@corystahle.bsky.social
Indeed Hiring Lab Economist
Read the full analysis here:
www.hiringlab.org/2025/05/09/e...
A graph showing the relationship between the average time it took to fill jobs on Indeed and the US quits rate. The lines clearly moved in opposite directions after the pandemic.
🚨 New from Indeed Hiring Lab: The Relationship Between Economic Trends and Time to Hire
During the post-pandemic hiring boom of 2021 and 2022, job postings and quits surged, and employers sped up hiring to lock in workers. The labor market has cooled since then, and hiring is taking longer.
However, there are some signs of underlying weakness in the household survey side of today's job report.
The share of workers who were long-term unemployed (out of work for 27 weeks or more) continues to creep up and jumped to 23.5% in April, the highest share in three years.
#numbersday
Solid jobs report, but the headline data doesn't match the vibes.
- Jobs: Up 177k
- Unemployment: Flat at 4.2%
- Healthcare jobs: +51k, transportation and warehousing: +29k, federal government: -9k
Good for now, but the market can’t escape rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever.
You can't drive a car backwards (very well at least).
A lot has happened since March and the view forward through the windshield is marred by growing concerns around US trade policy and tariffs.
Read my full JOLTS statement here:
www.hiringlab.org/2025/04/29/m...
Today’s (March) JOLTS data offers another glimpse of labor market conditions – but only from the rearview mirror.
- Job openings: Down 288k from Feb, but down 901k from Mar 2024.
- Layoffs: Low overall at 1.0%
- Hires rate: Stable near 2013 levels
- Quits: Trending up so far this year, now at 2.1%
Is uncertainty starting to affect the labor market? Indeed's daily index of job postings thru Mar 14 points to ongoing cooling in listings w/ largest declines in DC/Md but also Illinois & Wash & every state + national index below early Oct levels--no crash here outside DC but some loss of momentum
24.03.2025 19:36 — 👍 196 🔁 22 💬 3 📌 0
Read the full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/03/11/j...
11.03.2025 15:41 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Today's JOLTS report showed that the US labor market remained stable (frozen?) in January.
A lot has obviously happened since January that didn't show up in this report. More recent data from the Indeed Job Postings Index suggests a potential scenario of renewed cooling in the coming months.
Other CPS concerns: People working part-time due to economic reasons spiked in February. While the number is noisy from month to month, it has shown a clear increase since January 2023.
Weekly hours have been in steady decline since late 2021, but have dropped more sharply in recent reports.
Beyond the concern of federal government job losses, some continuations of not-so-great trends in the household survey.
Prime-age labor force participation is trending down and for men is back to where it was before the pandemic.
Feb 2025 Jobs Day takeaways:
- Solid headline job growth numbers: +151,000
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.1% but remains low
- Federal employment fell by 10,000, but the total number was likely higher, given data collection that happened relatively early in February.
Despite the generally sturdy foundation, there are a few small cracks worth monitoring. Hiring and quitting remain near decade lows, and growth in prime-age labor force participation is showing signs of slowing. In the next report, we'll also get a feel for the impact of California wildfires.
07.02.2025 14:38 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Revisions put a fresh coat of paint on today's jobs report but didn't change the story.
This is still a solid labor market defined by low unemployment, low layoffs, and payroll gains above the estimated 100,000 needed to keep up with population growth.
#numbersday
Today's JOLTS report continued to show potential signs of labor market stabilization with several measures moving sideways from the previous month.
- Quits rate low but unchanged @ 2%
- Hires rate low but unchanged @ 3.4%
Read my full statement here: www.hiringlab.org/2025/02/04/d...
More evidence of Chair Powell's statement that “the labor market is not a source of significant inflationary pressures” in today's ECI data.
- YoY private-sector wage growth down to 3.6% in Q4 (compared to 4.3% the year before)
- Clear quarterly and annual slowing for among ex-incentive paid jobs
Big revisions to the monthly jobs report are coming next month.
This is not government "cooking the books". These revisions show why you should trust US official statistics.
Today's jobs report is likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve’s confidence that the labor market still has solid momentum and that they have room to wait on interest rate-cutting decisions.
#jobsday #bls #econsky
We'll get a clearer picture of 2024's labor market after revisions next month.
For now, I would characterize 2024 as a tale of two halves. Some concerns around rising unemployment, declining hires & quits in the first half of the year. Started seeing signs of stabilizing in the second half though.
Final jobs report of 2024 was a good one!
- Job gains beat expectations, up +256,000
- Unemployment is down to 4.1%, but more importantly, it seems to be stable over the last 6 months.
- Prime-age EPOP still concerning and looking dangerously close to reversing its multi-year increasing trend.
Why are retail hires rates lower now than before the pandemic?
In short, retail workers aren't quitting or getting laid off.
Retail layoffs are much lower now than pre-pandemic (1.1% in Nov 2024 vs. 1.9% in Feb 2020). Quits are also down from 3.4% in 2020 to 2.5% today.
#jolts #bls #econsky
It's hard to talk about November JOLTS data without mentioning the retail industry. Job postings for seasonal/holiday work on Indeed were below trend in November.
The hires rate for retail workers in today's JOLTS report was 3.9%, well below the 5.4% pre-pandemic rate.
Pretty solid JOLTS report today!
- Job openings posted their first back-to-back gain since March 2022.
- Layoffs remain historically low
- 3-month averages starting to show (possible) early signs of stabilization
#jolts #bls #econsky
High-earning workers (4th quartile) experienced the greatest drop in real wage growth in 2021 and 2022 but they have recovered since.
12.12.2024 19:59 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
According to November CPI and Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker data, a majority of workers are getting inflation-adjusted raises (57% in Nov).
That is much higher than a 43% low in May 2022. However, the share has leveled off since summer 2023 and now sits around pre-pandemic levels.
Interesting story on Utah's growing tech scene. I drive through this area often and it seems like there is a new tech office building everytime I do.
12.12.2024 14:48 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0By the end of the month, things had returned to 2019 levels, which is encouraging, but it looks like employers chose to tackle Black Friday with fewer workers this year.
The return to 2019 trends and robust consumer spending suggest that the pullback is likely a blip, but it's worth watching.
Retail trade shed 28,000 jobs in November.
Indeed data shows a similar story: employer demand for holiday hires fell below the trend in November. Holiday hiring kicked off around the same time in 2024 and rose in line with 2019 levels before flattening in November.
Overall, still feels like a decent report. Certainly, not one that jeopardizes a soft landing. Recent statements from the Fed about having time to be cautious are probably still true, but definitely need to keep an eye on concerns in the household survey.
www.hiringlab.org/2024/12/06/n...
Retail also shed -28,000 (seasonally adjusted) jobs in November, signaling some cooling there. May also have some impact from a later Black Friday that delayed hiring beyond the data collection period.
Consumer spending reports have still been encouraging, but good to keep an eye on.
