooperation, and economic security issues that drive US policy in the Indo-Pacific.

Link: spfusa.org/publications...

Defense analyst on Hegseth generals’ meeting: ‘A dangerous way to politicize the American military’ | CNN Former Defense Department official Kori Schake says US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump “did not well serve the American military today.”

Thank you @cnn.com for having me on to assess the Quantico disgrace

playing the baseball off

Red Sox in the playoffs

Reflecting on the 80th anniversary of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, I thought of this article I wrote for the Japan Society of Boston. It is still true that amid terror and desolation, there is a hope and obligation to create peace and revitalization.

www.japansocietyboston.org/post/the-pat...

Thinking about how Marco Rubio fired a bunch of diplomats working on Southeast Asia earlier this month

It's Asia week for the EU heads, with bost the EU-Japan and EU-China summits happening this week. Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa are visiting Osaka, Tokyo, and Beijing to meet with Shigeru Ishiba and Xi Jinping.

It is worth keeping an eye on.

Thank you to Jim McGovern for your decades of rules lawyering

The urban-rural divide (notwithstanding places like Sapporo or Yamanashi) between CDP (blue) areas and DPP (yellow) areas reminds me of the old divide at the center of the DPJ during its heyday.

System in crisis Combing through the results of a historic upper house election

It's been an extraordinary long day, but I wanted to try to pull together the most important developments in an extremely significant Japanese election. Take a look here: open.substack.com/pub/observin...

A slim minority is still a minority. I wonder if he will be able to stay even after the LDP has lost its majorities in both houses of the Diet in the past twelve months.

With the LDP being squeezed on all sides, do they have a way out with or without Ishiba?

The ruling coalition reduced to a minority in both houses of the Diet and a three way tie for second in the PR block vote. The public has spoken and they seem uncertain.

I just watched the Kpop Demon Hunter. It was well made and fun.

Did the Secretary-General of NATO really call the U.S. President "daddy"?

The NYC Democratic primary voters apparently do not think that Zohran Mamdani is a left wing radical.

This is good for other left wing radicals like him.

New York is always copying Boston. It seems inevitable that since Boston got a good mayor in 2021 now New York will try it out too a few years later.