Jay Sayre

@ucdavis.bsky.social Dept of #AgEcon is excited to announce our '25-26 #jobmarket candidates. These 16 #PhD students are doing great research in #agriculture, #development, #environment, #energy, #health, and #labor. Many presenting at #AAEA2025 in Denver July 27-29! are.ucdavis.edu/phd/job-cand...

California grows about 1/3 of the country's vegetables, 3/4 of its fruits & nuts, and employs almost 900,000 people, says @kairyssdal.bsky.social
“We’re not getting an influx of new, young workers," says Ali Hill, @ucanr.bsky.social agricultural labor economist

After early reprieve from immigration enforcement, farming industry reckons with raids The Trump administration's immigration enforcement mostly left farms and meat packing plants alone, until coordinated raids last week. Now, President Trump is signaling continued support for farmers.

As long as immigration sweeps are happening in the communities that farm workers live in, farm workers will continue being detained and deported.

Farm workers deserve REAL protections, so they can continue working without fear.

www.npr.org/2025/06/16/n...

For some perspective, the federal government funds *over half* of all scientific research and development conducted by the @uofcalifornia.bsky.social -- and UC is collectively responsible, in turn, for over 8% of all academic research conducted in the United States.

In case you missed this, you can watch the recording here:
ucdavis.zoom.us/rec/share/_0...

Image of the Port of Stockton. 📸: Downtowngal, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26671447

This Monday I'm hosting a webinar titled "Navigating Trade Policy Uncertainty in California Agriculture" on Monday, May 19th at 2pm. Opportunities will be available to ask questions about current trade policy at the end. Register now: ucdavis.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

Pandemic “doom shopping” is clogging up shipping ports. That means a lot of food destined for export is getting stuck. Ocean carriers are making it more difficult and costly to ship American food exports. Industry groups want federal regulators to clamp down.

Thanks! My sense is this was a 2020-21 problem, when consumers shifted towards goods and away from services. Demand to ship goods from Asia was so high that it was more costly to spend time loading 🇺🇸 ag goods. Large imbalances in shipping demand likely harmful as well thecounter.org/pandemic-sho...

Shipping costs, American agricultural exports, and bilateral trade deficits Tariffs and bilateral trade deficits

I've written more about this here:
uccecon.ucdavis.edu/blog/shippin...
Thanks for reading!

Ironically, these tariff policies may worsen the trade deficits they aim to fix -- Wong (2022) finds when accounting for supply and demand for global shipping, restrictionist trade policies increase bilateral trade deficits
(7/7)

With fewer imports arriving due to tariffs, fewer ships are available to carry U.S. goods out. The Port of LA as of this week reports a 44% drop in docked vessels.
(6/7)

Top 10 vessel countries for Californian Agricultural exports, 2022. The top 3 countries are Panama, Marshall Islands, and China.

A new Section 301 action on shipbuilders and vessels will increase shipping costs. 🇨🇳 builds over 40% of the world’s cargo fleet, and Chinese vessels are in third place for carrying CA ag exports. Without alternatives, American exporters will likely pay these higher costs
(5/7)

Taking this in mind, it’s worth thinking about the implications of several recent events for the competitiveness of Californian (and more broadly, American) agricultural exports
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This isn’t just about 🇨🇳. Assembling US port level freight dates, Woan Foong Wong (AEJ: Applied 2022) finds U.S. exports pay 61% of the freight rate U.S. imports do, given supply and demand for shipping in each direction.
(3/7)

Given our bilateral trade deficit, often times cargo 🛳️ from China come full and return relatively empty. To avoid wasted capacity, shipping companies discount rates on US exports headed back to 🇨🇳. As a result, cheaper freight rates yield more competitive 🇺🇸 ag exports
(2/7)

Regarding the discussion of bilateral trade deficits, I think there is a missing point: our trade imbalance lowers shipping costs for current U.S. exporters, which boosts the competitiveness of US exports, including Californian ag exports. A short thread below 🧵
(1/7)

Hi there - I'm most interested in agriculture and its effects on the environment, so anything about biodiversity, ag emissions, forest loss, crop shocks, etc. wld be interesting. Best

“5/10: The EU's Deforestation-free Supply Chain Regulation (EUDR) aims to prohibit imports of seven products—including cattle, cocoa, rubber, and wood—unless exporters meet various burdensome compliance requirements, including due diligence and geolocation data. It is estimated the EUDR will potentially impact $8.6 billion worth of annual U.S. agricultural and industrial exports.” 7/10: Illegal logging and illegal mining in South America, particularly in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, fuel environmental degradation and create unfair competition that harms U.S. businesses committed to responsible sourcing and compliance with environmental laws. These illicit activities, which usually involve transnational criminal organizations, distort global commodity markets by driving down prices and allowing bad actors to undercut legitimate American exporters.

I’m losing my mind here. USTR made a list of “Unfair trade practices” they’re retaliating against, complaint number 5 is that the EU cares too much about stopping illegal deforestation, complaint number 7 is that the South Americans are doing too much illegal deforestation

Seems like the quote I gave in this article predicting that the Trump administration would use deforestation as a potential justification to limit imports was pretty prescient given this recent USTR tweet

Certainly the decisions that led to new almond trees in the last couple years replacing mature walnut orchards here in Yolo Co seem predicated on continued access to export markets

So while I wouldn't say all acreage planted has been aimed towards export markets, certainly it's fair to say that CA wouldn't have as many almonds or pistachios without the expanded market size from export access

For pistachios, exports and domestic sales have grown more comparably (domestic sales have increased 8x, with exports increasing 11x)

Most new production from almond orchards planted in the last ~3 decades has gone to export markets (CA almond exports have more than quadrupled, while domestic sales have less than doubled).

America's avocado obsession is destroying Mexico's forests. Is there a fix? With deforestation rising and violence a threat, a bold initiative uses satellites to ensure supermarkets sell ethical, eco-friendly avocados.

America’s avocado obsession is destroying Mexico’s forests. Is there a fix?

grist.org/food-and-agr...

#Mexico #Food #Avocado #Avocados #Forests #Climate

YouTube video by ABC10 Newsom rebukes Trump tariffs, asks nations to exempt California products

While it'd be great if countries did not retaliate against CA exports 🍷🌰🌾, I tell ABC 10 that CA's status as the 5th largest economy still doesn't allow it to set independent trade policy as part of the 🇺🇸 and it is unlikely trading partners will differentiate, either
youtu.be/Rp_on9E6FVA?...

"Even if you're buying produce from a California farm, because there's less supply, supply and demand sort of dictates that the price of all goods are going to go up," @jaysayre.bsky.social @ucdavisare.bsky.social & @ucanr.bsky.social told ABC10 about tariffs

YouTube video by ABC10 Tariffs impact on California agriculture

I spoke with Becca Habegger at ABC10 Sacramento about the effects of tariffs on CA agricultural producers and consumers: youtu.be/9GrWLw5kIQY

Fun day at #CalAgDay2025 at the Capitol! With🍊🥑, 4-H bunnies🐰🐰 & @jaysayre.bsky.social

What Trump's escalating trade wars mean for your grocery bill Climate change and bird flu are already driving up food prices. Trump's tariffs are about to make it worse.

What Trump’s escalating trade wars mean for your grocery bill.

Climate change and bird flu are already driving up food prices. Trump's tariffs are about to make it worse.

grist.org/food-and-agr...

#Tariffs #Trade #Climate #Trump #Groceries

Reading into the USMCA text now and found this: "Canada and the United States shall not permit the sale of any product as
Tequila or Mezcal unless it has been manufactured in Mexico". California's upstart agave sector will need to make pulque or rebrand, I guess

Of course, even compensation was uneven -- some farmers were made more than whole, others (coincidentally in less politically advantageous counties) were quite undercompensated due to losses.
giannini.ucop.edu/filer/file/1...